Kovalev vs. Shabranskyy preview

By Boxing News - 11/24/2017 - Comments

Image: Kovalev vs. Shabranskyy preview

By Juan Flores: Sergey “Krusher” Kovalev (30-2-1, 26 KOs) will looking to show that he’s been physically rejuvenated and mentally rebuilt for his fight tonight against Vyacheslav Shabranskyy (19-1, 16 KOs) on HBO for the vacant WBO light heavyweight title at Madison Square Garden in New York.

(Photo credit David Spagnolo/Main Events)

This is the lucky break that Kovalev needed with the World Boxing Organization choosing to put their vacant WBO light heavyweight title on the line. The Shabranskyy fight was originally supposed to be a tune-up/confidence booster for Kovalev. The WBO threw Kovalev a bone by letting him fight for their vacant WBO 175 lb. title.

Even if Kovalev wins the belt, it could be a last hoorah if he’s unable to hold onto it for more than one fight. There are plenty of sharks swimming around in the light heavyweight division that will immediately circle Kovalev and look to snatch his WBO title from him in his next fight. If Kovalev no longer has the youth and physical skills that he once possessed, that fact will be borne out immediately when he defends his title against his first quality challenger.

You could understand why Kovalev would be broken mentally. He’s lost his last 2 fights to American Andre Ward, and he’s looked nothing like the fighter that he once was. Some boxing fans feel that at 34, Kovalev isn’t the same guy he was 1000 yesterday’s ago. He’s aged, and no longer the same ‘Krusher’ that he was in the past, according to a lot of fans. Kovalev will need to show that his losses to Ward were more of a reflection of him not being trained right, and not using the right game plan. It goes without saying that Kovalev fought Ward the wrong way in both fights. But at the same time, Kovalev was going to have problems anyway in those fights due to the fatigue factor that he experienced at the midpoint of both of those bouts.

“I’m here fighting for all boxing fans, here and worldwide. I’m still alive,” said Kovalev. “I’ve reloaded and got a lot of new motivation in my head, mentally. From my last losses, I didn’t break. These losses didn’t break me mentally. It was a good experience for me. I should follow my goals on a clear road without any wrong things, any baggage on my back,” said Kovalev.

I don’t know if you can accurately characterize Kovalev’s two defeats to Andre Ward as good things. I think they’re the opposite of good. They’re very bad. Kovalev was not only beaten in those 2 bouts against Ward, he was exposed. Ward created a blueprint in how to beat Kovalev by showing the other fighters in boxing that if you fight hard, you’ll tire the Russian out and he’ll be easy pickings after round 5.

Ward also showed that Kovalev has no ability to take body shots of any kind. The shots that Ward hit Kovalev with to the body weakened him quickly. Even though Kovalev took the body shots, he was weakened by them. In the second fight, was doubled over after getting hit with body shots that landed on the belt line. Contrary to popular opinion, those punches were NOT low blows. Those 3 shots that Ward hit Kovalev with in round 3 were all punches that landed on the belt line. They weren’t low blows. Kovalev couldn’t handle them, but that’s his fault. For Kovalev to say that he was hit by shots that were below the belt, that’s just more excuse-making by him to try escape criticism directed at him by the boxing public for his loss.

It’s been exactly 1 year since Kovalev suffered his first loss last year to Andre Ward on November 19. It’s been 5 months since Kovalev lost his second fight against Ward last June. That wasn’t very long ago. 5 months is likely not nearly enough time for Kovalev to mentally recover and come back from that devastating second loss to Ward. Kovalev wants to rebuild his career, and re-position himself at the top of the light heavyweight division as the best fighter. I don’t know if that’s possible. Kovalev is older, mentally and physically not looking like the same fighter, and the division is now being taken over by younger lions like Dmitry Bivol, Oleksander Gvozdyk and Artur Beterbiev. Adonis Stevenson is still a champion, but he’s not fighting good opposition anymore. Stevenson is technically a champion in name only, but he’s walled himself off from the quality fighters in the light heavyweight division, and he’s mainly defending his title against weak opposition. It’s hard to see Stevenson as being among the best based on his decision to milk his WBC title against poor opposition for the last 4 years. The players that are looking to bring new life into the light heavyweight division are Bivol, Gvozdyk and Beterbiev. Kovalev needs to show that he belongs with this bunch of fighters by beating Shabranskyy and then facing and defeating them.

“I respect this guy because he’s a real fighter,” said Kovalev about Shabranskyy. ”His nickname proves he’s a lion, a lion heart, and we will show you on Saturday a great fight. Because on top of this will be the WBO title. From the WBO title, I began my first successful boxing career. I will repeat it and after this we can speak of my future boxing career,” said Kovalev.

Kovalev has changed his stripes, it seems. He’s gone from being a trash talker about his opponents to giving them respect. It’ll be interesting to see how long Kovalev sticks with this humbler look. If Kovalev starts winning again, it’s predictable to imagine him reverting to his former self by coming across as cocky, and overconfident.

Tonight’s Kovalev vs. Shabranskyy fight comes to these areas:

Speed – Even. Both guys are about the same in terms of hand speed

Power – Kovalev has a slight edge here. Shabranskyy can punch well with both hands. The shot that he knocked Sullivan Barrera down in their fight last year would have had Kovalev on the deck as well

Size – The 6’3” Shabranskyy is bigger than the 6’0” Kovalev

Experience – Kovalev has the advantage here. He’s been in with a lot of good fighters. Unfortunately, Kovalev lost twice to the best fighter he’s faced in Ward

Ring generalship – Kovalev has the better boxing skills of the two. Kovalev can’t fight on the inside, however, and that is something that could hurt him in this fight if Shabranskyy can take the fight to the inside and keeping it there. You can bet that Shabranskyy has been training hard to fight on the inside as much as possible during training camp. Shabranskyy has to realize that his chances of winning the fight aren’t great if he stays on the outside for the entire fight and tries to box Kovalev

Endurance – Shabranskyy has the superior stamina of the two. At this point in Kovalev’s career, he’s now a 5-round fighter. He’s not able to fight hard beyond the 5th round for some reason. We saw that in Kovalev’s 2 losses to Andre Ward, as well as in his win over Isaac Chilemba. In all 3 of those fights, Kovalev was exhausted once he hit the 5th round. Ward likely studied Kovalev’s fight with Chilemba, and noticed that he was badly fatigued after the 5th. Shabranskyy knows what he must do tonight for him to beat Kovalev, and that’s to drag him into the deeper end of the fight and drown him the way Ward did

Punch resistance – Shabranskyy takes a far better shot than Kovalev. Shabranskyy was stopped last year by Sullivan Barrera, but Kovalev wouldn’t have lasted half as long as Shabranskyy if he’d been the one that took the same shots

Prediction

Kovalev probably has enough left of his youth for him to beat Shabranskyy tonight. If Shabranskyy fails to come into tonight’s fight with a great game plan, Kovalev will knock him out by the 5th round. However, if Shabranskyy uses the same blueprint that Ward created in his first fight by looking to smother Kovalev on the inside, then he has a very good chance of wearing him down and getting a stoppage. It’s not going to be easy for Shabranskyy to maul Kovalev for 5 continuous rounds from rounds 1 to 5 without tiring himself out in the process, but it’s doable. Most trainers would have Shabranskyy wrestling Kovalev for the first 6 rounds of the fight, hoping that he can tire him out. It’ll look ugly, of course, for Shabranskyy to maul Kovalev for the first half of the fight, but the results could be favorable for him if he can tire him out for the second half of the contest. Shabranskyy is in an advantageous position to win this fight tonight. With the knowledge that Shabranskyy has after seeing Kovalev crumble mentally and physically in his last 2 fights with Ward, he can beat him too. All it’ll take is discipline for Shabranskyy to make Kovalev fall apart again. Nothing has changed with Kovalev. He’s still the same fighter that lost to Ward. Kovalev says he’s been rejuvenated, but the last time I checked, he’s still 34. The only way Kovalev can rejuvenate himself if he finds the fountain of youth and drinks from it.