By Sean Jones: Trainer Abel Sanchez isn’t pleased that former 2-division world champion Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (49-1-2, 34 KOs) could wind up facing David Lemieux (38-3, 35 KOs) if he gets past WBO middleweight champion Billy Joe Saunders (25-0, 12 KOs) in their fight on December 16 at the Place Bell, in Laval, Quebec, Canada.
Sanchez thinks it’s a waste of time for Canelo to fight Lemieux, as he was stopped in the 8th round in his fight with IBF/IBO/WBA/WBC middleweight champion Gennady “GGG” Golovkin in 2015. The fight was a mismatch. Sanchez feels that the fight that the boxing public wants to see is a rematch between Canelo and Golovkin. The only thing Canelo would prove in fighting Lemieux is he can beat him as well. Golovkin was already there first, and it’s going to be difficult for Canelo to do a better job than Golovkin did. Canelo might lose, and that would wreck the rematch against Golovkin.
The problem is that Canelo’s promoters at Golden Boy Promotions are interested in making the fight with Canelo and Lemieiux, because there’s good money in that fight right now while Canelo is still looking good. The money in a Canelo-Lemieux fight will be good if that fight can take place in May of next year.
If Canelo faces Golovkin in a rematch next May, he might lose the fight by a knockout. The interest in a Canelo vs. Lemieux fight won’t be nearly as high if the red-headed Mexican star is coming off of a knockout defeat to Golovkin. The reason why I mention the possibility of Canelo being knocked out by Golovkin in the rematch is because the Kazakhstan fighter now realizes what’s in store for him if the match goes the full 12 round distance again. Golovkin isn’t going to want to chance it that he’ll get robbed a second time, so he’s going to be attacking Canelo all out in the rematch to make sure the judges can’t take away another win from him.
“There is talk that he (Canelo) wants the fight and if he wants to, it’s all up to Canelo,” said Sanchez to ESPN Deportes. “It’s said that he’ll face the one who wins (David) Lemieux vs. (Billy Joe) Saunders. If he wins, Lemieux, it’s a fighter Golovkin already destroyed. I do not know why they give importance to that fight. Boxing needs the fight of Canelo and GGG to define who is who,” said Sanchez.
Lemieux, 28, has a very good chance of beating Saunders on December 16. Lemieux is the bigger puncher, and he’s fighting at a higher level right now than Saunders is. On top of that, the fight will be taking place in Lemieux’s home country of Canada. Saunders isn’t going to have a lot of his British boxing fans in attendance to cheer him on when things start going against him. Saunders will need to be mentally strong, and he’s going to need to stay o hi bike to try and avoid getting hit too often.
With the exception of Golovkin, the fighters that beat Lemieux in the past were ones that took punishment for 5 to 6 rounds, and then took over the fight when he gassed out. Lemieux has improve his stamina, and he paces himself a lot better than he did 6 years ago when he was beaten in back to back fights by Marco Antonio Rubio and Joachim Alcine. Saunders isn’t likely going to be able to wait Lemieux out by soaking up punishment in a similar manner. If Saunders is just going to take Lemieux’s power shots for 5 or 6 rounds, he may not be around for the second half of the contest.
Golden Boy CEO Oscar De La Hoya has already mentioned that Lemieux could be an option for Canelo to fight if he beats Saunders on December 16. De La Hoya obviously is seeing Lemieux as a good Plan-B for Canelo if he can’t make a deal with Team Golovkin for the rematch. Just the fact that Lemieux is there as a possible opponent for Canelo to fight suggests that Golden Boy might choose to negotiate in a tough manner with Golovkin’s promoter Tom Loeffler. When a fighter has options for other good-paying fights the way that Canelo does, I believe it makes it a lot tougher to negotiate with them.
“Canelo is talking like he wants to knock him out (to GGG), who wants to brawl more, so maybe if there is a knockout on one side or the other, that’s the type of fight that the people are going to like,” said Sanchez. “When they’re in close together, we’ll see who holds more,” said Sanchez.
I think Canelo will try to be more aggressive in the rematch with Golovkin, but I don’t see him being able to score a knockout. Canelo’s poor stamina will prevent him from being able to cause Golovkin any problems in the rematch. Canelo needs to be able to fight hard for a full 3 minutes of each round for him to have a chance of knocking out GGG, and he’s incapable of doing that.
In the Canelo-GGG fight last September, Canelo gassed out at the 45 second mark of each round. He would fight hard in the first 45 seconds, and then gas out and spend the remainder of the round with his back against the ropes. The other issue the 5’8” Canelo had was his lack of height and reach. When Canelo would come forward to try and land, Golovkin would back up and hit him with a jab. Canelo would then give up on going after Golovkin. It was like that every time. Canelo didn’t have the reach or the height to attack Golovkin, because he couldn’t get past his power jab.
Canelo didn’t want to get hit too frequently by Golovkin’s jabs because they were so powerful. If there’s going to be a KO in the rematch, it’s going to be Golovkin that gets it. He’s the one with the size, power, chin and the stamina. Golovkin is also the far better knockout puncher of the two. What makes Golovkin so much better at knocking guys out is the combination of his power and chin.
Golovkin can take hard shots for him to deliver his big power sots. Canelo isn’t willing to let himself get clipped by Golovkin, so he won’t come forward too often in the rematch. Instead, Canelo will fight Golovkin just like he did last time. The only variation from the first fight is Canelo will be trying to land a few more shot in each round so that he can possibly win a decision.