Ricky Burns vs. Anthony Crolla analysis & prediction

By Boxing News - 10/03/2017 - Comments

Image: Ricky Burns vs. Anthony Crolla analysis & prediction

By Scott Gilfoid: Two down in their luck former world champion Anthony Crolla (31-6-3, 13 KOs) and Ricky Burns (41-6-1, 14 KOs) will be squaring off this Saturday night on October 7 in a lightweight battle at the Manchester, Arena in Manchester, UK. Both fighters are coming off of defeats, and neither of them can afford a loss right now at this point in their careers.

The 34-year-old Burns will be dropping down to lightweight to face Crolla, who was beaten by Jorge Linares in his last fight by a one-sided 12 round on March 25 in Manchester. Unlike Luke Campbell, Crolla didn’t make a spectacle of himself, blabbering repeatedly how he should have won and how he was making Linares miss all night.

Crolla took the high road and showed class by admitting that he was beaten and giving credit to Linares. That’s what you got to like about Crolla. He’s not a sore loser. He accepts defeat when it comes his way rather than complaining and having a fit immediately after the fight while being interviewed. Crolla had Manchester boxing fans eating out of his hand with the class he showed in accepting his defeat.

“I believe definitely I’m a better fighter through them fights and on Saturday night I know I’ve got to be at my very best,” Crolla said to Sky Sports News. “I’m fighting a three-weight world champion, Ricky Burns, a fantastic fighter and I think our styles cannot help but gel to be a fantastic fight. I’m really excited for it. I think the fans will be the winner.”

Burns has a better chance of winning a lightweight title than Crolla. Burns hasn’t fought WBA champion Jorge Linares yet. He might have the goods to beat him. I doubt that Linares will stay champion long enough for Burns to fight him though. Linares has plans of taking on one of the dangerous lightweight champions like Mikey Garcia. Burns vs. Garcia would be an obvious mismatch. Garcia hits too hard for Burns.

I disagree that Crolla is better than Burns. I see it the other way around. Burns is A LOT better than Crolla, and we’ll see that on Saturday. There’s a difference in pedigree between them. Crolla is just some guy that was basically little more than a good fringe level world class fighter. Crolla won the WBA title in 2015 in beating a very flawed fighter in Darleys Perez by a 5th round knockout in a rematch. I never thought Perez deserved to be a champion though, as there were tons of better fighters in the division that were in the contender ranks at the time. So, for Crolla to beat Perez, I wasn’t impressed because I felt that Perez never deserved to be a true champion in the first place.

In Crolla’s first fight with Perez on July 18, 2015, he was set to lose the fight to him when the referee Howard John Foster took points away from Perez in the 11th and 12th rounds. It was very controversial, as the point deductions saved Crolla from a loss. How often do you see a visiting fighter lose points for low blows in consecutive rounds in round 11 and 12? Crolla was fighting at home in Manchester. Some boxing fans saw it as home odd that the referee would take points away from a visiting fighter TWICE in the last 2 rounds of the fight. Even the point deductions were controversial. Crolla pulled down on Perez’s head in the 12th at the same time he was throwing a punch. Instead of the referee warning Crolla for pulling down on Perez’s head, he took a point away from Perez. The point deduction in the 11th came from a belt-line shot from Perez. As such, Crolla didn’t deserve the draw that he got in that fight. If the referee hadn’t taken those points off from Perez, Crolla would have never gotten a chance for a rematch with Perez, and there wouldn’t have been a rematch.

Anyway, there’s no one named Darleys Perez holding a world title at lightweight right now, so Crolla’s chances of winning another world title are thin. Even if Crolla beats Burns, he doesn’t match up with WBA champion Jorge Linares. It’s doubtful that Linares will keep his WBA title for too much longer anyway. He’s interested in facing WBC champion Mikey Garcia in a unification or possibly one of the other champions. Crolla would have a tough time trying to beat Robert Easter Jr., the IBF belt holder, and WBO champion Terry Flanagan. Those are good fighters, and probably even tougher than Linares for Crolla to try and beat.

Burns is fighting at lightweight for the first time since his mismatch against Josh King on November 7, 2015. Back then, Burns said he’d been having a hard time making the 135 lb. weight limit, which is why he opted to move up to 140. However, it was very easy for Burns in moving up to light welterweight because he was matched by Hearn against Michelle Di Rocco, a fighter that was surprisingly rated No.1 by the world Boxing Association at the time. Burns destroyed Di Rocco o win the vacant WBA 140 lb. title. It was the perfect situation for Burns to win a paper title. He faced a guy that arguably shouldn’t have been ranked in the top 50 in Di Rocco for the vacant WBA light welterweight title, and he did what anyone would do in a similar situation in destroying Di Rocco. Unfortunately for Burns, he didn’t hold onto his title for very long. After one successful title defense against Kiryl Relikh, Burns lost his belt to Julius Indongo in losing a one-sided 12 round unanimous decision on April 15. Surprisingly, Burns hasn’t fought since.

Crolla and Burns are both with Eddie Hearn’s Manchester Sport stable, which means it won’t be the end of the world for the loser. Look Martin Murray. He’s been given 4 world title shots, and he’s lost every time.

“Neither one of us want to be dropping down a level, working our way back up, but that’s probably what the loser will have to do,” said Crolla. “There’s an awful lot at stake. The winner almost guaranteed another world title shot.”

A loss wouldn’t necessarily be the end for Crolla or Burns. With Mikey Garcia expected to move up to 140 soon, it opens up his WBC title to be fought for. There are a lot of good fighters that the Crolla-Burns winner would have to slog through for them to win the WBC belt. Here are the top 6 contenders in the World Boxing Council’s rankings at 135:

1. Ray Beltran

2. Javier Fortuna

3. Gervonta Davis

4. Richard Commey

5. Yvan Mendy

6. Dejan Zlaticanin

I can’t see Crolla or Burns beating any of those guys, especially Davis. Burns was already beaten by Zlaticanin 3 years ago by a 12 round split decision on June 27, 2014. I saw that fight and it was a clear win for Zlaticanin. The judge that scored it for Burns, John Keane, gave him a lot of rounds in which he got the worst of it.

Prediction

I see Burns giving Crolla a royal thrashing on Saturday night in a one-sided 12 round unanimous decision win. Burns is so much better than Crolla that it’s not even funny. Burns may have lost a tiny bit from his game, but he’s still pretty much the same fighter he’s always been. Even Burns at 50 percent would be too good for Crolla. Burns is too tall, too rangy and too quick for Crolla. I can see this fight getting out of hand almost immediately on Saturday. Unless we see some weird point deductions taking place repeatedly in the last couple of rounds like we did in the first Crolla-Perez fight, Burns will win a one-sided 12 round decision. Hopefully there’s no controversy like we’ve seen in the past. That would be a pity for Crolla to win a controversial decision in Manchester. The best man should win this fight. We don’t need the outcome to be tainted by bad judging or an over involved referee taking points off left and right in the championship rounds.