Lomachenko vs. Rigondeaux: The Critical Questions Surrounding 2017’s Last Superfight

By Boxing News - 10/04/2017 - Comments

Image: Lomachenko vs. Rigondeaux: The Critical Questions Surrounding 2017’s Last Superfight

By Alden Chodash: 2017 has been a terrific year for boxing fans that have watched several of their long-awaited dream fights arrive under their proverbial Christmas trees. On December 9th, Vasyl “Hi-Tech” Lomachenko and Guillermo “El Chacal” Rigondeaux will close out the year with a fight that many boxing purists have craved for years.

It was a fight that began to seem increasingly unlikely with Lomachenko’s quick ascent from featherweight to super-featherweight champion, not to mention the rumors that he’d step up to lightweight to try to become boxing’s most “inexperienced” 3-division world champion. But in true form, Lomachenko, who has eagerly sought out challenges from the likes of Orlando Salido, Gary Russell Jr., Rocky Martinez, and Nicholas Walters, might have finally found his most potent threat in his 10 fight career: 2-time Olympic gold medalist Guillermo Rigondeaux.

It is very rare to see two Olympic gold medalists face off against each other. Fights that come to mind include Meldrick Taylor vs. Howard Davis, Lennox Lewis vs. Ray Mercer, and Oscar De La Hoya vs. Pernell Whitaker. However, fights between two 2-time Olympic gold medalists are almost unprecedented. The combined amateur and professional records of Lomachenko and Rigondeaux is an astounding 885-14, the kind of numbers that might even be unsettling to the great Willie Pep. Numbers aside, Lomachenko and Rigondeaux present a form of boxing purity that is seldom seen even at the highest levels today. The type of refined skill and form that modern day greats and past legends revere. With that being said, we once again have the type of match-up that is more appropriately analyzed by open-ended questions rather than resolute judgements. Let’s take a look at some of the more pressing questions going into this December 9 showdown.

Question 1: How will the weight affect Rigondeaux?

The most clear-cut advantage either man brings in is the fact that Lomachenko has been campaigning two weight classes north of Rigondeaux. Further, Lomachenko has shown significant power and comfort at 130, knocking out Rocky Martinez with one punch and battering the feared Nicholas Walters into submission. Rigondeaux, on the other hand, has campaigned exclusively at 122 throughout his 17 fight career. While Rigondeaux has mostly stood his ground in the ring at 122, he has hit the canvas several times in his career; perhaps most troubling was when he had to twice pick himself off the deck against little known Hisashi Amagasa in 2014 to pull out a late stoppage. Although Rigondeaux was also floored by a prime Nonito Donaire in 2013, his ability to jump immediately back into the action alleviates most doubt people may have about his chin. However, this doesn’t change the fact that the 5’4’’ Cuban is giving up a significant amount of stature as he jumps up two weight divisions. While Rigondeaux is no stranger to giving up size, doing so against Lomachenko, who aims to overwhelm his opponents with activity and odd angles, may serve as an especially telling disadvantage.

Question 2: Is Rigondeaux still in his prime?

Guillermo Rigondeaux earned his spot in the pound-for-pound rankings with dominant victories over Nonito Donaire and Joseph Agbeko in 2013. Since then, however, you can argue that the most accomplished fighter Rigondeaux faced was Sod Looknongyangtoy, who Rigondeaux controversially knocked out in the first round. Further, Rigondeaux has been sparingly active in recent years, fighting a total of only 26 rounds (4 fights, 1 no-contest) since his breakout year in 2013. And when he has been active, Rigondeaux has shown flashes of weakness. As mentioned previously, Rigondeaux suffered two hard knockdowns against little known Hisashi Amagasa in 2014 and failed to deliver in his underwhelming performance against Drian Francisco the following year. Whether or not the 37 year old Rigondeaux’s disappointing last few years has been a result of age remains to be seen, especially as he faces his biggest test to date against Lomachenko. Many great fighters such as Pernell Whitaker and Roberto Duran were known to fight to the level of their opposition, as lesser fighters such as Wilfredo Rivera and Kirkland Laing presented more of a challenge than they perhaps should have on a good night. Quite simply, Rigondeaux may be waiting for the right opportunity to remind us of why he’s still considered one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world, despite recent years worth of inactivity and questionable performances. If ever he needed to present the best version of himself, it’s December 9th against Lomachenko.

Question 3: How does Lomachenko adjust to an elusive target?

If Rigondeaux has been steady in any category over the years, it’s in his elusive southpaw style. Compubox statistics show that Rigondeaux leads the game in avoiding power punches, limiting his opponents’ power punch connect percentage to just 19.9%. Rigondeaux is also near the top of the game in terms of evading opponents’ total punch count, ranking 2nd for holding his opponents at a 16.8% total connect percentage. Unfortunately, Rigondeaux trails Lomachenko in this category, as the Ukrainian champion keeps his opponents honest at a 16.1% rate. However, Lomachenko is at his best when he’s able to control his opponents, dominating them with footspeed, angles and punches in bunches. Although Lomachenko is vastly improved since the days of his controversial loss to Orlando Salido, “Hi-Tech” was still largely jeopardized by Salido who consistently got off first and kept him from fighting his fight (whether legally or otherwise) for most of the contest. The most representative comparison of Rigondeaux that Lomachenko has faced going into the fight is Gary Russell Jr., whose flashy southpaw style may have presented some indicators as to what’s ahead. However, Russell does not rely on nor has he mastered the art of defense as Rigondeaux has, and Russell was arguably still developing when Lomachenko dismantled him in 2014. Since he had to dig deep in the later rounds against Salido, we haven’t seen Lomachenko have to significantly adjust his style in fights to pull out dominant victories, which is saying plenty when you consider the resume of opposition he’s faced. It is very likely that “Hi-Tech” will be forced to fight a far more cerebral, resourceful fight against Rigondeaux than he was forced to in beating overmatched opposition such as Jason Sosa and Miguel Marriaga. As history has shown, often the best way to counter a quick, shifty volume fighter like Lomachenko is to present an elusive target, coupled with good timing. Rigondeaux has built his reputation on both of these skills, all of which may force Lomachenko to make adjustments throughout the fight to compensate.

Question 4: Who will be the ring general in this battle of ring wizards?

Ring generalship is one of the four major scoring criteria that professional boxing judges score to under the unified rules of the association of boxing commissions (thank you Harold Lederman). While Rigondeaux throws far fewer punches than Lomachenko, the measured Cuban champion has still managed to take the role of the ring general in every one of his fights thus far. Rigondeaux stands in a very wide stance, almost goading his opponents to lead while he sits in the pocket like a cobra, awaiting counter punching opportunities. Despite his limited 5’4’’ stature, Rigondeaux doesn’t typically give up much ground to his opponents, and it’s almost always clear that his opposition respects his power enough to not lead recklessly. Even against Donaire, who was known to steamroll opposition at the time, Rigondeaux maintained his position as the leader by reducing the “Filipino Flash” to what can best be described as tentative aggression, stalking a moving target without engaging too eagerly.

Whereas Rigondeaux seems to assume his position as the ring general, Lomachenko tends to just go out there and take it. Using his footwork as an offensive tool to cut the distance (which many fighters don’t do these days), Lomachenko is at his best while pushing the fight and simultaneously making his opponents miss. He benefits from fast paced fights where his superior conditioning often shows in the middle to later rounds. Also, fighting at a fast pace allows Lomachenko to strike in combinations while he’s turning his opponents, making use of brilliant angles that create more and more openings for his punches to land. How long it will take Lomachenko to get into his rhythm against Rigondeaux is hard to predict, and whether or not he can get there at all is another matter for debate. It seems safe to predict that Lomachenko will likely be getting off first against Rigondeaux, but whether he can sustain an effective offensive front in the face of Rigondeaux’s defensive counter-punching style remains to be seen.

Question 5: Who wins and how?

For fights of this caliber, this is often the question boxing fans and experts dread most to answer. I think it’s safe to say that on paper, Lomachenko brings more advantages. He’s younger, more active, much bigger, and clearly on the rise. More so, stylistically, Lomachenko presents many problems for the defensive minded Rigondeaux. As stated above, Lomachenko really forces the fight out of you, and Rigondeaux has never been forced to fight at the pace Lomachenko tries to set and sustain. As seen in Oscar De La Hoya’s title winning effort against Pernell Whitaker and Jermain Taylor’s victories over Bernard Hopkins, even a swarm of (partially) ineffective aggression can really make old defensive wizards uncomfortable, and can even cost them close fights. If Lomachenko is able to cut the distance against Rigondeaux and establish a similar tempo to what he was able to pull off in victories over Nicholas Walters and Gary Russell Jr., this could be a very long night for the Cuban defector. On the other hand, if Rigondeaux is able to keep Lomachenko honest with his elusive counter-punching, we might see Lomachenko have to dig deep and adjust in ways he has never been able to pull off (successfully) before.

With all the options on the table, I believe the safer outcome to lean on is a close but unanimous decision for Lomachenko in something of a technical war. Look for the first few rounds to be fought very tactically with both men looking for openings against their elusive opposition. Lomachenko will likely use his activity to edge rounds where neither man can find clear openings, whereas Rigondeaux will win rounds with his sharp counter-punching ability. The fight will heat up down the stretch as Lomachenko will take more chances to bring the fight out of Rigondeaux, who will be reluctant at first but will eventually be forced to hold his ground. Lomachenko should be able to pull out a close decision largely on activity alone, as it may be very difficult for judges to determine who is landing the cleaner, more effective punches given both fighters degree of offensive and defensive wizardry in the ring. If Lomachenko is able to hurt Rigondeaux, I would suspect a Lomachenko victory might even be devoid of any controversy, though I believe Rigondeaux is too crafty and prideful to get stopped by the Ukrainian. It will be a fight boxing purists will love and appreciate, and hopefully it raises the status of both men who have been largely avoided by their peers in their respective weight classes.