Hot Takes, Pro/Con ● PRO/CON: Canelo vs Golovkin, Jones Bros. react

By Boxing News - 09/14/2017 - Comments

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Middleweight Supremacy: Canelo vs Golovkin – Who Will Be Crowned King of 160?

By Justin Jones – In my humble opinion, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (49-1-1, 34 KOs) vs. Gennady “GGG” Golovkin (37-0, 33 KOs) is the best and most competitive match that boxing has to offer in an already action-packed 2017. 

This mega-bout pits two of the top five pound-for-pound fighters in the sport and the two best Middleweights on the planet against one another, exemplifying an increasing trend lately of the best fighters demonstrating the desire to fight each other – such a beautiful thing to witness.

It’s a shame that we can’t deem it the biggest fight of the year due to Floyd “Money” Mayweather. Jr. and Connor McGregor’s video game-like fantasy fight last month, but hey – it is what it is.

With that said, here’s why I believe Canelo will be victorious and crowned king of the 160 lbs. division come Saturday, September 16th.

Canelo is Battle-Tested, Certified

Not many current fighters can boast the type of resume that Canelo has amassed thus far.  His strength of schedule includes three future hall of famers (Floyd Mayweather, Jr., Miguel Cotto [WBO Junior Middleweight Champ], and Shane Mosley – 2-1 in those bouts), victories over many current & former titlist and highly regarded competitors such as Erislandy Lara (WBO Junior Middleweight Champ), Amir Khan, James Kirkland, Alfredo Angulo, Austin Trout, and others.  He’s seen and thrived against a multitude of styles and has come out on the better side of all with the exception of Mayweather (and an early career draw versus Jorge Juarez).  So yes, his record rings bells.

In addition, he’s accustomed to being involved in these massive promotions and even carrying them as the “A” side at times.  He’s used to the hype and all the non-boxing obligations that come along with a fight of this importance.  The lights won’t be too bright for him, what about GGG?

Canelo Is Not Afraid

Some will stereotypically say that Canelo has that proverbial “Mexican Pride” and/or “warrior spirit”, but there’s more to it.  I really think Canelo fears no fighter and it has more to do with his upbringing and the inner dog – fight, heart, drive, etc. – in him.  You have to be wired a certain way to step inside a boxing ring to begin with, but it’s a whole other thing to be obsessed with being the best and challenging any and every one in order to reach the point where everyone recognizes you as such.

When Canelo says he’ll fight anyone, I take his word for it.  You won’t have to worry about Canelo being psyched out before the fight vs. GGG like many of his previous opponents and that’s half the battle – i.e., Daniel Jacobs.  Some will question why Canelo didn’t take the fight sooner, but that has more to do with his boss, Oscar De La Hoya, than Canelo.  De La Hoya made a wise business decision to not put his top fighter in harm’s way prematurely.  We’ve seen rising prospects and potential stars get rushed into elite competition and get thrashed – e.g., Fernando Vargas vs Felix Trinidad – and sometimes there’s no coming back.  But the time has come and it’s the right time for this fight.  Not too soon or too late, but right on time.

Canelo Has the Skills to Pay the Bills

For certain GGG is a great fighter in his own right and possesses many tools – power, ring IQ, chin, effective aggression, ability to cut off the ring, accuracy, etc.  On the flip side, Alvarez can beat you in a number of ways and has an array of skills himself such as his hand speed, accuracy, powerful combinations, chin, ring generalship, and grossly underrated defensive abilities.

One area of note that no one is mentioning is his elite body work.  His attention to detail when it comes to the body is “big time” as Golovkin would say.  Canelo’s commitment to GGG’s body will mitigate any power differential Golovkin holds as the fight progresses and will slow the champ down enough where Canelo can unleash the entire game plan and really test GGG’s skills and will.  To me it’s the deciding factor and the key reason why he’ll be victorious come this Saturday.

At the End of the Day

We’ve seen upsets of all proportions this year in boxing and across sports – Anthony Joshua stopping Wladimir Klitschko, Clemson over Alabama (College Football), Mississippi State beating UConn (Women’s Basketball), Howard stunning UNLV (College Football) – so why not Canelo (+130 underdog via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of September 12th?

As #1 pound-for-pound king Andre Ward likes to say, “there are no boogeymen” in boxing and in the words of Adrien Broner, “anyone can get it”.

Canelo will show the world just how true those clever sayings are come fight night.  Watch and see!

Fight PredictionCanelo Alvarez late TKO (11th round). — Jones Jones (justinjones@2112@gmail.com | Twitter @jusjones29)

More from Justin Jones:

Adrien Broner 140.4 vs. Ashley Theophane 140 – Official Weigh-in Results

Lamont Peterson “Anxious for April 11” — Open Media Workout Photos, More!

Boxer Briefs:  Catching Up with Boxing’s Heavy Hitters & Rising Stars – Bryant “By-By” Jennings

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Re: “Middleweight Supremacy: Canelo vs Golovkin – Who Will Be Crowned King of 160?,” Sept. 14 editorial

The Blueprint 2: Golovkin Will Drown Alvarez in the Deep Water on September 16

By Paul “Paparazzi” Jones – Pardon the metaphor in the title of this rebuttal, but I disagree with my colleague, Justin Jones, that Canelo Álvarez (49-1-1, 34 KOs) will TKO Gennady “GGG” Golovkin (37-0, 33 KOs) on Saturday night in an obvious Upset of the Year candidate.

That dog won’t hunt. And here’s why:

There’s a Blueprint for Beating Canelo

Unfortunately, a blueprint already exists for beating Canelo courtesy of Floyd Mayweather Jr. Put differently, Canelo already knows how to lose; but, it will be up to Golovkin to refresh Canelo’s memory.

Granted, GGG and Mayweather are light years apart in terms of boxing ability. However, they’re equally disparate in strength and power, which doesn’t bode well for Canelo against a heat-seeking puncher like Golovkin who connects with nearly half of his power shots each round (Table 1).

 

Alvarez and Golovkin Have History

According to the “Gym Notes” supplied by The Ring’s Dougie Fischer back in 2011, it’s clear that GGG held his own against Canelo during their 24-minute sparring session.

Of course, sparring isn’t tantamount to an actual boxing match, nor is it perfectly correlated with a victory. But the point is that there is familiarity and mutual respect between Golovkin and Canelo, even if they don’t admit on camera.

Consequently, Canelo is unlikely to surprise Golovkin with his boxing ability because GGG already knows what to expect.

Canelo vs. GolovkinGolovkin vs. Jacobs

For those armchair Eddie Futches out there who are subscribing to the “everything is awesome” narrative by making inferences about how well (or poorly) Canelo will do against GGG based on what they saw in the Golovkin vs. Jacobs fight: Not so fast my friend.

Daniel Jacobs and Canelo are different fighters: physically, mentally, and stylistically.  And don’t forget that some of the tactics used by Jacobs and his team leading up to the GGG fight (e.g., ditching the mandatory prefight weight check) didn’t hurt his chances of making his fight vs. Golovkin a close one.

Therefore, extrapolating Canelo’s performance vs. GGG based on the successes of Jacobs is hollow hyperbole.

Numbers Never Lie

As JAY-Z proclaimed in the Brooklyn High dis track: Men lie, women lie…numbers don’t.

In the case of GGG, his stat line over his last 5 fights is staggering.

Consider these tidbits:

▪ On average, GGG connected on over two-fifths of his punches per round, while his opponents connected on less than one-third of their punches per round (Table 1).

▪ More important, according to CompuBox, GGG scores above the mean connection rates of the average middleweight, welterweight, and junior bantamweight, while making his opponents look (and perform) average.

▪ Equally compelling, going into their bouts with Golovkin, Jacobs, Kell Brook, Dominic Wade, David Lemieux, and Willie Monroe Jr. were a combined 139-4 (.972); they’re a combined 6-6 (.500) thereafter.

Golovkin’s Consistency and Underrated Defense

Even at 35-years-old, Golovkin’s ring IQ and reflexes haven’t noticeably declined and he’s been been a model of consistency his entire career. GGG’s defense is also underrated and the Kazakh native still boasts a chin that’s as tough as termite teeth.

The X-Factor

If you re-read Fischer’s Gym Notes from the Canelo vs. Golovkin sparring session, you’ll notice a pearl that’s worth mentioning:

“Alvarez is a versatile boxer who can stick and move or stalk and punch effectively.… but if he’s hurt or feels that he’s being overwhelmed… I have the feeling he might just go for broke instead of trying to survive.”

I suspect that Dougie’s hunch is right; and I believe that Canelo’s inner alpha may lead him to try to fight his way out of danger, which would be his undoing against GGG.

Fight Prediction. I expect the HBO Punch Zone SlamMan for Canelo to be lit up like a Christmas tree by the middle rounds; and it will be GGG’s ability to effectively pressure, cut off the ring, and pepper Canelo’s body that will be the difference in this fight. Bottom Line. The Kazakh badass will be in full beast mode on Saturday night, adjusting to Canelo’s speed early on and methodically breaking down the Mexican standout over 11 rounds before handing Canelo his first TKO loss. — Paul “Paparazzi” Jones (prjones1@hotmail.com | Twitter@boxingepicenter)

More from “Paparazzi” Jones:

Two Things You Should Know Before Buying Mayweather vs. McGregor or Any Other Blockbuster Fight on Pay-Per-View

The Third Time’s The Charm: Russell Jr. Thumps Escandón by TKO, Tacks on 4th Consecutive Win

The People’s Court (of Public Opinion): Mayweather v. Pacquiao

 

Historical Comparison Report

Gennady Golovkin vs. GGG’s Opponents (Last 5 Fights)

 

 

Golovkin   Opponents   AVERAGE
  TOTAL PUNCHES     MIDDLEWEIGHT WELTERWEIGHT JR BANTAMWEIGHT
57.4 Avg. Thrown /Round 46.0   55.8 56.0 59.7
25.2 Avg. Landed /Round 13.9   17.3 17.4 17.7
43.9% Connect Percentage 30.2%   31.0% 31.1% 29.6%
             
  JABS          
28.9 Avg. Thrown /Round 18.8   23.3 23.5 22.6
11.3 Avg. Landed /Round 3.9   5.1 5.2 4.3
39.2% Connect Percentage 20.9%   21.9% 22.1% 19.0%
             
  POWER PUNCHES          
28.5 Avg. Thrown /Round 27.1   32.4 32.4 37.1
13.8 Avg. Landed /Round 9.9   12.2 12.2 13.3
48.6% Connect Percentage 36.6%   37.7% 37.6% 35.8%