By Dan Ambrose: ESPN analyst Teddy Atlas believes that unbeaten Gennady “GGG” Golovkin (37-0, 33 KOs) is a deteriorated fighter and will lose to Saul “Caneo” Alvarez (49-1-1, 34 KOs) tonight in their bout on HBO PPV in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Atlas has spotted decline in the 35-year-old Golovkin that wasn’t there 2 years ago when the Canelo-Golovkin fight was first proposed. Somewhere along the way, Golovkin’s physical skills have deteriorated, says Atlas, and he’s now picking Canelo to take advantage of that by beating the Kazakhstan fighter tonight at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
The deterioration that Atlas believes he sees in Golovkin has occurred in his last 2 fights against Danny Jacobs and Kell Brook. Golovkin stopped Brook in the 5th round. There wasn’t any deterioration that was noticeable in that fight. Golovkin was still punching with incredible power, and broke Brook’s right eye socket.
Golovkin got hit some in that fight, but he always gets hit when he’s trying to score a quick knockout. Golovkin beat Jacobs by a 12 round unanimous decision. He was boxing Jacobs for most of the fight, and he didn’t appear to be trying to KO him like he does with his other opponents.
The only thing that Atlas isn’t sure about is whether Canelo, with his new bulk that he’s added to his frame, will try and slug with Golovkin. Atlas says Canelo looked like the bigger guy at last Friday’s weigh-in, and he’s not sure whether the new muscles will cause Canelo to want to test them out against Golovkin. Canelo could be coming into the ring with a 10 to 15-pound weight advantage over Golovkin tonight.
Golovkin rehydrates to 173-175. At the open workout this month, Canelo looked between 185 and 190. In the past, Canelo has always used his size advantage over his opponents to press forward and look to impose his will on them. Old habits die hard. Canelo may try to do the same thing inside the ring with Golovkin, especially if he’s sporting a 10-15 lb. weight advantage.
“The smaller guy, Canelo, looks like the bigger guy,” said Teddy Atlas to ESPN in talking about the size difference between Alvarez and Golovkin during the weigh-in. “He’s been bulking up. I don’t know if he’s been taking supplements. I’m saying legal supplements that bulk you up a little bit. Maybe by trying to be the bigger guy, which you can’t, that’s up to God and your parents and genetics; Golovkin is born to be the bigger guy. Canelo’s not going to be the bigger guy. He can bulk up in a false way and look like the bigger guy, but what does he lose? Does he lose the things that the smaller guy brings in and needs to use to win against a bigger guy? He’d better start by avoiding Golovkin’s right hand. He’s the bigger guy and that means he’s got more power,” said Atlas.
Canelo is a counter puncher, and not so much a boxer. He likes to slug and catch his opponents with hard power shots. Canelo can get the better of his opponents when they punch with him. We saw that in Canelo’s fights against Miguel Cotto, Austin Trout, Liam Smith and James Kirkland. When each of these guys punched with Canelo, he could take advantage of that by hurting them with counter shots.
Golovkin is the type of fighter who wants to pay his opponents back when they hit him hard. This means that if Canelo starts embarrassing Golovkin by catching him with powerful counter punches, Golovkin may look to take him out immediately.
Golovkin could force a pace that Canelo isn’t capable of sustaining. When fighters add a lot of muscle weight to their bodies in a brief period the way Canelo has, they can wear down quickly and get stopped. Canelo might feel that he’s doing what he always does by looking to throw counter shots, but if he ticks Golovkin off bad enough, he could turn the fight into a war that he’s not physically ready for.
Canelo lacks power at middleweight. We saw that in his last fight against Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. on May 6. But with all the added muscle weight that Canelo has put on overnight, the weight is going to slow him down if he’s forced to fight hard beyond the 3rd round. Canelo has got to hope that the new weight he’s added to his frame will result in more punching power for him. In watching Canelo hit the mitts with his trainer Eddie Reynoso during the open workout this month, he doesn’t look like he’s added any power.
“For Canelo, the danger zone for me is the first 6 rounds,” said Atlas. “He’d better be looking out for a right hand. Make sure it doesn’t land. Don’t get caught with that big shot. Don’t get caught up in the weight, where you look like Arnold Schwarzenegger in there, but you’re not. And now you start acting like the bigger guy and start fighting with the bigger guy, fire with fire,” said Atlas.
Canelo should worry more than just the first 6 rounds against Golovkin. Atlas has Golovkin confused with another fighter. Golovkin doesn’t gas out after 6 rounds. If you look at Golovkin’s fights with David Lemieux and Martin Murray, he didn’t appear tired after the 6th. Golovkin will still be dangerous after the 6th. It would be a mistake on Canelo’s part for him to assume that Golovkin is physically exhausted after round 6.
If anything, Golovkin will be more dangerous in the second half of the fight, because he’ll be pushing an even faster pace, double-stepping to get quickly to Canelo to hit him with body shots to not let him rest. That’s what Golovkin normally does in his fights. In his last bout against Danny Jacobs, Golovkin changed tactics and boxed him instead of looking to slug it out. That was a completely different fighter. Golovkin still beat Jacobs at his own game by beating him by boxing instead of slugging. You’ve got to admire that. I don’t see that as deterioration that Golovkin was using a different fight strategy for that contest against Jacobs.
“I think I’ve seen deterioration with Golovkin, I really do,” said Atlas. “He’s 35-years-old. I think he’s been deteriorating. He’s not the same fighter when the fight was first proposed, when they started talking about it 2 years ago. Over the last 2 years, I’ve seen deterioration. I’ve seen him become less. I don’t know if it’s the age, the fights that’s causing him to deteriorate or maybe he was exposed. Maybe Golovkin, we overhyped him. This was a guy that we made him into an android. We turned him into a terminator,” said Atlas in tearing into Golovkin.
I think Golovkin beats the same guys that he was fighting in 2015 with the same ease right now. Golovkin would beat the likes of David Lemieux, Martin Murray and Willie Monroe Jr. with ease right now just like he did in 2015. I don’t see there being deterioration. Brook landed some good shots in the 2nd round against Golovkin, but the fight was over with after that round. Golovkin worked Brook over in rounds 3, 4 and 5. The fight was stopped in the 5th.
Jacobs was running from Golovkin in the first 6 rounds, and he was having his shots blocked in the second half of the fight. Golovkin fought well against a dangerous guy without getting hit a lot. At the end of the Golovkin-Jacobs fight, Jacobs’ face was badly swollen, whereas Golovkin’s face was unmarked. Jacobs was very tired from the constant pressure that Golovkin was putting on him. Golovkin didn’t fight like he was trying to knockout Jacobs. I think Golovkin is going to fight Canelo in a much different manner tonight. Golovkin knows he needs to knockout Canelo for him to get the win.
”He was beating up on junior middleweights,” said Atlas about Golovkin. ”I’m not saying he’s not going to win this fight, and he’s not the favorite. I’m just saying he’s been beating up on junior middleweights, European middleweights. His resume is filled with guys that have lost at the next level. Now he fought Danny Jacobs in his last fight, a real middleweight, and he struggled with him immensely with him. Was he exposed? Did we finally see he’s not the terminator? This is what he is and what he is not,” said Atlas.
Golovkin has beaten more than just 154 b. fighters. Atlas sounds like he’s not been following his career. Golovkin has been beating middleweights for the most part in David Lemieux, Martin Murray, Dominic Wade, and Danny Jacobs. Canelo is the one that has been fighting guys from the 154-lb. division like James Kirkland, Liam Smith, Alfredo Angulo, Ryan Rhodes and Erislandy Lara.
”I don’t know if the smaller man is going to try and be the bigger man and stand there and try and prove something,” said Atlas about the bulked up Canelo Alvarez. “All I know is there’s going to be fireworks. I was going to pick Golovkin. That’s the easy pick for me by a 9th round stoppage; too big, too strong. But I’m going to go with Canelo. From what I’ve been seeing, the deterioration, all those things, and whether it’s age,” said Atlas.
Atlas has been picking Canelo to beat Golovkin ever since the fight was first signed. This isn’t new from Atlas. I wonder what Atlas is going to say if Golovkin beats Canelo tonight. Will Atlas give Golovkin credit or will he say that Canelo was just a hype job and someone that just fought guys from the junior middleweight division his entire career.
