By Dan Ambrose: Super middleweight contender Arthur Abraham is picking Gennady “GGG” Golovkin (37-0, 33 KOs) to easily beat Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (49-1-1, 34 KOs) in their BIG fight on September 16 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Abraham likes both fighters, but he sees Golovkin as the best middleweight in the division today.
In fact, Abraham goes so far as to say that Canelo has “no chance” against Triple G in their fight on HBO PPV. Abraham has seen enough of Golovkin’s game to knock that Canelo is going to have ton of problems when he gets inside the ring with him in 3 months from now.
Abraham isn’t the only one NOT giving the 26-year-old Canelo any chance in this fight. There are a lot of boxing fans that feel the same way as Abe. Moreover, the odds-makers have installed GGG as the favorite in the fight. Canelo’s lack of size, punching power, stamina and experience against quality opposition are the major reasons why he’s seen as the underdog in the fight. Canelo is listed at 5’9”, but that appears to be a generous measurement for the red-headed Mexican star. Canelo is more like 5’8”. He’s just a little bit taller than the 5’7” Miguel Cotto. When you’re really short like Canelo, it doesn’t how heavy you are. You’re going to have problems against a taller fighter like Golovkin.
“That’s a very, very big fight,” said Abraham to On the Ropes. “Canelo and Golovkin, both are good fighters, but I think Golovkin at this time is the best in the world at middleweight. Nobody can beat him at this time. Golovkin is now the best at middleweight. Canelo has no chance,” said Abraham.
Canelo can earn respect from the boxing world even if he loses to GGG. We just saw with Golovkin’s last two opponents Danny Jacobs and Kell Brook that they came out of their fights with Golovkin with high regard from the boxing public simply because they were able to be competitive at times. Both fighters were hurt in their fights, and both were unable to do much on offense. Jacobs didn’t even try do make a fight of it until the second half of the contest. He seemed more intent on jus surviving the full 12 round fight.
If Canelo can make it competitive at times, his boxing fans won’t hang him out to dry after he loses the fight. They’ll respect him more. Canelo needs to make sure he doesn’t quit on a knee like Kell Brook did in his recent loss to Errol Spence Jr. last month at Bramall Lane in Sheffield, England. The boxing public wants to see Canelo fight hard and go out on his shield if need be.
Canelo has got to make some drastic changes to his game for him to have any chances at all against Golovkin. The boxing fans that rave about Canelo’s hand speed don’t know the major limitation that comes with that speed. I’m talking about Canelo’s lack of stamina. He’s only capable of fighting in brief spurts. If Canelo does throw a small flurry of shots, he needs to take a rest break because he gets exhausted easily. Golovkin’s trainer Abel Sanchez likely is aware of Canelo’s tendency to only fight in spurts. The way for Golovkin to take advantage of Canelo’s poor stamina is for him to jump on him and force him to throw more shots than his body is capable of throwing.
Canelo will need to rest up after he lets his hands go, and that’ll lead to him going back to the ropes for a rest break. Canelo might not take a rest break against the ropes against Golokvin, as it’ll be too risky. What we could see is Canelo try and move around the ring to recover and keep Golovkin from getting his shots off. I don’t think that’s going to work against Golovkin, because he’ll cut off the ring and force Canelo to engage with him. It’ll be bad for Canelo if he gets caught by Golovkin before he’s had a chance o rest up. We could see Canelo get knocked out quickly in this fight. If Canelo gets tired and can’t rest, then Golovkin will have a big chance to take him out with a flurry of shots.
Canelo and his promoter Oscar De La Hoya of Golden Boy Promotions aren’t giving away the game plan for the fight, but it’s likely going to be one in which Canelo tries to take advantage of his hand speed and counter punching ability. Canelo will try and answer back with left hooks each time Golovkin throws one of his big power shots. If Golovkin stays in the pocket with Canelo like his trainer Abel Sanchez is talking about him doing, then Canelo is going to need to be able to take some big shots. I don’t know if Canelo will be able to handle getting hit hard by Golovkin without dropping for the 10 count.
Canelo is no different from anyone that Golovkin has faced in terms of his chin. Canelo has good hand speed and boxing ability, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to be able to take a punishing blows any better than the likes of David Lemieux was able to absorb in his fight against Golovkin in 2015. I wouldn’t be surprised if Canelo isn’t even capable of taking the shots that Lemieux took before folding.
Abraham should have fought Golovkin when the two of them were both fighting at middleweight at the same time. Abraham vs. Golovkin would have been a great fight back when Abraham held the IBF middleweight title from 2005 to 2009. There was no excuse for Abraham not to have fought Golovkin, because it would have been a big fight for Germany. Golovkin was fighting out of Germany for the first 5 years of his pro career from 2006 to 2011. After 2011, Golovkin decided he wanted to make it big in the U.S in fighting the best guys. Golovkin could have stayed in Germany like Abraham and Felix Sturm, and fought mostly guys from Europe the way those guys did. Golovkin would have accomplished a lot less with his boxing career, but it would have an easy life for him.
Abraham (46-5, 30 KOs) has a big fight of his own next month against International Boxing Organization super middleweight champion Chris Eubank Jr. (24-1, 19 KOs) at the Wembley Arena in London, England. If Golovkin moves up in weight to the 168-pound division in the near future, he could potentially fight Abraham. That would be an interesting fight for as long as it lasts. Abraham would have the size advantage over GGG.
