By Harry Rowland: In what looks to be one of the most competitive matchups of the year, Kell Brook 36-1 (25) defends his IBF Welterweight title against rising American star, Errol Spence .Jr 21-0 (18) in the champions home town at Bramall Lane football stadium, Sheffield, this Saturday, May 27th.
Not many fans expected Brook to take on his mandatory challenger, after having moved up to Middleweight in a losing effort for Gennady Golovkin’s various baubles, in September last year, his most recent contest.
With the ease in which he filled out to the 160lb Middleweight limit, most assumed he would likely opt to settle at the 154lb Super Welterweight division. Not to mention the threat of his dangerous challenger; one of he most highly touted prospects at any weight.
But we forget the trials and tribulations Brook had in getting hold of the title. Having to patiently wait on the sidelines as injury delayed two showdowns with then champion Devon Alexander. By the time His shot came around in August 2014, Alexander had been dethroned by unbeaten roughhouse Shawn Porter. An opponent Brook would have to travel to the states to beat in his backyard, putting in a career best performance in the process.
This was followed by a seven and a half month hiatus, recovering from a leg injury after being attacked with a knife while out celebrating in Spain. Then came three uninspiring defenses, against over-matched opponents, which led to the Golovkin challenge. A high risk move as his unbeaten streak was blasted away in five action packed rounds.
It is unclear how the drop down to 147lb will affect the champion, a huge Welterweight to begin with. But When you consider the top operators at Super Welterweight you can understand why Spence is the preferred option, the Charlo brothers, Saul Alvarez (until recently), Demetrius Andrade and Erislandy Lara are probably the stiffest competition the division has seen at any one time.
The Golovkin fight was a business move for Brook, and a financial success, but it came at a price, even if the movement in weight doesn’t affect his performance, his aura of invincibility has been shattered, despite remaining unbeaten at Welterweight. Ironically he has walked into another financially lucrative contract, with a sold out stadium and a pay per view status in the UK.
With a current eight fight knockout streak, ‘The Truth’ Spence is fast becoming the Welterweight version of Golovkin himself. Having stepped up his competition to world class level in his last two outings against Leonard Bundu and Chris Algieri, the knockouts have not subsided.
Texan Spence also has a vast amateur pedigree, having made it to the quarter finals of the London 2012 olympics and compiling a respectable 135-12 record.
Spence has the slight physical advantages when looking at the tale of the tape. At 5’9.5″ he is half an inch taller, at 72″ has a three inch reach advantage, and at 27 a four year age advantage. Both are big at the weight and both can produce a lot of power on their shots.
The challenger will be looking to come forward behind a stiff jab, backing his man up until he can let his power shots go. Spence doesn’t have the fastest movement but he manages to edge forward to a position where he can really plant his feet to generate a lot of power, that has afforded him an 86% knockout ratio. He is able to get right in front of an opponent without panicking, using head movement and a tight defence to avoid what’s coming back at him.
Brook is the slightly more versatile of the two, he has had to fight going backwards at times and he uses a more varied shot selection. He has faced the more stiffer competition in Porter and Golovkin. Due to Spence’s style and slight edge in power, Brook is going to have to use the ring in between attacks to stop the challenger walking right through him.
At 6 to 4 on, Spence is the betting favorite, but realistically this is a fifty fifty fight, which will help to clarify who deserves to reside in the upper echelons of the division. With fellow champions Manny Pacquiao still operating, and Keith Thurman still undefeated, and quality names like Timothy Bradley, Danny Garcia, Shawn Porter, Lamont Peterson and Amir Khan all looking to regain belts, the Welterweight picture is still confusing, but this is one fight in the right direction.
I think Spence will just be a bit too fresh and special, for the special one. I see it going down to the wire, with the difference being the extra pop in Spence’s punches. But a defiant Brook does enough to convince one of the judges score it for him, or at least a draw. Spence wins by majority/split decision, prompting calls for a rematch.
George Groves vs Fedor Chudinov Analysis & Prediction
At 18 to 5 on, the bookies are assuming it’s going to be fourth time lucky for ‘Saint’ George Groves 25-3 (18) to win a world title, when he challenges Fedor Chudinov 14-1 (10) for the vacant WBA Super, Super Middleweight championship, as the chief support to Brook vs Spence.
This is certainly the weakest opposition he will have faced when contesting for world honors, the last two being Carl Froch and Badou Jack, which serve as his only losses, on an otherwise impressive ledger.
Groves has a lot of talent, having beaten quality British rivals James DeGale, Martin Murray and Paul Smith. On reflection the Froch fights came slightly too early, and he didn’t seem fully prepared for Jack, opting for an inexperienced trainer at that level in Paddy Fitzpatrick, despite coming close on the scorecards.
Russian born Chudinov turned in an average performance in his last outing, beaten for the first time, dropping a majority decision to Felix Sturm back in February of last year, who at 38 has seen mixed results over the last few years. The fight went much like their first contest that Chudinov managed to edge by another razor thin split margin.
Chudinov 29 hasn’t been very active, with only 15 fights to his name during an eight year career, and Sturm being the only marque name on his resume. He is a solid fighter that adopts a classic European upright style and does everything well.
It promises to be an entertaining battle as both fighters like to come forward and fight, with a no nonsense approach to their craft. Groves, two inches taller at 5’11.5″ has the harder dig so it is likely he will be the aggressor, looking to stay busy off the jab.
Groves also 29, has the superior hand and foot speed, which will allow him to steal rounds using raiding attacks with in and out footwork. With the benefit of experience he didn’t have in previous title attempts, Groves now chooses his moments more wisely when letting combinations go, as not to tire down the stretch.
I think it is Groves’ time to shine, against a tailor made orthodox opponent, and I expect him to win almost every round to claim a unanimous points win over twelve rounds.
