By Gerardo Granados: Next May 6 at the T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, two of the biggest names from Mexico will fight for what I consider diametric different reasons. I have no doubt that for Canelo Alvarez; this is a big money grab fight, as he and Oscar De la Hoya are so confident to win against a former middleweight titlist who faded fast due to his lack of discipline. For Julio Cesar Chavez Jr this could be a redemption fight or as well be his cash out fight, but by the way he is training, I can see a fighter who just found his lost motivation.
When the fight was first announced a friend of mine asked: “Should I even for 1 second entertain the thought that Nacho Beristain training Chavez Jr means that the Canelo fight may actually be a fight”. I quickly replied to him “Jr lacks footwork speed jab lateral movement to trouble Canelo but it´ll be “entertaining” to watch”. As time passed I have changed my mind on a few things.
Canelo feasts on slow flat footed, straight lines coming forward fighters with weak defense, so if Chavez Jr fights as he has in the past and only relies on his strength and chin to win, then there is a big chance for Canelo to win a wide points decision or even could be able to stop him late if Chavez ends up too weight drained at the 164.5 division limit.
Canelo´s defensive skills have evolved, now he is not that easy to hit but he still struggles against fighters with fast hands. I think that Canelo is the better boxer, with also better defense than Chavez Jr, but I don’t see him as a boxer-puncher like Erik Morales was or as a great counter puncher like Juan Manuel Marquez is.
If Canelo isn’t negatively affected by the added weight, then he should win on points. But if the extra muscle demands much more oxygen than Canelo´s body has handled at 155, then maybe he could have stamina issues as he had in the past, but would it be enough for an upset to occur?
If Canelo is so confident to defeat Chavez Jr, he might as well be making the big mistake of underestimate a determined hungry fighter who has literally nothing to lose and everything to win.
I believe that so far Chavez Jr has trained harder than he ever did in his life. Physical trainer Memo Heredia turned Badou Jack into a good puncher for his last fight and did the same with Juan Manuel Marquez against Manny Pacquiao, so if everything goes right, then there is a good possibility that Chavez Jr ends up strong and powerful.
I have no doubt that even on such short time that Beristain will be able to correct many flaws on Junior´s game and also to come up with a game plan to take advantage of Canelo´s flaws and physical disadvantages or adjust during the fight; but then we should ask if Chavez Jr will be able to execute the game plan or adjust.
If somehow Chavez Jr is able to steal the first rounds, do the readers believe that Canelo´s corner will be able to adjust and outsmart Ignacio Beristain? I sincerely doubt that Chepo Reynoso can outsmart Nacho.
A friend of mine asked me about a Julio Cesar blueprint to defeat Canelo. I replied to him that Chavez Jr often wastes his height and reach. But if he is able to fight tall moving just enough out of Canelo´s reach also avoid becoming predictable and throw 3-4 punch combinations. If he is able to take advantage of his height and reach establishing a fast crisp jab followed by a hard accurate right hand (straight – hook – upper cut) and force Canelo to fight half of the round against the ropes then I would definitively give him a chance to win. But then again that is a big if.
On the other corner, Canelo could fight as he usually does, being patience waiting for openings to counter, using his usual three punch combination and constantly attacking the body. He will use head upper body movement to get in range and walk circles around Julio Cesar. I think Alvarez will carry his speed and punching power up to the 164.5 division but I am not sure if he will have the stamina or if his legs will carry him thru 12 rounds at a high pace.
The problem that I see for Canelo is that he is used to fight against much smaller foes than Chavez Jr. is and no matter how much praise Alvarez receives from bigger sparring partners, at the end of the day the one who pays often hears what he wants to hear. So, he better pace himself and try to steadily wear Julio Cesar down, instead of looking for a one punch knockout against a foe that has a solid chin.
I have no doubt that this fight will be a sold out as the buildup has been solid. Whilst Chavez Jr stays humble and is a likable underdog, Canelo has managed to become the arrogant villain. For sure, at times it is better to just to have fun watching a fight, instead of thinking too damn much about the real magnitude or the transcendence of it. But of course, I don’t plan to pay a dime to watch it.
This is a fight that will be won not only with boxing skills but the heart, hunger, and determination will play a major role. I saw Chavez Jr quitting against Andrzej Fonfara but that is not the same Chavez Jr who has been training in the altitude at the Otomí Mountains for the last two months. The betting odds started 7-1 and now are 4-1 for Canelo and it could get even closer if Julio Cesar looks good at the weight in. But I won’t risk a big amount on Chavez Jr to win and rather just enjoy the upset of the year if it happens.
I am sure that Ignacio Beristain will improve Julio Cesar Chavez Jr overall boxing skills, but will it be enough to upset Canelo Alvarez?