By Dan Ambrose: If Oscar De La Hoya’s prediction comes true, Mexico stars Saul “Canelo” Alvarez and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. will be fighting a “civil war” on May 6 in their fight at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. De La Hoya calls it a civil war due to both fighters being Mexican. It should be interesting to see if the fight does turn out to be a war.
(Photo Credit: Tom Hogan /Golden Boy Promotions)
On Chavez Jr’s part, you can assume that he’ll make it a war, because that’s the way he’s always fought. Chavez Jr. learned from his father, boxing great Julio Cesar Chavez. He taught him how to fight, and Chavez was always going to war with his opposition. In Canelo’s case, he doesn’t always slug it out with his opponents. If you look at Canelo’s fight against Austin Trout in 2013, Canelo went to the ropes in round 7 after getting hurt by a body shot. Canelo then fought with his back against the ropes for the remainder of the 12 round fight. He never ventured away.
“This fight has the ingredients to be a war,” said De La Hoya. “I call it a civil war because both fighters are Mexican.”
It’s in Canelo’s best interest to turn the fight into a war, because that’ll give De La Hoya and his company a reason to put on a second fight between them. I think De La Hoya is been transparent in his desire to put Canelo and Chavez Jr. back inside the ring for a second fight. Without the fight being close and exciting, it removes any chance of their being a second fight. However, that doesn’t mean that Golden Boy CEO De La Hoya won’t still put Canelo and Chavez Jr. back together in a rematch. If the fight brings in a lot of PPV buys on HBO, then we could see Canelo and Chavez Jr. fighting again. Canelo vs. Miguel Cotto was a pretty one-sided fight, and there’s going to be a rematch between them in December.
You can argue the biggest reason why is because their previous fight in November 2015 brought in 900,000 pay-per-view buys on HBO. Outside of Canelo’s fight against Floyd Mayweather Jr. in 2013, Canelo-Cotto is the red-haired star’s second biggest selling fight of his career. Since there’s only a few names that can give Canelo a huge payday, you can argue that he’s going to keep fighting them, especially if they’re fairly safe fights. If this was Golovkin and Canelo was coming off of a brutal knockout to him, I doubt that he would have the slightest interest in facing him again. It would be crazy for Cotto to do so, because another knockout loss would likely hurt his PPV numbers on a permanent basis.
“I think the fans are waiting for a good fight,” said De La Hoya to ES News Reporting. “We haven’t had a great match-up where the fans know it’s going to be guaranteed action in such a long time. The last time I can remember a fight like this with two Mexicans in the ring is [Marco Antonio] Barrera vs. [Erik] Morales, and that was 17-years-ago. This is the type of fight that excites your boxing fans, your normal boxing fans, when you have Chavez-Canelo and you know it’s a great fight. This is what wins the fans over. This is what creates more fans for a sport we dearly love,” said De La Hoya.
I wouldn’t compare Canelo-Chavez Jr. to the Erik Morales vs. Marco Antonio Barrera rivalry. There’s a huge difference between those two fights. Barrera and Morales were two Mexican warriors that were in the prime of their careers and both very successful when they fought each other three times between 2000 and 2004. In the case of the Canelo-Chavez Jr. fight, only Canelo is successful and in his prime. Chavez Jr. is not the same fighter he was during his best years. Chavez Jr. took his foot off the gas pedal in his boxing career following his loss to Sergio Martinez in 2012, and he’s done very little since then. Chavez Jr. hasn’t retired since that loss, but he’s fought irregularly and not always against the best fighters. Chavez Jr. has only fought one good fighter since 2012 and that was against Andrzej Fonfara, who stopped him in nine rounds in 2015. Canelo vs. Chavez Jr. is nothing like Morales vs. Barrera. That’s an insult to those two fighters to compare Canelo-Chavez Jr. to them. There’s a world of difference between those fighters and Canelo vs. Chavez Jr.
”When you have women talking about Canelo, then that’s obviously a great indication that Canelo is a crossover superstar,” said De La Hoya.
De La Hoya says Canelo is a crossover star. That obviously isn’t true as of yet. For Canelo to be a crossover star, he would be getting far more PPV buys in the U.S than he is right now. Canelo’s last fight against Liam Smith brought in 300,000 buys. Canelo vs. Amir Khan brought in 600,000 buys. If Canelo were a true crossover star in the U.S, he would be bringing in over 1 million buys like Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather Jr. enjoyed frequently during their best hears. If Canelo is a crossover star, he’s a weak crossover star and a not a solid one.
Why isn’t Canelo bringing in huge PPV numbers? A big part of the reason is the match-making that’s being done for him by his promoters at Golden Boy. They’re not putting Canelo in with the dangerous opposition like Gennady Golovkin, Daniel Jacobs, Jermall Charlo, Jermell Charlo, Demetrius Andrade, Erislandy Lara, and Jarrett Hurd. Instead, Golden Boy is matching Canelo against Chavez Jr., Liam Smith, James Kirkland, Alfredo Angulo and Miguel Cotto. He’s being matched in what appears to be a safe manner to bring in decent numbers but not great ones. For Canelo to grow as a PPV attraction, De La Hoya and Golden Boy will need to show some confidence in him by matching him against the best fighters. I’m not sure that they have confidence in Canelo that he can win those fights. If they did, they would certainly be putting him in with the Charlo brothers, Julian “J-Rock” Williams, Demetrius Andrade, Hurd, Lara [for rematch], Golovkin and Jacobs. There would be no reason for Golden Boy not to make those fights if they were confident Canelo could win them. Why drag out fighters from the past for Canelo to fight like Kirkland, Cotto, Angulo and Chavez Jr. when you’ve got relevant fighters from this era. Why match Canelo against Khan and Liam Smith when you could be putting him in with quality fighters from the 154 or 160lb divisions.
“I’ve always felt between 160 and 165 is where I feel best,” said Canelo about his weight for the Chavez Jr. fight. “I’m going to have sparring partners just as tall as him; light heavyweights just as big as him,” said Canelo.
What Canelo says about him always feeling comfortable when weighing between 160 and 165 runs counter to what De La Hoya has been saying about him needing to grow into the middleweight division. If Canelo has always felt comfortable between 160 and 165, then why has he been melting down to 155 and 154 to fight at a weight lower than what he’s comfortable? It doesn’t make sense.
Speaking about Gennady “GGG” Golovkin, Canelo said, “This rivalry one year ago since the [Miguel] Cotto fight. I don’t want it to be a long, long negotiation. We’ve already made them a very big offer, a very big offer. It’s on the table. It’s up to them if they accept it or not,” said Canelo about Golovkin and his management.