Kovalev KOs Ward in rematch – Prediction

By Boxing News - 12/04/2016 - Comments

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By Allan Fox: Sergey “Krusher” Kovalev (30-1-1, 26 KOs) won’t be taking any chances with being on the receiving end up another controversial decision when he faces IBF/WBA/WBO light heavyweight champion Andre “SOG” Ward (31-0, 15 KOs) in their rematch in first half of 2017. Kovalev was beaten by the scores of 114-113 x 3 in their fight on November 19.

The rematch will be a different story for the two fighters, because Kovalev is not going to be looking for the perfect shot like he was last time he fought Ward. He’s also not going to let Ward turn the fight into a wrestling match like the last time.

The constant wrestling that Ward was doing from rounds 3 through 12 seemed to tire Kovalev out, because he’s never had to fight anyone like that before. All that could have been avoided if the referee had stepped in and taken points off from Ward for the holding/wrestling.

What seemed obvious to me in watching the Kovalev vs. Ward fight is how both of these guys are no longer the fighters they used to be. Ward looks nowhere near as good as he was in 2011 and before. Ward looked slow, weak and not as fast as he once was. The only area where Ward still looked really good was with his standup wrestling technique he was using. However, Ward wasn’t able to bull Kovalev to the ropes with his mauling like he used to do earlier in his career with his opponents in the Super Six tournament. Kovalev was too strong to be muscled. But all the holding and wrestling did seem to tire Kovalev in the second half.

Kovalev is going to be looking to get Ward out of there early in the rematch by taking the fight to him, and not being as selective as he was in the first fight. Kovalev made the mistake of not pressuring Ward hard after he dropped him in the 2nd. Kovalev fought like he thought he was going to be able to catch Ward again to put him down in the fight. After Ward turned the fight into a grappling affair in the 3rd round, it was too late for Kovalev to try for a knockout, because he was so tired from continuous wrestling.

There is a possibility that the rematch will have a good referee assigned for the fight that will control the grappling. I doubt it though. There are so few good referees in boxing nowadays that enforce all the various fouls the way they should be in my opinion. If Ward is able to just grab Kovalev starting in the 1st round and stay attached to him for the next 11 rounds, then he’s going to need to be ready that kind of fighting, and I think he will.

Even if Ward does beat Kovalev in the rematch by choosing to take it to the inside for the full 12 rounds, I don’t see Ward being able to hold onto his titles for long. I think Artur Beterbiev will KO Ward when that fight happens. Beterbiev is a stronger fighter than Ward with incredible punching power on the inside. Beterbiev will take Ward’s inside game away immediately by nailing him with heavy head shots. Ward would then be forced to fight on the outside for 12 rounds. I don’t think he can beat Beterbiev with jabs, which is pretty much all Ward has at this point in his career.