Canelo’s next fight could be Saunders on May 6

By Boxing News - 12/23/2016 - Comments

Image: Canelo’s next fight could be Saunders on May 6

By Dan Ambrose: Instead of facing former WBC middleweight champion Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. on Cinco de Mayo, it’s looking like Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (48-1-1, 34 KOs) will be back inside the ring against WBO middleweight champion Billy Joe Saunders (24-0, 12 KOs) on the Mexico holiday on May 6.

Canelo and his promoters at Golden Boy were thinking of him fighting in February, but they don’t want to take a risk with his hand injury that he suffered in his last fight against WBO junior middleweight champion Liam Smith last September.

The World Boxing Organization paved the way for Canelo to get a title shot against Saunders by installing him as their No.1 mandatory challenger for the British fighter this week. The WBO’s reasoning for making the 26-year-old Canelo the mandatory for Saunders was based on his popularity. This obviously doesn’t sit too well for the guy that Canelo is replacing as the No.1 contender for Saunders, Avtandil Khurtsidze, because he’s been waiting patiently for a title shot against Saunders for some time. Saunders burned through the entire year with injuries, postponements, and cancellations until finally fighting fringe level contender Artur Akavov this month. Saunders had a lot of problems in beating Akavov, and some boxing fans thought the fight should have been scored a draw. It wouldn’t matter if Akavov won the title. Canelo would beat him just the same as he will Saunders.

If Canelo isn’t going to fight Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. in May, then that would be a good opponent for Golovkin to fight during the summer, provided he gets past Danny Jacobs in their fight on March 18 at Madison Square Garden in New York.

Golden Boy Promotions president Eric Gomez said this to ESPN.com about Canelo’s plans for his next fight:

“We haven’t decided yet what we want to do,” said Gomez. “It’s looking more and more like we’re going to wait for Canelo’s next fight until May.We don’t want to take any chances with his hand. You have to be careful. We want to make sure it’s 100 percent. The doctor hasn’t given him clearance yet. If we don’t pursue the mandatory with Saunders, there are a couple of other options.”

If Canelo passes up the fight against Saunders in May, then it’s going to put the WBO in the position where they’re going to need to make a decision whether to allow Khurtsidze to move ahead of Canelo to take the No.1 spot. The WBO can’t have Saunders sit out of the ring not fighting while he waits for over half the year for Canelo to get done with his May fight against someone else.

Saunders only fought once in 2016 after winning his WBO title in December 2015. He’s going to need to defend his title in the first half of 2017. Of course, Saunders can sit and wait on Canelo if he wants, as long as the WBO lets him do it, but it’s not going to look fair that Khurtsidze isn’t able to take the title shot. If Canelo doesn’t want to fight Saunders in May, then the fight should go to Khurtsidze. That’s why it’s very likely that Golden Boy will make the fight between Canelo and Saunders in May. They can’t just have Saunders sitting on the shelf waiting for Canelo to take a money fight against Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.

It’s a tough decision by Golden Boy to make for Canelo. Do they bypass the HUGE money that Canelo would get in fighting the ring rusty and slow as molasses Chavez Jr. by fighting Saunders in May or do they forget about the Saunders fight and choose the huge payday against Chavez Jr? The whole reason for Canelo winning the WBO title is to get to that belt before Golovkin does.

Once Canelo wins the WBO belt, it helps him potentially get a much bigger cut of the revenue against Golovkin. Canelo can go into the fight against Triple G as a champion in what would be a unification fight. This would be a strategy move by Golden Boy to get a lot more money for Canelo and put Golovkin in a bad position where he would have to accept the flat fee that has been offered to him for the fight. The flat fee is said to be $15 million. That means Canelo gets the lion’s share of the profits.

Right now, Golovkin and his management wants 40% of the revenue in a 60-40 deal against Canelo. They’re in the position to ask and receive that given that Golovkin holds three of the four titles and Canelo nothing. He’s just WBO 154lb champion, and not necessarily the best champion in that division. If Canelo wins the WBO middleweight title off of Saunders, then that limits Triple G’s options greatly. It would be sad though if Canelo took the fight against Chavez Jr. in May, and then Saunders waits around for Canelo until July so that he can still fight him. Realistically, if Canelo passes on the Saunders fight in May, the WBO SHOULD let Khurtsidze move ahead of Canelo to get the mandatory spot, but this is boxing. It’s quite possible that Canelo could wind up getting the Chavez Jr. fight and the title shot against Saunders.

It won’t work if Canelo fights Saunders in July. Canelo is supposed to be fighting Golovkin in September 2017. That’s what his promoters at Golden Boy have been saying. If Canelo fights Saunders in July, it would give him only two months to get ready for a fight against Golovkin in September. Is it possible? Yes, it’s technically possible for Canelo to fight in July and then come back and fight Golovkin in September, but I think it would very risky and it wouldn’t leave much time to market the fight.

Assuming that Canelo suffers a cut against Saunders, then there’s no way he’d be healed by September to fight Golovkin. I don’t think Canelo will even entertain the idea of potentially risking the Golovkin fight not happening by fighting someone in between May and September. There’s simply not enough time. That’s why Canelo will need to make a decision about his May fight. Does he take the WBO belt off of Saunders or does he take the huge payday against Chavez Jr?