Ward vs. Kovalev: Boxer vs. Puncher

By Boxing News - 11/14/2016 - Comments

Kov_Ward Presser

By Eric Baldwin: This Saturday’s contest between former super middleweight champion Andre Ward (30-0, 15 KOs) and IBF/WBA/WBO 175lb champion Sergey “Krusher” Kovalev (30-0-1, 26 KO) is a classic example of a boxer vs. the puncher type of fight at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Despite Ward not being known for his punching power, he believes that the boxing fans might be surprised when it’s said and done on Saturday night, because he believes he possesses more than enough punching power to get the job done against the 33-year-old Kovalev.

Ward has knocked out just two out of his last seven opponents though in stopping Paul Smith last year in 2015 and former WBC 175lb champion Chad Dawson in 2012. In Dawson’s case, he drained down to 168 to take the fight with Ward, which was a bad mistake on his part. There were rumors that Dawson had been hurt during a sparring session in preparing for the Ward fight, so we don’t know how that could have affected him before stepping foot inside the ring with Ward.

Unless the 32-year-old Ward can get a knockout early in the fight on Saturday, he’s going to need to take a lot of hard shots from Kovalev. It doesn’t matter how good Ward’s defense is, he’s going to get hit by Kovalev and he’s going to get hit hard. Kovalev won’t likely take the steam off of his shots in order to increase his punch accuracy. He obviously knows that his best chances of winning are for him to hit Ward as hard as he can with every shot.

If Ward can make Kovalev miss with 80% of his punches, then that will obviously help, but he’ll still need to be able to take the 20% that hit him cleanly. Ward was pretty lumped up in his narrow win over Carl Froch in 2011. That was Ward during the prime of his career. Ward is obviously no longer in his prime, and is slowly going downhill, whether he wants to admit it or not. It’s there to be seen by looking at tape of Ward’s last three fights during his comeback that he’s not the same fighter he was from 2004 to 2011. You can make an argument that Ward isn’t even close to being as good as he used to be. He’s lost that much from his game.

Ward said this to Skysports.com about him having enough power to get the win over Kovalev:
“We will see who is the puncher when all is said and done. There have been many times when the guy who had the jackhammer did not turn out to be that guy when the fight was over,” said Ward. “I know I hit hard enough. If Kovalev makes any mistakes then I will make him pay. He can be dropped and he can be knocked out.”

Kovalev is going to have two major advantages in this Saturday’s fight over Ward: A. Punch volume B. power.

The only thing Ward can do to negate Kovalev’s natural advantages if for him to limit his ability to get his shots off. That means that Ward may not to go back to holding or moving to keep Kovalev from landing, because he’s not going to be able to make him miss with eveyrthing he throws. It doesn’t matter how good Ward’s defense is. He’s not going to be able to duck or pick off everything that Kovalev throws his way. Ward will get hit with enough shots to catch the attention of the judges, and that’s if he doesn’t get hurt. Kovalev is a bigger puncher than Darnell Boone, and he’s a fighter that had Ward badly hurt in their 2005 fight. Boone dropped Ward in the 4th round and had him close to being knocked out.

Ward will need to increase his punch output for him to have a chance of hurting and stopping Kovalev on Saturday night, because he doesn’t appear to throw enough shots. Ward’s punch output is so low now. He doesn’t throw enough punches to knockout the better fighters. Ward got a knockout over Paul Smith, but he’s not a great fighter. He’s a super middleweight who had been knocked out by James DeGale and George Groves in the past.

If Ward is going to sit down on his shots in this fight on Saturday night, then he could wind up getting hurt. For Ward to make up for his lack of punching power, he’s got to land a lot of shots in the fight if he wants to get Kovalev out of there. For Ward to let his hands go in a meaningful way, he’ll make himself vulnerable in the process. That means he would be trading shots with Kovalev. Ward hasn’t done that with anyone during his career. He’s always been a one punch at a time type of fighter.

Even in his stoppage win over Mikkel Kessler in 2009, Ward threw one shot at a time, and frequently rammed heads with the Danish fighter. Kessler ended up with cuts over both eyes from head-butts in that match, and it eventually caused the stoppage.

“The fight with Kovalev is huge and for a fight of this magnitude to be my first Las Vegas appearance is more than fitting and I’m ready to show up in a big way,” said Ward.

It’s good news for Kovalev that the fight is taking place in Las Vegas, Nevada rather than in Ward’s hometown of Oakland, California. Ward has had four out of his last five fights in Oakland. Ward fights at a high level when he’s at home in Oakland in front of large pro-Ward crowds. How well Ward will fight in Las Vegas in front of crowds that may favor Kovalev is the big question.

Kovalev is a very popular fighter now, but it’s unknown whether he’ll have the crowd in his favor on Saturday. Kovalev has only fought twice in Las Vegas in the last five years of his pro career. However, the Las Vegas crowds like to see slugging and all –action, which Kovalev brings to his fight.

If Kovalev is the one that is throwing the power shots on Saturday, then the crowd will likely rally behind him rather than the American Ward. It would be in Ward’s best interest not to do a lot of holding and wrestling in this fight like we’ve seen from him in the past. The boxing fans will be paying their hard-earned money to see the fight live on Saturday, and they might not be too favorable at seeing a bunch of holding like we’ve seen from Ward in his past fights. If Ward is serious about him wanting to make Kovalev pay when he makes mistakes, then he needs to throw punches and not just do a lot of holding like he sometimes does.

Ward was able to use holding and wrestling to get the better of Allan Green, Chad Dawson and Carl Froch. Whether he can do the same thing against Kovalev is unknown. The boxing fans don’t want to see wrestling though. Ward needs to fight on Saturday and not turn this into an ugly affair. The fight will be televised on HBO pay-per-view, and that’s another reason why Ward should try and not turn the fight into a grappling contest.