Tony Bellew vs. BJ Flores analysis and prediction

By Boxing News - 10/08/2016 - Comments

bellew

By Scott Gilfoid: WBC World cruiserweight champion Tony Bellew (27-2-1, 17 KOs) will be making his first defense of his title this Saturday night on October 15 against #14 WBC BJ Flores (32-2-1, 20 KOs) at the Echo Arena in Liverpool, England. It’s still unclear how Bellew’s promoter Eddie Hearn was able to get him a voluntary defense of his World Boxing Council title, because he was supposed to defend his title against the #1 WBC mandatory challenger Mairis Breidis in his first defense.

Bellew captured the vacant WBC title in his 3rd round knockout win over Ilunga Makabu last May. When the title is vacant, the new champion is supposed to fight the #1 mandatory in their first defense. It’s interesting that Bellew is being allowed to fight a voluntary fight against near bottom fringe contender Flores rather than having to fight a very, very dangerous challenger in Breidis.

What this means is that Bellew’s chances of success against Flores are probably much higher than they would be if he faced the talented Breidis, who looks to be hard to beat this point in his career. I rate Breidis as one of the top three best fighters in the cruiserweight division behind No.1 Oleksandr Usyk and Kzystof Glowacki. I think Breidis beats all the other fighters in the division including Bellew, Marco Huck and Denis Lebedev.

It’s nice that Bellew doesn’t have to face Breidis yet, but he’s still going to have to fight him unless he vacates to avoid the fight. I don’t think Bellew will do that. But he’s going to be in a world of hurt when that fight eventually happens. He might as well live it up now with his mismatch against Flores, because I see things ending drearily for Bellew once he gets inside the ring with the HIGHLY talented and intelligent Breidis. I’m just saying.

Okay, so Bellew is fighting the 37-year-old Flores this Saturday night in front of his home fans in Liverpool. It doesn’t look good for Flores. He’s ranked nearly at the very bottom of the World Boxing Council’s rankings, and for good reason. Flores looked dreadful in losing to Beibut Shumenov by a one-sided 12 round unanimous decision last year in July 2015. Shumenov pretty much clowned Flores for 12 rounds.

The scores the three judges handed down in that fight were quite kind to Flores, as they had him losing 116-112, 116-112 and 116-112. I saw the fight and I had Shumenov pitching a shutout in winning all 12 rounds. I honestly don’t know what fight the judges were watching, because NO WAY on earth did Flores deserve to lose by 116-112 x 3.

That was too close. Flores has only once since then in beating some guy names Roberto Santos. I’ve never heard of him before. I don’t know where Flores found him, but the guy isn’t ranked in the top 15. Flores only fought once in 2015, and thus far only once in 2016. He hasn’t exactly been the busiest of cruiserweights. I’m just wondering why there hasn’t been sense of urgency. If you’re 37, and ranked #14 by the WBC, it tells me that you need to get busy and start fighting frequently and against talented opposition.

Before Flores’ loss to Shumenov last year, he’s burned up five years of his career facing lesser opposition. Flores’ last talented opponent on his resume was in his fight against former IBO cruiserweight champion Danny Green, who he lost to by a 12 round unanimous decision in November 2010. After that defeat, Flores went on a five year run where he faced lesser opposition. I don’t know why he waited five years before fighting someone with talent in Shumenov.

This Saturday’s Bellew-Flores fight comes down to these areas:

Power -The power edge goes to Bellew. Flores isn’t much of a puncher despite having a respectable KO percentage of 57. However, Flores isn’t stupid, so he’s not going to back up against the ropes and play sparring partner for Bellew to tee off on this Saturday night. Flores is smart, an he’ll stay in the center of the ring and look to turn Bellew into an ape in front of his own fans by using his boxing skills.

Speed -This goes to Flores. He’s faster than Bellew, even at 37. Bellew is like a rusty tin man in the ring. He just does not have any hand speed whatsoever.

Ring IQ -Flores is the smarter of the two, period. You can’t doubt Flores’ brain. He knows how to maximize his talent. Flores’ problem is he doesn’t fight enough against good opposition. It’s too bad, because he probably would have accomplished so much more in his career than he has. Anyway, Flores is going to be setting traps all night long against Bellow. Unfortunately, I don’t see Flores getting credit for anything he does when it comes to winning rounds. Flores is after all fighting in Liverpool, so I think he’s pretty much up against it in this fight and will need a knockout to win.

Talent – Flores is clearly more talented than Bellew. I think Flores is one of the most talented fighters in the cruiserweight division. However, he lacks youth and power. The lack of punching power will hurt Flores on Saturday night. But what will hurt Flores’ chances of winning is the fact that he’s fighting in front of Bellew’s fans at the Echo Arena. As such, Flores will be lucky if he wins one round no matter how good he looks. If the crowd is only going to be cheering for when Bellew lands a shot, I see the judges scoring the rounds for him. If Flores has Usyk’s power, Bellew would be in for a world of hurt on Saturday, because the fight wouldn’t go to the cards.

Hometown advantage – Bellew is the hometown fighter, so this area goes to him. I think the hometown advantage is the No.1 key in the fight. If this match took place in the United States, I think Flores beats Bellew badly. But with the fight taking place in the UK in front of Bellew’s fans, I can’t see the judges giving it to Flores. I think we’re going to see another Ricky Burns vs. Kiryl Relikh type decision.