Pacquiao to decide on Crawford or Vargas next week

By Boxing News - 08/06/2016 - Comments

Image: Pacquiao to decide on Crawford or Vargas next week

By Chris Williams: Manny Pacquiao says he can’t speak on who he’ll be facing for his next fight on November 5th until he meets with his promoter Bob Arum next week. Top Rank boss Bob Arum will be flying over next week to meet with Pacquiao in the Philippines so that the two of them can decide between Terence Crawford and Jessie Vargas for his next fight in November.

It’s thought by some boxing fans that Arum wants Pacquiao to fight Crawford because he has more star potential than the 27-year-old Vargas. However, fighting Crawford would involve Pacquiao moving down to 140 and fighting the American at his own weight for his WBC/WBO light welterweight belts.

Crawford has already said that he wants to fight at his own weight. There would be the hardship for Pacquiao if he agrees to fight Crawford. There would also be the trouble involved in dealing with Crawford’s mobility and constantly changing fighting stances.

“I can’t answer questions about boxing, because it’s still not on my mind. When Bob Arum gets here, that’s when we’ll talk about boxing, about what we need to talk about, and see if there’s development on a fight. For now, I’m busy working at the office,” said Pacquiao to rappler.com.

If Arum is so eager to have Pacquiao fight Crawford in an attempt to turn Crawford into a star, then he at least needs to have Pacquiao fight Vargas first. That’s a sure fire win for Pacquiao. Arum could then match Pacquiao against Crawford so that his last two fights are against his own Top Rank stable fighters so that he can keep the money in house.

From Pacquiao’s stand point, he would be better off if he got Arum to match him against guys not named Crawford and Vargas. Instead of fighting those guys, who aren’t pay-per-view attraction, Pacquiao needs to fight the likes of Danny Garcia, Keith Thurman, Miguel Cotto or Saul “Canelo” Alvarez. If Arum is unable to put those fights together, then he should look to match Pacquiao against Kell Brook or Amir Khan.

I think either of those guys would be better for Pacquiao than him getting stuck fighting Vargas or Crawford in fights that the casual boxing fans would have little interest in seeing. I know there are hardcore fans who would like to see Pacquiao fight Crawford, but those aren’t the casual fans.

You have to remember that the casual fans of the sport in the U.S mainly just know of Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Pacquiao. It’s not going to help Pacquiao fighting unknowns, even if they’re in the same Top Rank stable as him. It might help Top Rank in the long run by Vargas and Crawford becoming more popular after they fight Pacquiao, but I don’t see them being turned into PPV attractions just because they fought Pacquiao.

If Pacquiao is going to wait until Arum meets with him before he makes his decision about his next opponent, then it’s quite possible that he’ll fight whoever Arum wants him to fight. In that case, it would be predictable to see Pacquiao fighting Crawford on November 5. I think that’s a bad move for Arum, a bad move for Top Rank, and an especially bad move for Pacquiao.

If he fights Crawford, he’ll struggle with his running fighting style and likely lose the fight. Pacquiao doesn’t have the wheels to catch-up to Crawford, and I can’t see him winning a decision with him out of breath from chasing him all night long. It’s bad for Arum and Top Rank, because I think Pacquiao will retire permanently after a loss to Crawford.

Even if Pacquiao doesn’t retire, I see his pay-per-view numbers dropping off in his future fights. Pacquiao has been a big money maker in the last eight years for him and Top Rank. If you feed Pacquiao to a non-PPV fighter like Crawford, he’ll lose and the Pacquiao money train may grind to a halt. At the same time, I seriously doubt that Crawford will be able to step into the breach to become a PPV star on his own to take up the slack for the lost revenue after Pacquiao gets beaten. I don’t see Crawford as that type of fighter. I see him more as a Tim Bradley or Brandon Rios type of guy in terms of popularity. So by having Pacquiao fight Crawford and likely losing the fight, Arum will be shooting himself in the foot.

It would be better for Pacquiao to be matched against guys that he can beat like Vargas. Arum should look outside his Top Rank organization to match Pacquiao against guys like Danny Garcia so that he’s given a good chance of facing guys that he’s still capable of defeating.

Putting Pacquiao in with a guy like Crawford is dumb idea in my opinion. Pacquiao loses that fight because can’t catch up to the running Crawford. Once Pacquiao loses, the future PPV money he makes will likely drop off to a trickle like we saw after his loss to Floyd Mayweather Jr. last year.

“Those are the questions I can’t answer yet. I haven’t talked to Bob Arum. I think they’re going here next week, so that’s when we’ll start talking. For now, I’m busy at the office,” said Pacquiao.

It looks like Pacquiao is going to defer to Arum when it comes to making the selection for his next opponent. If Pacquiao is going to bend to Arum’s will in selecting his next opponent, then I feel it’s going to be a slam dunk with Pacquiao winding up fighting Crawford next. I can just picture how that fight will go. Crawford running around the ring while being chased for 12 rounds by Pacquiao. Crawford may win the fight, but I don’t think he’s going to gain any popularity from the fight.

If Arum has his mind made up that he’s going to match Pacquiao against Crawford, then he should sit down with the Omaha, Nebraska native and impress upon the fact that he needs to change his style of fighting to become more stationary, more exciting and more like Gennady Golovkin if he wants him to get anything from fighting Pacquiao. Look at super bantamweight champion Guillermo Rigondeaux; he should have been turned into a star after he beat Nonito Donaire in their fight several years ago. Rigondeaux used clever counter punching and movement to box Donaire’s head off in that fight. However, instead of becoming a star, Rigondeaux was soon no longer having his fights televised by HBO and he was eventually dropped by Top Rank.

If Crawford runs and counter punches his way to a boring decision over Pacquiao, I don’t see it helping his career. Crawford won’t get a bounce from the win. The victory would be an empty one where he could lose popularity. That’s why Arum needs to have a long, long talk with Crawford to try and impress upon him the need for him to fight in a more exciting manner and to stop running in his fights.