By Earl E: Most people who follow boxing are counting out Kell Brook in his fight against IBF/IBO/WBA/WBC middleweight champion Gennady “GGG” Golovkin on September 10 at the O2 Arena in London, England. However, if you were to evaluate your prediction, based on how judges score rounds, you may think otherwise. Of course, this analysis is based on Brook surviving the 12 rounds against the knockout artist, Gennady Golovkin.
I believe Brook has a solid chance in making it through the 12 rounds to hear a decision, because Brook has fought 11 out of 36 fights for a decision, or 31% of his fights went to decision. On the other hand, Golovkin has fought 35 fights and only 3 went to decision, for a low 9%.
You can argue that because Golovkin is used to knocking out his opponents, he did not have to go the distance, but you can also argue that he lacks experience in having to go the distance, or have the stamina to go the distance, which gives Brook the advantage.
If the fight does go to decision, then let’s examine how fights are scored. The judges determine rounds by the following:
Effective Aggression-In other words, the fighter who gives the impression that he is dominating by landing punches and avoiding punches. Golovkin is excellent in cutting the ring, throwing solid and clean punches. Brook also can win this rating factor, because he will land punches via counter punch and has excellent reflects to avoid punches. I predict a DRAW in this rating factor.
Ring Generalship- The fighter who controls the action and enforces his will and style. Brook will clinch, land counter punches, and avoid punches. This is the style that won against a determined Shawn Porter, and thus this style will frustrate Golovkin, who has never fought a fighter with this skill set. I predict Brook in this rating factor.
Defense- The simple word of using techniques to avoid getting punched, such techniques as slipping, blocking punches, etc. Brook will be on survival mode and when you’re on survival mode your reflexes and senses are extremely sharp. Golovkin will be in brawler mode looking to KO Brook so that he doesn’t have to avoid a decision in Brook’s home court. I believe because of this, Golovkin isn’t thinking defense at all. And, why should he? He is the Goliath while Brook is David. Hence, this rating factor will go to Brook.
Hard and Clean Punches- No need to explain this rating factor. I’ve read enough articles and comments to know that the writers and audience of this website understand boxing. It’s clear Golovkin has shown that he can throw his hands, and he throws it with bad intentions. He also lands cleanly because of his composure and confidence. Rating factor, to Golovkin.
Analyzing the above and based on boxing rating factors, I predict Brook will win by Majority Decision (MD). We make sound predictions based on history, and Brook’s historical fight record shows two MDs. Come September 10, 2016 he may earn his third.