By Patrick McHugh: It’s impossible to know how many pay-per-view buys that Saul “Canelo” Alvarez vs. Liam Smith fight will bring in on HBO for their fight on September 17, but Golden Boy Promotions CEO Oscar De La Hoya believes it’s going to be a ton. De La Hoya is gauging the ultimate pay-per-view buys for the Canelo-Smith fight based on the ticket sales for their fight at the AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
De La Hoya says the ticket sales thus far are outpacing the ticket sales for the Manny Pacquiao vs. Antonio Margarito fight that took place at the same Texas Stadium six year years ago in November 2010.
That fight brought in 1.15 million pay-per-view buys on HBO, and it sold 41,734 tickets. So with those numbers in mind, De La Hoya expects Canelo vs. Smith to do better than 1.15 million buys on HBO and more than 41,734 tickets sold.
The question is why would more boxing fans be interested in paying to see Canelo fight a little known fighter like Liam Smith than in his last two fights against the much known Amir Khan and Miguel Cotto? It doesn’t make sense.
“We really can’t say how many pay-per-views it’s going to sell, but we’re expecting a big number,” De La Hoya said earlier today in his media conference call with Canelo. “We strongly feel that Canelo’s star power is only growing, and as we get closer to the fight we will have a better indication. But we always gage our numbers by how many tickets we’re selling in the arena and we’re out-pacing Manny Pacquiao ticket sales, so we expect a strong number.”
I don’t believe that the Canelo vs. Smith fight is going to bring in a ton of PPV buys. I do think it will bring in around 300,000 PPV buys on HBO, which is around the same level that Canelo brought in for his fight against Erislandy Lara in July 2014. That fight brought in 325,000 pay-per-view buys on Showtime. Canelo’s last fight against Amir Khan last May brought in 600,000 PPV buys on HBO.
The At&T Stadium seats 90,000. It’s very hard to believe that even half that number will come to see Canelo fight Liam Smith. This is a British fighter and he’s not seen as the best of the champions at 154. This will be Smith’s first time fighting in the United States, and that’s not good for Canelo and Golden Boy. It means that the casual boxing fans likely have never heard of Smith before.
“Ticket sales are going incredibly well,” said De La Hoya “We’re out-pacing the last two Manny Pacquiao fights that were held at the AT&T Stadium, so Jerry Jones is extremely happy. The fans are happy. We’re happy. And I’m sure Canelo and Liam Smith are going to be really happy when they see the turnout at the arena. I think the question is going to be ‘when’ he out-sells the Pacquiao ticket sales at the arena.”
I’m sure that a lot of tickets will be sold for the Canelo-Smith fight, but I think a percentage of the seat will be filled with tickets being given away at the last minute to fill the stadium when it becomes clear that they’re not going to be able to sell the tickets. There’s nothing wrong with fans getting complimentary tickets, as long as De La Hoya is up front about that. It’s not a good fight to attract interest from the boxing public.
Instead of matching Canelo against the little known Liam Smith, Golden Boy should have put him in with Gennady Golovkin, Daniel Jacobs, Jermall Charlo, Erislandy Lara, Demetrius Andrade, Julian Williams or Jermell Charlo. Those are guys that would have made it tough on Canelo because they would have had a chance of beating him.
I doubt that golden Boy would want to put Canelo in with guys that could maybe beat him, but at least we’d see a good competitive fight on September 17. Believe me, if this were a Canelo vs. Golovkin fight, the tickets would be flying out the window for AT&T Stadium. Golovkin vs. Canelo fight would sell itself because the boxing world would be so eager to see that fight. It would sell, but it would also be a very dangerous fight for Canelo.