Canelo vs. Smith tale of the tape

By Boxing News - 08/22/2016 - Comments

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By Dan Ambrose: The 5’9” Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (47-1-1, 33 KOs) will be giving up a little in the way of height to the 5’10” WBO junior middleweight champion Liam “Beefy” Smith (23-0-1, 13 KOs) in their fight in less than a month from now on September 17 at the AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. In the tale of the tape, Canelo has a three inch reach advantage at 72 inches compared to Smith’s 69”.

(Photo credit: Golden Boy Promotions)

You can bet that Canelo will be looking to take advantage of his reach by jabbing on the outside as much as possible. Canelo, 26, has a good jab, and he likes to use it to avoid getting hit when he faces guys that have shorter arms. Smith, 27, is going to need to get in close for him to land his big body shots. That’s where Smith has a real chance of winning this fight, because Canelo’s main weakness is his ability take hard body punches.

Canelo can be out-boxed by faster guys with good mobility. That obviously isn’t something that Smith is going to be able to do, because he’s not very fast on his feet. Smith likes to bang with big power shots, and never hard to find in the ring.

Canelo’s promoters at Golden Boy have obviously done their homework on Smith and concluded that he’s not a threat to out-boxing Canelo the way that Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Erislandy Lara both did.

Smith hasn’t fought anyone as talented as Canelo before, and that’s going to make it difficult for him to win this fight unless he gets good sparring to get ready for this. There’s not a lot of sparring partners good enough to get someone like Smith ready for Canelo. That’s just not possible. Smith will need to do the best he can with the guys that are brought in by his management for him to spar with.

Smith needs to focus on tactics because he’s going to need to get in close enough to land his body shots, but he’s also going to need to figure out how to get out of the way of Canelo’s hard hooks that he likes to throw. Canelo has a lot of power, but that power diminishes when he’s forced to fight hard.

Here are the tactics Smith must use to beat Canelo on September 17:

Pressure: Smith must apply consistent pressure for the entire fight in order not to let Canelo rest. Canelo is like a machine that needs constant recharging for him to be successful. Canelo is just like his brothers Ramon Alvarez and Rigoberto Alvarez. The way to beat both of those fighters is to push the attack for the full three minutes of every round until they run out of gas and turn ragged. Rigoberto no longer fights, but that was his main weakness during his career. Canelo is no different. When he’s forced to fight at a very fast pace against someone that doesn’t let up on him, he fades quickly. The thing is, Canelo is dangerous with the power shots he throws before he gasses out. Smith will need to be careful for him to have a chance of pulling off the upset.

Body punching: Liam Smith needs to go after Canelo’s body when possible. It’s not going to be easy though, because for him to attack Canelo’s body, he’ll leave himself open for head shots. Smith will need to be calculated in how he attacks Canelo’s body so that he doesn’t get tagged too often. If Smith feels confident that he can take Canelo’s best shots while attacking his body, then he should go for it, because body punching is the key to beating Canelo. He’s able to take head shots really well, but he doesn’t handle body punches nearly so well.

Defense: Smith must keep his guard up for Canelo’s hooks to the head that he likes to throw. Canelo’s punch arsenal is pretty predictable. He throws the same punches over and over again, so there shouldn’t be any mystery involved in this fight.

Movement: At times, Smith will need to use movement to keep Canelo off of him when he starts to land too many big power shots. Smith needs to stop whatever momentum that Canelo has in the fight by stepping away for a moment. The crowd will be on Canelo’s side fully, as the fight will be taking place in Texas. Smith can expect Canelo to fight harder than ever because of his fans cheering for him.