By Scott Gilfoid: In less than two weeks, IBF heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua (16-0, 16 KOs) will be putting his title and unbeaten record on the line against undefeated #13 IBF challenger Dominic Breazeale (17-0, 15 KOs) on June 25 on Sky Box Office from the O2 Arena in London, England.
Breazeale, 6’7”, was probably been selected because of him being an unbeaten American with 2012 Olympic experience. It’s common knowledge that Joshua recently signed a multi-fight contract with Showtime Boxing in the United States to have his fights televised in that country.
What better way to please Showtime than to fight an American so that can at least attract some interest. I don’t think this particular fight will attract much interest in America, but at least some of the hardcore fans will tune in,
Former two-division world champion Paulie Malignaggi thinks that Joshua should be favored right now due to him fighting well right now, and fighting at home in front of his own fans in London. However, Malignaggi expects the 30-year-old Breazeale to come into the fight with a great game plan, and he thinks that could make it interesting. Both fighters are still on their way up in their respective careers and have not learned to lose as of yet. Malignaggi sees that to mean that they’ll be willing to take more punishment than they otherwise would if they had been in the pro game for a long time.
“One thing about when guys are still on the rise, they’re more willing to take more punishment before giving in and surrendering,” said Malignaggi to secondsout.com. “I think you’ll see that from both guys, although times when Joshua hits you, if you’re not cognizant, it doesn’t matter how much you want to fight, you’re not able to fight. You certainly favor Joshua. He’s also the home fighter, and the guy who’s looking better and better. But Breazeale is coming with a great game plan and I’m sure his determined, and with all that’s on the line for this fight, you’re more willing to go through hell fire to achieve that goal,” said Malignaggi.
My thoughts on the Joshua-Breazeale fight are that it’s probably going to be a mismatch. I wasn’t too impressed with Breazeale’s last two performances against Amir Mansour and Fred Kassi. Yes, Breazeale won both fights, but he looked terrible though portions of both fights. I thought Kassi deserved the victory in their fight last September. Breazeale won the fight by a 10 round decision, but I didn’t agree with that.
Here’s how I see the Joshua vs. Breazeale fight stacking up:
Power: Joshua
Speed: Joshua
Experience: Even
Ring IQ Breazeale
Size: Even
Coaching:: Even
Hometown advantage: Joshua
Boxing ability: Joshua
Youth: Joshua
I think Joshua, 26, has the advantage in every category you can imagine for this fight. That does not mean he’s going to beat Breazeale necessarily. If Breazeale comes out swinging and starts flurrying in the first couple of rounds, he could take Joshua out fast. Breazeale has the size to take Joshua out if he starts throwing bombs from round one.
My advice to Breazeale is to go after Joshua immediately from round one, because if he waits around hoping to get the fight into the later rounds of the contest, he won’t make it. Joshua will land one of his big shots and start flurrying with arm punches. The good news for Breazeale is that Joshua’s form breaks down entirely when he starts throwing flurries. Joshua is usually just throwing arm punches in hopes of scoring a KO. Joshua’s not putting anything into the shots because he’s just flailing with his punches.
If Breazeale can get Joshua into that mode, he’ll be killing two birds with one stone by both tiring him out and breaking down his form so that he’s throwing arm shots rather than power shots. Joshua is only good at throwing with power when he’s able to stay on the outside and getting plenty of rest. When Joshua isn’t gassing from fighting hard, he can load up on shots from the outside. But when you work Joshua hard like Dillian Whyte was in the 2nd round of their fight last December, Joshua is just another heavyweight in the Larry Olubamiwo and Frank Bruno mold.
You beat the Bruno’s and Olubamiwo type heavyweights by turning the fight into a war and making them expend energy for three minutes of every round. You don’t do what Charles Martin did by standing on the outside and letting Joshua pick his spots to load up on shots. You go after him and look to take his head off with a flurry of shots as fast as possible, because that’s how you beat this type of heavyweight.
Breazeale has a puncher’s chance of winning this fight against Joshua. Breazeale just needs to realize that he MUST start fast and be first with his shots in the opening round. If Breazeale just waits for Joshua to clock him with a right hand like Martin did, he’ll wind up too hurt to fire back anything of substance. Breazeale needs to have Joshua unravel by looking to throw 100 punches in the first three rounds.
Believe me, Joshua will be gassed by the time the fight gets to the fourth round if he’s forced to match Breazeale’s work rate. Joshua’s power will be gone because he can only throw with power when he’s getting a lot of rest and lot of oxygen for his heavy 250lb frame. Joshua needs oxygen for all those muscles he’s carrying around. When you have a body building type physique, it can be hard at times when you’re forced to fight hard for a sustained period of time against guys that aren’t carrying around all that muscle. Fighters with large muscles like Joshua are better for shorter fights fought at a slower pace rather than for longer ones fought at a fast pace. That’s why Breazeale must go for broke by turning up the heat on Joshua and keeping it there for as long as he can to wear him down and break down his form.
Prediction: Joshua wins by 4th round knockout over Breazeale. I think Breazeale won’t fight at a fast pace like he should. I think Breazeale is going to fight at a slow pace, and he’ll wind up getting knocked out quickly just like Charles Martin did in his recent loss to Joshua.