Amir Khan could win, but I would not bet against Canelo Álvarez

By Boxing News - 05/06/2016 - Comments

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by: Shaun La – Tomorrow evening, in Las Vegas, at the T-Mobile Arena, Amir Khan (31-3 with 19 knockouts) will be entering into a boxing ring for a chance to earn the Ring Magazine belt, the WBC middleweight title and a lineal prestige. Agreeing to box Canelo Álvarez (46-1 with 1 DRAW, 32 knockouts) at a catch-weight of 155 pounds, the boxing world has been passionately explaining, it will be the heaviest weight that Amir has ever carried into a professional boxing ring; it will be a glimpse of his elevation through the weight classes, ever since winning the WBA International Lightweight (130 pounds) title with his 20th pro bout against Oisin Fagan in 2008.

As the title of my article expresses, “Amir Khan could win, but I would not bet against Canelo Álvarez,” is an example of my opinion favoring an accurately balanced fight. This bout has flashing lights around both of their names, a lot press along with huge fan bases for both of these boxers to toss back and forth, their encouragement on how their boxer will win against the other boxer. However, when you look at the mental, physical and athletic levels from both of these boxers, this bout could ease into a Fight of the Year kind of situation.

Amir is the taller boxer, going up in weight. Canelo is the bigger boxer at a weight he feels physically comfortable with, a successful negotiation point that he had control over when this bout was being put together. It is a catch-weight fight. A form of prizefighting that has become a trend for boxers with a brand in the sport of boxing to meet at, sell out the venue, have the sanctioning bodies accept it, and then after the bout—the boxing world awaits to see if the boxer is going to go up or down in a weight class, keeping or giving up their sanctioned, world championship belt or being welcomed and ranked high in a new weight-class with a new world championship bout awaiting their brand. The acceptance of a catch-weight situation can make pure boxing fans seem unconvinced on boxers meeting at a catch-weight outside of a sanctioning body weight-class; however, it is still a professional bout with professional boxing that counts for the sport of boxing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRHX7KTY1gQ

What makes Amir offense, dangerously serious, is his natural speed (something that I believe he was born with and not to be confused with quickness, which can be taught) and his boxing I.Q. It is a boxing I.Q. that rode the learning curves through the amateur ranks, as well as the early part of his professional boxing.

Depending on how you observe Amir’s professional career, there are three segments to his professional boxing career revolving around his progression through the weight-classes. Professionally starting off at the lightweight division, graduating into jr. welterweight, ambitiously seeking the top boxers at welterweight, and now, here we have him boxing at a catch-weight near the middleweight fence.

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The first segment would be, living up to the initial hype that was expected of him, when he finally turned pro after gaining respect in the 2004 Olympics by bringing back a Silver medal for Britain. Then there is the rebuilding of his boxing career, off of the rubble, from the shocking and powerful knockout lost to Breidis Prescott, (the fight following this lost to Breidis was for the vacant WBA International Lightweight title), losing a decision to Lamont Peterson and the clever power-shots that Danny Garcia happen to land on him. Losing a decision to Lamont and being knocked out by Danny were in the jr. welterweight division.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-sdkwfR4ul4

Before Lamont’s win via a split decision. It was believed that Amir was caught with a lucky shot by Breidis—this is what his fans would say. Outside of the dedicated fans for Amir, boxing fans would commonly question his chin, and offer credit to Breidis for seeing an open target to aim, plus succeeding with landing his punches on Amir. Yet, when Amir went down more than once from Danny’s power punches. The third man in the ring, official referee Kenny Bayless stopped the bout. This point about Amir’s chin being able to take a punch, became the prime point for anyone who wanted to side against him in a bout.

Throughout the lightweight and jr. welterweight years, the boxing world evaluated Amir’s professional career with a two-way understanding—which was his natural talents (speed, punching power and proven boxing experience) as one balancing strength and if he could take a punch, and his lack of being a Pay-Per-View headlining professional boxing brand like a Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao were weaknesses that the boxing world balanced on the other side of the scale, when it came down to weighing and seeing him as an elite boxer or just a good champion?

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The second segment of Amir’s career are about the days and wins he gathered while being coached by Freddie Roach. It is not a hidden discourse that Amir, after parting ways with Freddie has been critical of his former coach’s way of training him. Coach Freddie has thrown his own verbal jabs against Amir as well. Whichever way that one wish to filter out whose side is properly on point—the basis of it all, would be this: They won some professional bouts together and Freddie did train Amir as an offensive force which favored speed over defense, a lot of punches being thrown, over the setting up of a punch and just being an all around active boxer. Coach Freddie has always been a corner leader who pushed dropping the bombs of gloved fists over some smart defensive, sweet-science, calculating before you counter kind of boxing blueprint.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0VDViedlgOs

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This third segment of Amir’s professional boxing is about a new boxing folder containing thinking and using footwork, all of which is channeled through Coach Virgil Hunter. Quiet confidence is Virgil’s approach to training his boxers. He is in favor of the basics in boxing, jab, move, work your feet, give your opponent no angles, unless it is for the setup to unload effective punching on your opposition. Coach Virgil has trained Andre Ward, and Andre Berto to stay in the parameters of the boxing basics and it has been working for the both of them.

Now, could it work for Amir Khan at a new, heavier weight?

If we look on paper, Amir is the sharper boxer, when the subject about his natural abilities are presented, and when compared to Canelo. He has a slightly longer reach; also, he can box with a smooth lateral movement (something Coach Freddie supported when they were on the same team). What I observed from Coach Virgil’s training of Amir, would be the smart offensive weapon that points to Virgil teaching Amir about how to create space. Against Luis Collazo, Devon Alexander, and Chris Algieri, the awareness of establishing enough space to get off his speedy combos have been a very impressive skill that he has maintained. Amir has been using wide but compact, hook like punches in an intelligent way. He counters with these wide compact punches when the space is measured properly, throwing off his opponents, who may expect the speed of his punches to come right down the middle, and they try to work side to side head movements to offset Amir’s speed. However, these wide, compact, hook like punches can line up the speedy jab right down the middle. All of these new lessons being practiced by Amir can be credited to Coach Virgil.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXRxN9LnAVg

Okay, below is what I believe to be a sheet on how Amir could win against Canelo:

He has to exercise movement around the ring. Maybe those days in the amateurs, when learning footwork was essential on knowing how to throw a punch while being properly balanced to those Coach Freddie days, where lateral movement from Amir came with a speedy barrage of punches, aimed while landing on his opponents. Apply his background to knowing boxing footwork, to how Coach Virgil has him measuring the space and impact of his punches, and he can make it an evening in the boxing classroom for Canelo—giving him boxing lessons. Even if Amir can take Canelo biggest punches, he should not be walking into anything! In the past, Amir did not properly measure his boxing space, and he would walk in, perhaps thinking he could land the speedier punches; thus backing up his opposition. At times, he was successful with this kind of speedy punching, beating his opposition to the punch, but when he was caught, the opposition usually landed strong punches that would invite Amir into deep, troubled rounds.

Amir had snapping power at lightweight, jr. welter and the welterweight divisions. He does not need to go in there and think that he can slug it out with the heavy hitting Canelo. In contrast to Amir, Canelo’s movement and punches are slow. Yet, when it comes down to the pace of this fight, the possibility of pressure being applied to Amir, could put Canelo into a world, where he can land some big shots on Amir—Marcos Maidana worked this pressure with the heavy punches offense, when they boxed at jr. welterweight. Canelo has a terrific base of weight that he knows how to plant, and this is how he centers his power punching. This is why I believed Floyd Jr. mastered his radar of movement around the ring into a full effect, giving Canelo the smallest room possible to plant his feet and throw out the power punching. Another benefit for Floyd’s boxing style over Canelo’s pursuing pressure, would be his defensive first mindset, with a counter-punching commitment. Floyd Jr. made Canelo box, and pursue him, but what Floyd Jr. used to win the bout, was a ring I.Q. that keen enough to prevent a brawl.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s8a1B1IX3-g

Wisely so, Amir cannot box Canelo the way that Floyd Jr. fought him, or even Austin Trout and Erislandy Lara, who had some successful rounds against Canelo. Every boxer should have their own style and heart. Both, Floyd Jr. & Austin moved their feet, punched when they slowed down a little from their movement and then they enticed Canelo to come forward towards them. Erislandy was a boxer who exhibited strong movement, pushing the jab when he fought Canelo. Even though Erislandy and Austin lost to Canelo, anyone who would like to view some possibilities on how to win some rounds against him, should review these pair of bouts, along with the Floyd Jr. mega-bout.

Again, watch Amir’s feet during this fight. If he can faint to make Canelo miss, or step outside of Canelo’s leading foot, the wide compact, hook like punches could come, but only if Amir has the space to measure Canelo correctly; if this bout goes beyond six rounds, Amir chances of winning by a decision, increases. He has to be the absolute boxer in this bout. He has to cut the ring off, make Canelo fall for the faints and cover up from the speedy combos, giving the judges the more active boxer presentation, winning the rounds that could have went either way. Expect the first three or four rounds to be all about Canelo applying heated pressure to Amir. Do not underestimate Amir’s boxing I.Q. Coach Virgil Hunter’s corner skills are clearly communicative to his boxers, this should help remind Amir to box, not brawl in the corner or in the middle of the ring.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KwWgEsw3DVo

This is the mountain top of the whole bout, a mountain top that Amir has to rock climb against: Canelo does not stop coming forward–his punches can be a boulder moving down a mountain, accumulating power with every new punch thrown. When he was losing against Floyd Jr., the man continued to throw punches. He has the fortitude of an early Roberto Durán, or a Miguel Cotto during his jr. welterweight years, where giving up was not an option. There is a grit to Canelo’s boxing approach. He does know how to box, when he has to, his mentality is controlling inside of the ring and his calculations on punching are not thought out before hand, because he comes to fight with instincts—yet what he lacks in speed, he recovers by seeing a way to deconstruct his opponents, by sustaining a pressurized offensive boxing arsenal. The kind of boxer Canelo can be inside of the ring can be deceiving to the numbers that you see can read written down on paper or in highlight reels on You Tube. He can excel at making his opposition feel lost in the ring, because the relentless weight of his punches are the bonus to his strength and conditioning.

This does not mean that he can outbox a pure boxer (how some would perceive Amir). What it does mean, can go back to the psychology of any boxer—bringing the fighter out of them. Whenever Amir steps outside of his pure boxing mentality, he drops his hands or stay within striking distance of his opposition; thus, he pauses to think and this is when opponents such as Breidis Prescott, Marcos Maidana and Danny Garcia witnessed his lightning speed of punches slow down to a degree, where they were able to squeeze punches through his open, defenseless window.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xAEB_mHU_4s

Every boxing fan who is going to watch this mega-bout will certainly have Amir’s ability to take a power punch on every second of every round on their mind. Amir was knocked out at lightweight, and jr. welterweight. Eagerly, he exceeds up to a catch-weight at 155 pounds, against a puncher who lands flush to the body and the head. This could be the start of a rematch, or a trilogy between these two professional boxers. There is also the possibility for whomever has the win at the end of this bout, earning another huge mega-bout with the undefeated, power punching, IBF, WBA (super), WBC (interim), IBO, world champion, always landing in the top 3 of the pound for pound best active boxers list, Gennady Golovkin.

Another ending could happen as well. Amir could lose, giving up the points of negotiations that favors his brand at the welterweight division and opportunity to go back down to one of the most talented and heavily televised weight-classes in professional boxing that happens to be a doorway to the big Pay-Per-View fights; furthermore, he could miss the chances to fill the void left by the retirements from Floyd Jr. and Manny Pacquiao. A void that is inviting to the next boxing superstar. Welterweight championship boxing bouts with Keith Thurman, Kell Brook or a rematch with Danny Garcia could become thin, as they would dictate the terms against an Amir who has been adamant about his professional career being bigger than theirs–a protest from the past which came from his opinion on why he deserved the glorious Pay-Per-View bouts against Floyd Jr. or Manny Pacquiao for the welterweight crowns, fame and fortunes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPIh4z-Fk64

There we have it. Amir could win, and I would not be surprised if he goes out there and win. However, if he does, it would be a boxing display of smart footwork, sharp punching, and moving out of the way of counter-punches, while applying his boxing I.Q. as an indicator not to slug it out with Canelo, who will be the bigger guy in this mega-bout. Amir tends to only win, when he boxes.

Enjoy the fight or boxing match!