Lucian Bute vs. Badou Jack analysis and prediction

By Boxing News - 04/29/2016 - Comments

Badou Jack and Lucian ButeBy Scott Gilfoid: Former IBF super middleweight champion Lucian Bute (32-3, 25 KOs) has a tough fight on his hands tonight against the younger 32-year-old WBC super middleweight champion Badou Jack (20-1-1, 12 KOs) on Showtime at the DC Armory in Washington, DC.

Bute, 36, is up there in age and clearly is fighting at this point based on his boxing brain and his punching power. Those are the only things he has left. He’s not as fast as he once was, and not as quick on his feet.

The only chance Bute has tonight is to try and KO Jack with one of his big power shots, which he could possibly do. We’ve already seen Jack get knocked out in the past by the hard hitting but very limited Derek Edwards in a fight that Jack was supposed to win. Edwards showed that Jack can be knocked out just like anybody else if he gets hit with a hard enough shot.

Jack is the favorite to win the fight by Bovada. It’s not surprising though because Bute lost his last fight to James DeGale, and he hasn’t beaten a quality opponent in many years. Bute’s last decent win was against Denis Grachev four years ago in 2012, and even in that fight, Bute did not look good. He looked like he was still haunted from his 5th round knockout loss to Carl Froch in May of 2012.

Some boxing fans and members of the media feel that Bute has been rejuvenated due the hard time he gave DeGale last November in losing a closer than expected 12 round decision to him. People also point to Bute’s win over Andrea Di Luisa as an indication that he’s come back. I don’t think so. I think Bute is the same fighter that lost to Froch and to Jean Pascal in 2014. The only difference is he faced weaker opposition in DeGale and Di Luisa since then.

Sorry, I don’t see DeGale and Di Luiasa as being in the same league as Froch and Pascal. Those are different fighters with more talent. Bute is getting another shot because he gave DeGale a hard time. But instead of seeing it as a case of Bute having gotten better, I think it’s a more of a case of DeGale being a mediocre champion and not high quality.

DeGale would have lost to Andre Dirrell if not for the two knockdowns in the 2nd round. Dirrell dominated most of the other fight. That just tells you how limited DeGale is. If an old guy like Bute can almost beat DeGale, then it tells you that the level of the champions in the 168lb division are below what they should be in 2016. Thankfully, we have five champions in the weight class because at least one of them is what I consider to be a good fighter in WBO champion Gilberto Ramirez.

“Bute’s fight against DeGale was one of the best fights last year,” Jack said via ESPN.com. “That’s the only reason he got this shot. He lost, but he looked good. It was a great fight. [Saturday] will be another great fight and another loss for Bute.”

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I scored the Bute vs. DeGale fight a 12 round draw. I don’t think it was the best fight of the year last year, but I do think Bute deserved a draw out of it. I counted six rounds where Bute got the better of DeGale, which means Bute should have been given a draw against the 30-year-old DeGale. I think it was an off night for the three judges.

Honestly, I see the Bute vs. Jack fight as a tossup. Both of these guys are there to be beaten, and it’s impossible for me to pick a winner. Badou should have lost his last fight against George Groves last September. Groves would have won that fight if he didn’t gas out in the last six rounds of the fight. I had Groves winning after six rounds.

His only bad round was the 1st in which he was knocked down. After Groves got back up, he showed some good boxing skills to take control over the fight briefly. Despite winning the fight, Jack looked pretty horrible and not like a world champion. He looked more like a paper champion without the skills to dominate a guy that is basically just a six-round fighter at best.

With all the injuries that have limited Bute’s ability to fight over the last four years, it’s surprising that he made it to the ring for tonight’s fight in one piece. I wouldn’t be surprised if Bute has some kind of injury that he’s taking to the ring with him tonight. If Bute isn’t the same fighter he was last November, then I think it’s probable that he’s got some kind of ache or pain that will be limiting him in the ring against Jack.

For Bute to defeat Jack tonight, he’s going to need to show some courage and fight three minutes of every round, especially in the first half of the fight. Bute gave away his chances of beating DeGale by not fighting hard in the first six rounds.

It wasn’t until Bute was well behind in the fight that he rallied in the second half to come close to beating DeGale. Like I said, I scored the DeGale-Bute fight a draw, but that was only because DeGale was so limited. A prime Bute would have wiped the deck with DeGale in my view.

If Bute wants to win tonight’s fight against Badou, then he’s going to need to go after him the same way that Edwards did to try and take his head off. Badou likes to be the one that does the pressuring, and he frequently looks bigger than his opponents in the ring. Bute needs to go after Jack and look to take him out with a combination of head and body shots.

Bute is a good body puncher, so I think he should focus on what he does best by throwing hard to the body. Jack seems to be able to handle head shots well. We saw how Anthony Dirrell was able to bounce his best power shots off Jack’s head all night long in their fight last year, and Jack took the blows and kept fighting hard. It obviously wasn’t good for Jack to be hit with so many monstrous shots from Dirrell, but he still won the fight.

I’m healthy in this moment. Everything is going well. I had one fight before DeGale, a tune-up fight. Against DeGale I think I looked good and everybody saw I’m very competitive in the high-level fights,” said Bute.

Bute looked good against DeGale at times because he was throwing his power shots, and DeGale hates getting hit hard. When DeGale is pressured hard and hit with big shots, he backs up to the ropes and presents a defensive posture. That style made him vulnerable against Bute, and he was very lucky to have gotten the decision because he fought poorly in the last half of the fight.

Prediction: Lucian Bute by 12 round unanimous decision.

I wish I could give Badou Jack a chance of winning this fight, but he’s still the same fighter that lost to Derek Edwards by a 1st round knockout in 2014.