By Dan Ambrose: Former two division world champion Zab Judah is giving Amir Khan (31-3, 19 KOs) a good chance of beating WBC middleweight champion Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (46-1-1, 32 KOs) in their fight on May 7.
Judah, who was stopped by Khan in 2011, thinks that his speed could be the difference in this fight. Judah doesn’t see Canelo’s size and power advantage being enough for him to win this fight if Khan fights smart an boxes the slower-moving Canelo for 12 rounds.
Where Judah believes that Khan could get in trouble is if he tries to fight toe-to-toe against Canelo after getting nailed by one of his big shots. Khan has a habit of wanting to pay his opponents back by nailing them after he gets hit hard. This has led to Khan getting hurt and even stopped in some of his fights.
“Size and weight don’t mean anything when you’re a great and talented,” Judah said to Hustleboss. “Khan has got to be sharp. But I think the speed of Khan might be a difficult kind of fight for Canelo. Canelo is more of a come forward type; strong, bang out kind of fighter. If Khan uses his boxing skills and don’t get caught up inside. If Khan gets caught up in a bang out, he’s going to go to sleep,” said Judah.
The weight difference between Khan and Canelo probably won’t be that much. Canelo might have a 10 to 20 pound weight advantage, but that’s all. Canelo won’t come into the fight with a 25 to 30 pound advantage. When there’s that much of a weight difference in a middleweight fight, then it’s almost impossible for the lighter fighter to win. But when it’s only 10 to 20 pounds, then it’s doable for sure.
Khan is saying he plans on coming into the fight at 165lbs. This means that if Canelo rehydrates to 185, he’ll only have a 20 pound weigh advantage. That might not be enough for Canelo to win, because he’s not fast of hand and he lacks explosiveness with his punches. Canelo is more of a fighter that lands shots with a thud rather than with an explosion. He needs a stationary target for him to wear down his opponents.
The fight will be fought at a catch-weight of 155lbs. This means that it could be tough on Canelo if he drains down from 185 to 155. He’s going to be weakened. I think Canelo will be strong in the first four rounds, but once the fight goes past the fourth, he’s going to likely be sluggish, slow and tired, because of all the water weight that he put back on in the last 24 hours after making weight. That’s why it’s never a good thing for fighters to be draining down in weight long term. They can get away with it for a while, but eventually, they’re body gives out on them and they wind up slow and tired. I think Canelo is starting to get to that point where his body will begin to betray him unless he gets smart and moves to the full weight of 160lbs for the middleweight division.
See you all back in England on Feb 25th. On the 29th I will have the fight press conference in London, see you all there! #CaneloKhan
— Amir Khan (@amirkingkhan) February 21, 2016
Canelo should probably be fighting at super middleweight rather than in his own catch-weight division at 155. With the amount of weight that Canelo puts back on after he rehydrates, he could arguably be fighting in the 168lb class. Of course, Canelo wouldn’t have the weight advantage over his opponents like he’s been enjoying, and he wouldn’t be able to raid the welterweight division for opponents. It would look bad if Golden Boy Promotions started pulling welterweights for Canelo to fight at super middleweight. That’s a weight class that is three divisions above the welterweight class.
“As far as Canelo, he’s got to apply a lot of pressure,” Judah said. “You have to go in there and look for your shot. You’re going to have to be a hunter in this fight. It’s not going to be the type of fight where it’s going to be a bang out. You’re going to have to hunt the guy [Khan] and try to make the fight happen,” said Judah.
Canelo moves so slowly around the ring that it’s going to be really difficult for him to put the needed pressure on Khan. Canelo moves a lot like Alfredo Angulo. Canelo has faster hands than Angulo, but his feet are about the same. He moves like a slug, in other words. This is going to help Khan because Canelo will not be able to cut off the ring to force the fight the way he needs to.
The only chance that Canelo has is if Khan stops and chooses to trade with him. Khan might do this if the fight starts getting too easy for him the way that his fight with the slower Danny Garcia became really easy back in 2012. Khan paid for being overconfident by getting stopped in the 4th. I think it’s safe to say that Khan learned a big lesson in that loss.
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