By Ross Walker: Disclaimer: Some fighters on this list may be included in match ups in other divisions, if this is the case they will appear in the heavier division’s list.
Terence Crawford vs. Viktor Postol
Postol is coming off a 10th round KO win over Lucas Matthysse as well as being named Freddie Roach’s new “favorite fighter.” Postol was flying under the radar as an undefeated, intelligent and lanky Jr. Welterweight until knocking out Matthysse. This was largely due to his lack of big-name opponents and American exposure. Adding to Postol’s unknown to most fans was his lack of KO victories, this all changed when (surprise, surprise) Roach got his hands on him. Crawford, on the other hand, is becoming well known to casual fans and is already the favorite of most hard-core boxing fans. Crawford may have the most ring intelligence in all of boxing. He knows when to hunt, and he knows when to sit back and analyze his opponents and their reactions to his changing stance and punches. Put that level of ring intelligence with in-human skill and calmness and you have Terence Crawford. This fight does not guarantee fireworks but any fight with Crawford involved has a chance. What this match up lacks in sure-bet action it makes up for with sure-bet skill. With Postol being a counter-punching, long southpaw and Crawford who can stalk and counter-punch and fights out of the orthodox and southpaw stances, makes this fight a toss-up with regards to action level. If this fight were to be made I would have to give the nod to Crawford without hesitation. He is too skilled, too tough and just too damn smart to lose to maybe anyone in and around the weight class.
Chances of match up in 2016: 60% Both these fighters are with HBO and Top Rank but there has been little interest on Postol’s side. Both fighters apparently have other plans for their next fights, better chance of this matchup in 2017.
Lucas Matthysse vs. Ruslan Provodnikov
Did you see their first fight? It was an all-out war just as it was predicted to be. If you didn’t see it, it was a majority decision win for Matthysse. Matthysse’s slicker boxing and smoother combinations beat out the relentless, brawling-style, looping punches of Provodnikov. After beating Provodnikov, Matthysse went on to fight Viktor Postol for the WBC belt. He lost to Postol via 10th round KO taking a straight right to the eye socket.
Matthysse’s heart was questioned when he did not attempt to beat the count after he “felt a pop in my eye.” After losing the war to Matthysse, Provodnikov was back in the ring a little more than six months later. Provodnikov looked good in a 4th round KO of little-known, yet undefeated, Jesus Alvarez Rodriguez. Provodnikov knocked him out in classic “Siberian Rocky” fashion by bullying him into the ropes and dropping him with haymakers. If this matchup were to take place again I would have to go with Provodnikov. I think the battle between the two took more out of Matthysse than Provodnikov. This is surprising because Matthysse far and away got the better of Provodnikov the first time. Provodnikov has also switched trainers and moved to another gym where he is the man and not far down the list as he was at the Wild Card Gym.
Chances of this match up in 2016: 40% It appears as though a different rematch is in the works first: Herrera vs. Provodnikov 2. Provodnikov is a network free agent at this point and fights under Banner Promotions. Matthysse is with Golden Boy and does not have a future bout scheduled at this time.
Jose Benavidez vs. Jessie Vargas / Mauricio Herrera vs. Antonio Orozco / Winner vs. Winner
This would be a 3-fight, 4-person series of match ups between four contenders in the Jr. Welterweight division with the winner of the two fights facing off. Let’s start with Jose Benavidez vs. Jessie Vargas. Benavidez is undefeated in 23 pro bouts with 16 KO’s and is coming off a TKO victory over Jorge Paez jr. Jose looked good in this fight fighting off the ropes as he did against Herrera dropping Paez with a right to the body then ending the fight later on with a short left. Benavidez has been labelled a boxing prodigy and has so far lived up to that expectation. Jessie Vargas was undefeated going into his fight with Timothy Bradley but came out of the fight 26-1. The end of the fight drew a lot of controversy as Vargas rocked Bradley with a right near the end of the fight and as the warning bell sounded the referee jumped in to stop the fight thinking the warning bell was the final bell negating any chance Vargas had of getting the KO. Neither of these fighters are power punchers with Benavidez getting the nod in this category with a 67% KO rate as opposed to Vargas’s 33%. What makes this fight interesting is that Benavidez fights a lot like Floyd Mayweather while Vargas has been trained by Roger Mayweather from a young age. This fight would be a show of skill, speed and footwork. An incredibly hard one to call but if Vargas uses his experience, jabs and cuts the ring off effectively he should take this one.
Chance of match up in 2016: 30% Promoters and trainers don’t usually pit up-and-comers against each other, this fight will almost certainly happen in the future, post 2016.
Mauricio Herrera vs. Antonia Orozco
Although Herrera is coming off a KO win over Hank Lundy, he has lost 4 of his last 8 bouts. At this point in his career Herrera is more of a gate-keeper than a contender. That being said, he is a highly skilled and experienced gatekeeper who represents a tough challenge for anyone in this division. Orozco is a 28 year-old, undefeated boxer-puncher with a KO rate of 65%. He has a bit of a limited arsenal but goes to the body well. Orozco technically won his last fight against Humberto Soto but many people believe Soto was robbed by the judges. This fight has more potential for fireworks out of two match ups with an up and comer facing off against a gatekeeper. I would give the nod in this fight to Orozco. Orozco’s career is trending up right now while Herrera is trending down, Orozco has more to fight for and is the more skilled of the two. If this fight goes to judges the judges will almost certainly side with Orozco and if there is a KO it will probably be Orozco scoring it.
Chances of this match up in 2016: 90% Orozco’s manager, Frank Espinoza, has already indicated this fight may take place “Herrera is a veteran with a really solid track record and I think it would be a really entertaining fight.”
Final: Orozco vs. Vargas
Chances of this match up in 2016: 20% Both fighters are too young right now for this to happen in 2016. Orozco beat Vargas in the amateurs which might give both fighters reason to go again. Orozco will have confidence in taking this fight and Vargas will want redemption.
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