By Dan Ambrose: Earlier this week, the World Boxing Council ruled that WBC middleweight champion Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (46-1-1, 32 KOs) can take a voluntary defense before facing his #1 WBC mandatory challenger Gennady “GGG” Golovkin (34-0, 31 KOs) in the second half of 2016 as part of a mandatory defense.
The delay in the title defense by Canelo is driven in part by the desire to let his fight against Golovkin marinate so that it can be bigger than it would be if it were to take place next. Golovkin’s trainer Abel Sanchez understands why Canelo and his promoters at Golden Boy Promotions want the Canelo-Golovkin fight to marinate.
Nevertheless, Sanchez does not thing it helps Canelo to wait Golovkin out, because he feels that it’s an easy fight for Golovkin. Indeed, Sanchez doesn’t think the 25-year-old Canelo will make it even to the 9th round against Golovkin.
“Okay, I understand they [Alvarez’s team] want to (build up) the fight. Mayweather-Pacquiao was worth $30m five years ago and now it costs hundreds of millions,” Sanchez said to skysports.com. “That part is fine, but athletically I’m positive that Canelo won’t last nine rounds with Golovkin – whether it happens in May, September 2016 or 2020.”
It worked for Floyd Mayweather Jr. to let his fight against Manny Pacquiao marinate five years before taking the fight. Not only did the match-up make a lot more money than it would have if they faced each other in 2010, it also helped Mayweather because Pacquiao was pretty worn down by the time they did fight. Mayweather was able to beat the 36-year-old Pacquiao easily. Had they faced each other in 2010, when Pacquiao was at the top of his game, Mayweather would have had to face a much more energetic and younger 31-year-old Pacquiao. The outcome might have been have been different.
Right now, Canelo supposedly will be fighting Golovkin next year in September 2016, but if Canelo and Golden Boy drag their feet to keep the fight from taking place at that time, then don’t be surprised if the Canelo-Golovkin fight is left to marinate for another 4 to 5 years to make it bigger. By then, Golovkin will be 37 or 38, and likely not the fighter he is today. The money might be bigger if he’s able to stay on top of the sport during that time frame. But the more important thing for Golden Boy Promotions and their CEO Oscar De La Hoya is that their golden goose Canelo isn’t beaten in the near future.
Just looking forward to getting in the ring and doing what I do best #allthebelts #whosnext
— Gennady Golovkin (@GGGBoxing) December 14, 2015
If Canelo can be matched carefully to keep him away from guys like Golovkin until it’s time to face him five years from now, then Canelo stands a much better chance of beating Golovkin at that point compared to now. In five years, Canelo will only be 30-years-old and still in his prime. At 38, Golovkin will likely have slipped a couple of notches in terms of his talent. His punching power might still be there, but his reflexes could be slowed enough for Canelo to beat him.
Hopefully the Canelo vs. Golovkin fight does take place next year in 2016, while Golovkin is still in his prime. But I have a feeling that if Golovkin and his promoters disagree with any request that Canelo and Golden Boy ask of him in the negotiations, I see them choosing to pull out of the negotiations and going in another direction.
At that point, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Golovkin and K2 put on ‘ignore’ by Golden Boy for the next five years. That’s why I think Golovkin is going to need to agree to pretty much whatever Canelo and Golden Boy ask in the negotiations next year, because if they don’t, they may find Canelo walking away for a long, long time. The last thing that Golovkin needs is to find himself in the same boat at super bantamweight Guillermo Rigondeaux, a fighter that the top guys in the 122lb division arguably want nothing to do with because he’s just too good right now. Rigondeaux will likely have a stampede of fighters that are interested in facing him once he ages to the point where he’s vulnerable and no longer the fighter he is today.
“So if he’s a middleweight champ that fight would be at the middleweight limit,” Golovkin said on his Twitter about his desire to fight Canelo at the middleweight limit at 160 without a catch-weight.
I think it’s almost academic that Golovkin will need to agree to Canelo’s 155lb catch-weight handicap if he wants the fight with him. If Golovkin says no to that, I think that will give Canelo and Golden Boy the excuse they needed to walk away from the negotiations for the next five years until Golovkin is old enough to beat.
What would be really sad is if the WBC allows Canelo to keep his WBC middleweight title if he pulls out of negotiations with Golovkin next May if/when he fails to agree to Canelo’s 155lb catch-weight. If that happens, then it means that the WBC is going to allow Canelo to use catch-weights for all of his title defenses, whether voluntary or mandatory defenses.
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