Cotto-Canelo: Finally, a real 50/50 fight!

By Bob Smith - 11/14/2015 - Comments

1-cotto-canelo-nyc (6)By Bob Smith: Like many other fans, I view the Miguel Cotto vs. Saul “Canelo” Alvarez fight as the true pay-per-view attraction of the year, for it is between equally matched competitors who both take risks and have crowd pleasing styles and large fan bases.

Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs Manny Pacquiao would have been more competitive in 2009-2010, and perhaps Pacquaio may have won, but as of 2015 spring, Mayweather was simply far too dominant; by contrast, Pacquaio had not had a KO in years, and punchers fade more quickly than boxers from the elite ranks.

In any case, let’s examine the strong arguments that both sides have. Earlier, I favored Cotto, but now, I see more clearly the arguments for Canelo winning, though I am not yet completely persuaded this will be the case. In sum, this fight is a true toss up between two of the top dozen or so fighters in the world.

The Pro-Canelo camp

There is strong support from a wide variety of quarters that Canelo will end up on top, and it cannot be dismissed. First off, the oddsmakers favor Canelo as a slight favorite, perhaps with Canelo at – 300 and Cotto at +235. In other words, to win $100, one must but $300 on a Canelo victory; by contrast, a $100 bet for Cotto will yield $235. In other words, the oddsmakers are currently giving Canelo roughly a 66% chance of winning.

Also, some of the most skilled commentators and analysts in boxing favor Canelo. For example, Jeff Mayweather speaks for most of the Mayweather Boxing Club when they highlight the youth and power and increasing skill of Canelo and also discount the victories of Cotto as a marketing mirage (an injured Martinez, a 2nd rate Rodriguez, and a fading former champion in Daniel Geale). Paulie Malignaggi favors Canelo because he says both fighters fight similar styles of fights, but Canelo is younger, stronger, bigger, and less damaged by wars. Moreover, the vast majority of Mexican boxers and trainers favor Canelo as well, in large part due to his youth and power, and this includes Robert Garcia and his camp and fighters there and also Nacho Beristain.

YouTube video

I think that the devastation of Canelo’s recent opponents is also strong evidence of the prospects of Canelo in this fight. While I personally scored the bout of Canelo vs. Erislandy Lara as a draw, and it was much closer than many people and one judge thought it would be, he has demolished his opposition since then. Yes, Alfredo Angulo “looked weak” but it could well have been because of the outstanding combinations of Canelo. Yes, Kirkland was very out of shape before the fight and did not have Anne Wolfe, but Canelo handed James Kirkland his first “real” KO loss, and I doubt a peak Kirkland would last more than 8 rounds with Canelo in the best of conditions.

In other words, no one beats Canelo at his game, or at least no one named Cotto does (I’m ignoring Gennady “GGG” Golovkin for this article and focusing on the fight). The only ones who seem to have a chance at besting Canelo are bicycle riders and Cotto, though a skilled boxer, is certainly not this – when they do exchange flurries, and they will do this, it is undoubtedly true that Canelo will be more able to hurt Cotto than the reverse.

YouTube video

The Pro-Cotto Camp

While Cotto does not have the endorsement of many elite trainers and commentators (other than his own) in his fight, he does have the respect of some of the most elite boxers and former boxers in the support, who slightly favor him. For instance, Floyd Mayweather Jr. states that Canelo “is not a better boxer” than Cotto, and that Cotto took more chances with him (implying a greater degree of success also) and that Cotto was more adaptable. While he did not explicitly favor Cotto in the fight, it cannot also be said that he thinks it will be an easy Canelo victory.

Shane Mosley has a similar take on Cotto, that because of his experience and adaptability and intelligence he should be a slight favorite. Timothy Bradley favors Cotto; and when asked about who will win, both Sergio Martinez and Austin Trout say that “the most intelligent fighter will win” subtly implying that unless Canelo ups his game, Cotto will be able to outbox him and claim the victory.

Of course, most Puerto Ricans boxers and trainers, including the loud mouthed Angel Garcia, favor Cotto, with the exception of the jealous Felix Trinidad.

YouTube video

My Opinion

While still not completely undecided, I have changed my mind and currently favor Canelo to win by late stoppage, say in rounds 8-11. Cotto is a very good fighter and will have his moments, but I recall two “even” fights that favored the younger and stronger fighter. Sergey Kovalev totally dominated Bernard Hopkins; Cotto dominated an injured Sergio Martinez; and while Santa Cruz and Mares was an excellent fight and Mares has his moments, he was overmatched from the beginning and despite fighting bravely did not have the capacity to get a victory in that fight.

I see Cotto vs Canelo more as a Mares vs. Santa Cruz type of fight. Cotto will come off strong and have his moments, but in the middle rounds, far from Canelo fading, his cast iron chin and the inability of Cotto to seriously hurt him will build his confidence and give him the momentum he needs to force Cotto to take chances. Later, a tired Cotto will make mistakes, Canelo will capitalize on them, in part due to his consistent body work, and KO Cotto late in the fight.

The major difference for me here is size and chin. Cotto has been knocked down and knocked out before, Canelo has never been knocked down or even seriously hurt. Cotto will not be the first person to do this. On the contrary, a desperate and overly aggressive Cotto, not content to lose a points decision, will likely suffer a KO/TKO loss at the hands of Canelo.

On the other hand, if Canelo has not sufficiently matured, it is quite possible for Cotto to control range, and both outbox and also hurt (not seriously, but enough to make him hesitant to throw punches) Canelo.  In this outcome, the more intelligent Cotto will win, and this is the possibility claimed by Mosley and Bradley and myself in earlier articles, and alluded to by Trout and Martinez.  However, I just think that Canelo has matured enough as a fighter and as a man that this possibility is not nearly the threat that it was a year or two ago.

This is my opinion. What is yours/ I look forward to reading the comments.



Comments are closed.