Canelo will beat Cotto, says Judah

By Boxing News - 09/02/2015 - Comments

Image: Canelo will beat Cotto, says JudahBy Dan Ambrose: Boxing great Zab Judah says he’s leaning in the direction of the 25-year-old Mexican star Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (45-1-1, 32 KOs) to top WBC middleweight champion Miguel Cotto (40-4, 33 KOs) on November 21st and take his title in their match-up on HBO pay-per-view.

Judah has fought the 34-year-old Cotto in the past in losing by an 11th round knockout defeat in June 2007, so he’s well versed in what kind of game he has. Judah thinks that Canelo’s superior size, youth and punching power will be the telling factors in him getting a win over Cotto.

However, Judah does feel that Cotto has improved recently with him training with Freddie Roach, so that’s there’s an area of doubt in this fight. Logically, a fighter as young, strong and as big as Canelo should be able to beat an old lion like Cotto, but there’s a difference in ring IQ and experience that Canelo will need to make up in order for him to get a win Cotto.

“It’s going to be a good fight,” Judah told HustleBoss.com. “I think Cotto can come in with a good game plan. But Canelo’s a bigger, stronger guy. A much younger guy. I don’t know, but if I had to put my money on it, I’m leaning towards Canelo Alvarez.”

Canelo was also the bigger, younger and stronger fighter in his fight against Floyd Mayweather Jr. two years ago, and his size, youth and these factors didn’t help Canelo at all. Mayweather was able to immediately nullify Pacquiao’s size and power by fighting defensively, throwing mostly single shots, and not letting Canelo back him up against the ropes. In the center of the ring, Canelo was nearly helpless against Mayweather, because he couldn’t land his big shots.

The only time Canelo had any success at all in the fight was when Mayweather purposefully backed up against the ropes and fought Canelo from that vantage point. Mayweather was smart enough to realize that he couldn’t stay on the ropes for any time, so he would quickly move away from the ropes and get back to the center of the ring where he was able to clown Canelo, and make him look really bad.

“I don’t know,” said Judah. “Me and Freddie think on two different terms. Not to say anything bad about Freddie. I know Miguel Cotto, himself as a fighter, he’s going to come in there and be in great shape. He knows he has to be in great condition and he’s going to come in there and fight.”

Canelo is pretty vulnerable to a jab and movement. I haven’t seen anything from his recent fights that would lead me to believe that he’s improved in those areas. He’s still basically the same fighter that lost to Mayweather and struggled to beat Erislandy Lara and Austin Trout. Those guys both could have beaten Canelo if they were to focus on their jabs and if they had stood in the pocket more. In the case of Trout, I think he would have needed a knockout to get the win over Canelo at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas, in their fight in 2013.

The judges that were assigned to that fight were just giving Canelo rounds based on him landing the harder shots rather than the more numerous ones. Trout was outworking Canelo by a huge margin, but the judges were steadily giving Canelo the rounds based on him landing a few solid shots each round. Trout would have needed to put Canelo on the canvas and keep him there if he wanted a victory in that fight. The huge crowd was screaming and cheering for Canelo all night long, and it was pretty much a hopeless situation for Trout.

I don’t agree with Judah’s prediction of a Canelo win. I think Cotto has a very good chance in this fight. He’s got a much better jab than Canelo, and he moves well. All Cotto has to do is to keep firing out his jab, move every so often, and nail Canelo with left hooks when he strays too close to him. If Cotto can make sure he moves every so often and not let Canelo trap him into fire fights, he wins this fight by a fairly comfortable 12 round decision or possibly even a knockout. But if Cotto stays put and fights a stationary battle, then Canelo will use his 15-20 pound weight advantage to squash him and get a knockout.



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