By Reynaldo Sanchez: After WBC middleweight champion Miguel Angel Cotto dismantled Daniel Geale in 4th rounds last Saturday on June 6, all sources point to a match where the Puerto Rican, most likely will face the Mexican Saul “Canelo” Alvarez. Speculations are already in place in which of them should be the “A” side of the event and of course, who should receive the largest part of the cake in “monetary terms”.
This fight has features that go beyond boxing and who could be the winner. First, we have the fact that a fighter such as Canelo Alvarez, who isn’t ranked in the WBC middleweight rankings will be disputing against the reigning champion (Cotto). Secondly, we have the weight or divisional limit of 160 pounds; it will be something that both teams must contemplate.
Cotto has said in several times that he will defend his middleweight title only in catchweight terms. We already know the catchweight terms from Cotto are coming since his fight against Sergio Martinez last year. The monetary agreements will be the most critical part in all negotiations. Canelo Alvarez and his team believe that he is in a better position than Cotto in terms of sales and advertising. However, Cotto and his team believe that only the name of the Puerto Rican fighter and his legacy is enough to be the most important part of the promotion, and that means that the money should go to the same route.
Now on what might happen in the fight. We must consider several factors like it or not, it will be very important to understand that this match it might go to the distance. The venue of this fight will tell us which way should go in an eventual decision that would lean on the cards. Having this event in NY isn’t the same to make this fight by example in Texas or Las Vegas.
On the boxing subject, both are pretty good. Canelo destroyed Kirkland with a stunning knockout in three rounds, and Cotto destroyed Geale in 4th rounds, also in an impressive way. In terms of quality, we feel that Cotto holds a slight margin over Canelo. Miguel “Junito” Cotto was quick compared to a dull Geale and seems better equipped technically, in addition to his experience in world title fights.
On the Mexican side of the equation, the size of Alvarez and his strength, take precedence over Cotto’s technique. Saul Alvarez’ team said that hadn’t thought about enjoying the middleweight division (meaning no fighting Golovkin) in fact they announced that a few days ago. But, because Cotto isn’t a natural middleweight, that opens the door for two fighters that are super welters, fighting for the WBC title of the 160 pounds.
To recap, if the fight takes place below the maximum weight of 160 pounds. We would have to observe that limit carefully and from there, we will have better conclusions to make a better prediction, Cotto weighed less than 154 pounds the day before the fight against Geale, and that showed us that Roach bet on the speed as we saw last Saturday.
But it was against a fighter with less strength than Canelo. By styles, it seems that to give weight advantage to Canelo Alvarez will not be a good option. Alvarez is a more aggressive fighter, which would force the fight inside seeking to impose his physical benefits by closing the exits to Cotto. This makes us think that Cotto’s team will try to take the fight to the minimum weight allowed between 154.1 and 160 pounds, to once again be the faster fighter in the ring.
It is difficult now for us to define ourselves who will be the winner of this match. Cotto and Alvarez believe they should be fighting in different divisions, Cotto in one division down 154 and the other ‘’Canelo’’ above at 160 division, but this is what you get. We must assume that the weight limit will once again be the cornerstone of a possible outcome. We really believe that it will be a very good and close fight, in which an experienced and skilled fighter like Cotto, faces a stronger and more aggressive opponent as Canelo, (by the way something that Cotto has done in other occasions).
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