Is Canelo ready for Golovkin?

By Bob Smith - 05/10/2015 - Comments

Canelo Alvarez v James Kirkland(Photo Credit:Ed Mulholland/Golden Boy/Golden Boy via Getty Images) By Bob Smith: Yesterday evening Saul “Canelo” Alvarez did have a major victory over James Kirkland. Cynics and critics might say that he had too lose too much weight; that he had ring rust; that he is not the fighter that he used to be; and that without Ann Wolfe he was destined to lose.

While they may be partly right in these claims, a lot of the credit has to be given to Canelo, who showed poise, skill, hand speed, combinations, and above all excellent defense in his 3rd round KO victory over Kirkland. I don’t think a 100% Kirkland with his former trainer Ann Wolfe in his corner would have fared much better.

I must admit I was a Canelo skeptic earlier – while his earlier fight resume was quite padded, this was the experience that he needed to get to world class level – as with Wilder, crushing victories over weak opposition do not necessarily mean that a fighter cannot compete at the highest level.

Canelo seeks out the most difficult challenges and finds a way to win. With the exception of the Floyd Mayweather Jr. fight (and who can beat Mayweather?) he has taken on and beaten the toughest opposition presented in his division. Though I thought that Trout did enough to edge out the victory against Canelo, in truth, it could have gone either way. The same thing is true to a slightly lesser extent with Lara – in my view the bout should have been a draw, but I could tolerate a narrow Canelo victory. And he handily defeated both of the rough and tumble contenders Angulo and Kirkland.

But does all of this mean he is ready for GGG? Right now, he is the #2 junior middleweight in the world, and when Floyd retires he will be the #1 junior middleweight. However, he has quite a ways to go to get a unified title at 154; by contrast, GGG has no real competition at middleweight, that is, if the fighter is willing to get into the ring with him.

If Canelo and GGG were to fight today at 154, it would be a highly competitive fight. While GGG does have more power, at the same time, Canelo has both excellent defense and an excellent chin. Moreover, he also has superior hand speed, better punching combinations, and is a more versatile boxer-puncher. GGG has struggled at times with those with effective hand speed and a good jab, like Adama. At middleweight, the advantage has to go to GGG; however, a fight at 154 or 155 would be quite competitive and could go either way, depending on how GGG adjusts to the weight and how his power carries over.

However, for now, likely the best course for Canelo, regardless of whether or not he faces or defeats Cotto in the fall, is to attempt to unify the 154 pound division before moving up. This task, which will likely take 2-3 years, will put him in a position to challenge GGG when he is on the downhill, or maybe has moved up to 168. While I do believe that Canelo would fight GGG even in the fall at a catch weight, I don’t think he is fully ready and both his confidence and mystique would suffer in the inevitable loss.

So, for me, the likely and best course of action is for Canelo (or, rather his managers) to “pull a Mayweather” and wait until GGG has either permanently moved up to 168, suffered a loss, or is clearly past his peak. Canelo in his mid-20s can certainly out wait GGG, and Canelo would be the A-side and dictate the terms if they ever fought.

In sum, then, hopefully De La Hoya and his managers will persuade him to try to unify the 154 pound belts – which he can do, but is easier said than done – before taking on GGG. If he faces GGG at 160 from now and for the next few years, he will almost certainly lose, and even at 154-160, it is a high risk low reward fight that is very dangerous for him economically and physically. We will see what happens, but I suspect that De La Hoya will have the cunning and pull to suggest the best course of action.

Meanwhile, GGG, should become the undefeated, undisputed middle weight champion soon.



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