By Chris Williams: HBO analyst and former four division world champion Roy Jones Jr. sees Floyd Mayweather Jr in a tough situation against the Philippines’ Manny Pacquiao in their upcoming bout next month on May 2nd. Jones Jr thinks Mayweather will need a knockout for him to get the victory.
Jones doesn’t think he can win a decision against Pacquiao. Jones doesn’t say why he doesn’t think Mayweather can win a decision, but it leaves one to think back about the first three fights between Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez.
Many boxing fans felt that Marquez did more than enough to deserve victories in the first three fights, and yet the judges repeatedly gave the victories to Pacquiao. It wasn’t until Marquez made up his mind that he was going to knock Pacquiao out that he was finally able to take the judges out of the equation and get a victory.
“You don’t get Mayweather to engage,” Jones said via ESPN. “Pacquiao’s plan should be to outwork Mayweather and outpoint. He’s not going to be able to force Mayweather to engage. He can do what he wants to do and try, but he can’t force a defensive fighter who’s that skilled and defensive. You can’t make him engage. I think Floyd will have to knockout Pacquiao to win. If there’s a decision, I think Pacquiao wins the decision,” Jones said.
Jones thinks Pacquiao will need to continually move to his right for him to take away Mayweather’s right hand in the fight, and that’s what he expects Pacquiao to do. In Jones’ view, Mayweather will leave himself open to getting hit by Pacquiao’s left hands each time he turns to his left to stay in front of Pacquiao. Jones doesn’t say what will happen if Pacquiao’s left hooks keep missing the target due to his lack of reach and Mayweather’s tendency to lean backwards to avoid them.
I don’t see the judges giving the fight to Pacquiao if he hasn’t earned it. There’s too much risk to their career if they mess up and give Pacquiao the fight if he gets totally dominated by Mayweather. If Pacquiao is given the decision, he’s going to need to actually earn it.
I don’t think there’s going to be any controversial decisions given to Pacquiao like there was in his first three fights with Marquez. I had Pacquiao losing those three fights. I’m not sure what the judges were thinking, but I believe he would have lost those fights if there was better judging being done. They were all clear wins for Marquez in my view.
It’s going to be next to impossible for Pacquiao to out-box Mayweather. I don’t know what Jones is thinking of in picking Pacquiao to win this fight, but I think he’s overlooking his lack of reach and his habit of leaving himself wide open each time he bum rushes his opponents.
Mayweather has a six inch reach advantage over Pacquiao. That means it’s going to be very, very hard for Pacquiao to land anything at all against Mayweather. Even if Pacquiao rushes him in a sloppy manner. I can’t see Pacquiao landing anything, because Mayweather will calmly move out of his path and nail him with a shot to the head while he’s on the move.
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