By Dan Ambrose: Light welterweight Lucas Matthysse (36-3, 34 KOs) will be facing former WBO 140lb champ Ruslan Provodnikov (24-3, 17 KOs) tonight in a 12 round bout on HBO Championship Boxing from the Turning Stone Resort & Casino, in Verona, New York, USA. This is an important fight for both guy as they’re looking to get title shots, albeit against different fighters.

Matthysse is still trying to build himself back after a loss to Danny Garcia in 2013. Matthysse has won his last two fights against John Molina Jr. and Roberto Ortiz, and looked good. Provodnikov, 31, was beaten by Chris Algieri in June of 2014. Provodnikov rebounded from that loss to defeat 40-year-old Jose Luis Castillo last November in Moscow, Russia.

A lot of boxing fans wondered by Provodnikov was matched against someone as old and no longer relevant like Castillo. Only Provodnikov’s handlers know the answer to that question. It wasn’t the most ideal match-up for a fighter pushing 32 in his career. Provodnikov needs to be taking quality opponents instead of being matched against guys that are over-the-hill by many years.

Matthysse will definitely have the advantage in tonight’s fight against Provodnikov, because he can both box and slug. A lot of boxing aren’t aware of the fact that Matthysse has excellent boxing skills. If you watched his fight against Molina Jr. last year in April, Matthysse was forced to make some adjustments in the fight after getting knocked down twice by Molina. Matthysse used his boxing skills to box from the outside and avoid Molina’s left hooks. Matthysse eventually knocked Molina out in the 11th round.

Provodnikov started out fighting on ESPN in the United States and he’s worked his way up to HBO. He’s looked good off and on in fights, but he’s still pretty much the same crude slugger that he was years ago when he was fighting on HBO. Only recently he stepped it up against better opposition in fights against Mike Alvarado, Tim Bradley, and Chris Algieri.

“My strategy against him will be to make sure to box and keep moving, that is why sparring has been really important in my training,” Matthysse said via skysports.com. “Fans can expect one of the greatest fights in the division. I know I am ready to win this fight and fans should expect a victory.”

Provodnikov lost to Algieri, and his win over the shell of Alvarado was kind of meaningless given how bad Alvarado looked in that fight. Provodnikov has also been beaten by Mauricio Herrera, and he has a questionable win over DeMarcus Corley in a fight that Provodnikov appeared to lose. Provodnikov doesn’t look like he’s changed any since the days he was fighting on ESPN. He’s just a little older and shopworn.

If Provodnikov wins this fight then the chances are excellent he’ll fight the winner of tonight’s fight between Thomas Dulorme and Terence Crawford. If Matthysse wins the fight tonight, it’s unclear whether he’ll face the Top Rank promoted Crawford. Matthysse is promoted by Golden Boy Promotions, and that makes it questionable whether he’ll fight Crawford. I’m sure Crawford’s promoter Bob Arum would love that fight because it would give Crawford a quality name to put on his resume instead of the more obscure guys that he’s been facing, but I still think it’s doubtful that Golden Boy will bother matching Matthysse up with Crawford.

Matthysse will have a huge advantage over Provodnikov tonight due to Matthysse having the ability to slug as well as box. Provodnikov can only slug, and he leaves himself wide open for counters. With Matthysse he’s able to box if things don’t go well with his punching, and that should give him a big advantage over Provodnikov. That’s bad news for Provodnikov if he loses the fight tonight because if he keeps winning he might get a nice payday fight against Manny Pacquiao one of these days. He blew his chance last year when he was beaten by Algieri. Instead of Provodnikov getting the title shot it wound up being Algieri in a fight that was horribly one-sided with Pacquiao easily beating Algieri.
Prediction: Matthysse by lopsided 12 round unanimous decision over Provodnikov.

“I am glad Lucas and team are so sure of themselves because I am positive that once I am in the ring my actions will speak for themselves,” Provodnikov said about Matthysse at the final press conference. “I am here to win and I will do everything to win this fight. No one can stop my will, my will, will not be broken.”