By Spencer Brown: The era-defining showdown on May 2 between Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao has transcended the sport, and every observer – from the most seasoned expert to the casual armchair pundit – has an opinion on what will unfold next month.
Arguably the greatest question to be answered is whether Father Time is finally catching up with Floyd Mayweather Jr.
He delayed the inevitable slide through his freakish, peerless dedication and discipline, but last year – in his two bouts against the rugged Argentine Marcos Maidana – there were finally signs that his reflexes are slowing.
At the end of round three in the rematch, Mayweather’s patented ‘pull counter right-hand’ was itself countered by Maidana, and he was shaken to his boots.
He was also caught occasionally by Maidana’s stiff jabs and wild right hands, and though he still cruised to a comfortable and classy win, it was clear that in 2014 the first little signs of decline were emerging.
Of course he has been caught by good shots before (name me a fighter that hasn’t) at the hands of DeMarcus Corley, Zab Judah and Shane Mosley, but despite largely dominating the Maidana rematch, it was clear that the Floyd Mayweather Jr. of 2014 is not the Floyd Mayweather Jr. of 2009 (or even of 2013, when he looked untouchable against Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez).
This should not be surprising considering he is now 38 years old (and nor should it be construed as criticism; it is testament to his work ethic and athleticism that he has maintained his razor-sharpness for so long) but the great question now is how steep, and how rapid, the decline will be.
The second layer to that question is whether Pacquiao – himself many years past his fearsome best – has the tools to capitalize on a slightly slower Mayweather.
Trainer Virgil Hunter recently compared the blockbuster showdown to Ali-Frazier III, forever known as the ‘Thriller in Manila’. “They [Ali and Frazier] were both supposed to be past it at that point, but name me one heavyweight fight that was better,” he said.
Mayweather’s age arguably does, from a neutral perspective, make the fight even more intriguing, and if he emerges victorious it will be the shining, gleaming jewel on the crown of his career.
His claim to be the ‘best ever’ is a lot weightier than his many critics believe; of course Ali is rightly known as ‘The Greatest’ and his impact outside the ring will never be matched, and Sugar Ray Robinson’s dazzling exploits will probably never be equaled.
But on the other hand Mayweather’s dominance and defensive prowess through multiple weight classes in the last two decades is truly unprecedented; his record will stand the test of time and (much like Ali) he will probably only be fully appreciated when he is long retired.
Rightly or wrongly, however, he will forever be defined by his performance on May 2.
He is still likely to prove too smart, too accurate and too elusive for Pacquiao, but many people are smelling blood; the odds on a Pacquiao win are shortening each week.
Floyd Mayweather has devoted his life to the sport of boxing, and thus far his efforts have been handsomely rewarded.
He is a supremely-skilled virtuoso, and his dominance of this era is likely to be soundly consolidated next month. Don’t be surprised if he rolls back the years and out-boxes Pacquiao with panache.
However, at 38 years old, he is neither invincible nor immortal.
For this reason as much as any other, the eyes of the world will be trained on Las Vegas on May 2.
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