A frenetic Pacquiao pace will prevent Mayweather from setting and re-setting

By Boxing News - 04/27/2015 - Comments

floyd0983By Sizzle JKD: Much has been made of Manny Pacquiao’s “secret weapon” and his behind-closed-doors strategy for next week’s fight against Floyd Mayweather Jr.

Many people think Pacquiao will simply do what he’s been doing his entire career, which is to hop in and out, hoping to land multiple punch combinations while trying to get out of the way of Mayweather’s counterattack.

While this is largely true, a fighter of Mayweather’s caliber and ring savvy will certainly require a few tweaks and adjustments to the regular routine. I’ll divulge the “secret weapon” a little bit later. But first, let’s begin with Mayweather’s strategy and what to expect from Floyd, who’s looking a lot like The Incredible Hulk these days.

Chopping wood, swimming laps like a dolphin, and doing cryotherapy sessions all have their benefits in building and maintaining strength. It’s clear that Floyd is trying to create more power in his punches and it won’t surprise me one bit if he comes out aggressive and presses the action once the fight begins.

He will still be calculating and methodical, but with Floyd’s newfound confidence in his biceps, expect Mayweather to try and walk Pacquiao down from the onset. Pacquiao, meanwhile, will surely retaliate with punches in bunches, but I can see Mayweather attempting to pull a “Marquez” and counter Pacquiao’s punches with combinations of his own and rely on his right hand to deliver a knockout blow. Every time Manny tries to come in with a shot or a straight left, Floyd will immediately counter with a check hook with either hand and follow it up with a straight right.

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An orthodox fighter’s best counter to a southpaw is the 3-2 combination (left hook, right cross). Conversely, Pacquiao’s most effective counter to Floyd’s counter would be a 2-4 combination (left cross, right hook) while moving to his right (Floyd’s left).

Forget the ill-conceived notion conjured up by fairweather fans that Manny is “easy to hit.” I’m 100% sure Floyd does not believe this. Instead, Floyd’s game plan will be to see how well Manny fights off his back foot. In the past, the Mayweathers have alluded to Manny’s ability, or lack thereof, in fighting while moving backwards, and Floyd will definitely be putting Manny to the test in this category.

Not to worry through, Pacquiao fans. Manny won’t need to fight while moving backwards because Manny has the footwork and footspeed to move laterally and side-to-side in a blink of an eye. And this will be the key to the entire Pacquiao game plan – lateral and constant movement.

Pacquiao’s strategy is simple. He knows he can maintain his combinations as long as he can continually create openings to throw his combinations. The key isn’t so much as to land a high percentage of his punches, but rather to disrupt Mayweather’s rhythm by creating a frenzied pace that will allow Pacquiao to find gaps so he can seek and destroy.

The key to beating Mayweather is to constantly be on the offensive and constantly move in and out, side to side, in and out again, and side to side again for all three minutes of each round while throwing at least 70-80 punches per round. Even if Pacquiao connects on only 30% of these punches, he would still land 23-27 punches on Floyd, which would be about 276-285 total shots landed if the fight goes the entire 12 rounds. Sustaining this type of pace will be enough to not only disrupt Floyd’s timing but most importantly, prevent Floyd from doing what he likes to do best – set and re-set.

Being able to re-set after a skirmish or after a clinch is what Floyd looks to do in order to gain an advantage because it puts him back in his rhythm, his comfort zone. And when Floyd is allowed to keep his rhythm, this, in turn, lets him control distance and pace, which are the primary keys to his success. Pacquiao must take this away. And the only way to do this is to bring a non-stop and unpredictably frenzied pace that is so intense Floyd doesn’t even have time to think and make an adjustment.

Floyd is such a conventional thinking fighter and so fundamentally sound, and because of his perfection, the only way to counter this type of style is to be the complete opposite; to the point where your style has to seem erratic, and yes, reckless. The unconventionality that Pacquiao brings to the table is actually the key to success against Floyd. Why? Because this type of fighting has absolutely no rhythm to it. And when Floyd cannot figure out Pacquiao’s rhythm, all conventionality is thrown out the window.

In order for Manny to do this, he has to be in tremendous shape and physical condition. And according to all accounts, Pacquiao is more than ready to deliver the game plan and execute to perfection. Pacquiao is going to bring so much frenetic movement and move at such a random pace, even looking off-balanced at times, that it’s going to give Mayweather fits.

Pacquiao strength and conditioning coach Justin Fortune believes Pacquiao is in the best shape of his career and is primed to hand Mayweather’s first loss.

“He [Pacquiao] is much more focused, much more intense,” Fortune told Inquirer.net after yesterday’s sparring session. “The pressure he puts on an opponent is crazy.”
Fortune added, “Mayweather can’t last 12 rounds at Manny’s pace because Pacquiao’s pace is so intense. From the ninth to the 12th round, Manny will destroy him if he doesn’t knock him out earlier.”

Clearly, Pacquiao’s camp has been extremely confident about their superstar and believe Pacquiao will attack Mayweather from all angles without any sort of letup.
As for Mayweather’s vaunted defensive mastery and his shoulder roll?

“We’re not even concerned with that,” Pacquiao said in his native Tagalog while speaking with spin.ph yesterday. “If the shoulder roll scores points, then we’d be worried. In boxing, it’s punches that scores points.”

“We’ve already studied that [the philly shell],” remarked the Filipino pugilist. “Just a left and a right is all that’s needed.”

Indeed, Pacquiao was hinting that a combination which includes a powerful hook and a devastating cross would topple Mayweather’s defense. This is just a small part of the Pacquiao game plan. The key will be to maintain a frenetic and furious pace that’s reminiscent of a young Mike Tyson, who was one of the best at cutting off the ring against bigger opponents.

The fighters that Mayweather was most able to use his defensive style on all tried to smother him – De La Hoya, Hatton, Maidana, Castillo, Cotto, etc. Meanwhile, Pacquiao is an in and out fighter who punches in bunches and utilizes angles like no other fighter. Pacquiao doesn’t just swarm you, he surrounds you from all directions, something I don’t believe Mayweather is used to. So if you think Pacquiao will come in straight ahead and be a sitting target for Mayweather like Maidana and Hatton were, you’re in for a big surprise next Saturday.

There is an analogy to that of the tank battles in WWII that I’d like to use in order to paint a picture as to what will happen come next Saturday.

During the war, the German tiger tank was the most feared piece of machinery on the ground. It was the most technologically advanced tank at the time with thicker armor and a bigger gun. It also employed a sloping armor that, when hit by a shell, it would simply deflect upward rather than pierce the tank.

But by the end of the war, the Tiger tank was decimated by the modestly built American Sherman tank – a much smaller tank with thin armor plating and a smaller gun. It was due to the sheer numbers of Sherman tanks that proved to be the undoing of the far more superior Tiger. The American war machine was able to produce thousands more Shermans than Germany could manufacture Tiger tanks.
On the battlefield, a typical engagement would be one Tiger versus four or five Shermans. As the Tiger would take out two or three Shermans with ease, another Sherman was already in a flanking maneuver to the Tiger’s rear where the armor was thinner. As the Tiger would rotate its turret, the lone Sherman was already in perfect position to the rear of the Tiger and fire the killing blow.

Manny Pacquiao is a fighter that “throws punches in bunches”, and constantly moves in all directions at such an awkward and unpredictable pace that it’s difficult for opponents to time his movements. By the time you’re ready to counter him, Pacquiao’s already on the other side hitting you with a hook or an uppercut. Mayweather may be able to avoid/block the first two Pacman shots, but it remains to be seen if the “flanking” third and fourth can be stopped or slipped.

So what’s Manny’s “secret weapon?” I believe it’s the uppercut. Mayweather has a tendency to lean low to his right when trying to gauge and time his opponents before throwing his right hand or left jab to the body. Manny has been working on timing this movement with his sparring partners and once he sees an opening, the cat-quick six-inch short range uppercut may end up being Floyd’s undoing next Saturday.

In boxing, there is that old adage that styles make fights. On May 2, we’re about to be treated to a classic matchup that pits the conventional versus the unconventional, the boxer versus the puncher, and the defensive wizardry of a master technician against the offensive juggernaut who moves like a martial artist in the ring.

Like Manny said last month, “I can easily defeat the undefeated.”

You better believe it.



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