By Chester Rivers: For a few minutes let’s speak on facts instead of impulse. Let’s talk about what is and not what we wish things to be. The simple fact is, in order to defeat Floyd Mayweather Jr. one must be better. Manny Pacquiao is a good fighter but he is simply too flawed to win on May 2, 2015.
When watching Pacquiao fight the first flaw that jumps off the screen is Pacquiao’s high guard. Pacquiao never counters and always shell up whenever his opponents throw punches. His guard is extremely high as if he’s trying to protect himself from an overhand right or some other looping punches. This high guard leaves his body exposed. Mayweather is under rated as a body puncher and this punch should be open all night.
Manny Pacquiao also has terrible balance. If a punch from Mayweather lands while Pacquiao is off balance this could result in a cheap knockdown for Mayweather. The fact that Pacquiao is a lefty their feet could be tangle several times during the fight. A smart fighter like Mayweather could use this to their advantage.
Pacquiao tend to take rounds off. In his last 3 fights, all without Alex Ariza, Manny started to slow down around the fourth and fifth rounds. Ironically, this is the time Mayweather starts to come on strong. Pacquiao is fully aware that his best chance to catch Mayweather is early in the fight. Pacquiao may spend too much energy early trying to catch Mayweather before Floyd figures out his timing. Floyd jabs to the body could take even more steam out of Pacquiao. If this happens look for a late round stoppage. Pacquiao has been stopped before from a body punch.
I originally took the position that Mayweather would use movement to defend against Pacquiao’s flurries. After watching tape it appears he will use clinches. Whenever Pacquiao gets close Mayweather will reach out and tie him up. Mayweather need the fight to be on the outside. Tim Bradley, Brandon Rios and Chris Algieri all had success boxing on the outside. Floyd’s reach and jab is more dominant than those fighters. If Manny were to get in close he will be clinched. It’s not crowd pleasing but very smart.
Pacquiao has a tendency to lunge. A counter puncher like Mayweather will take full advantage with a variety of punches. Manny could be caught with another hard right like the Marquez IV fight or an uppercut like the one Holyfield used to stop Buster Douglas.
Manny has accomplished a lot but never against a fighter on this level. His athleticism can not make up for his mistakes. His best chance may be his only chance and that is a early round knock out.
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