(Photo credit: Stephanie Trapp/Mayweather Promotions) By Chris Williams: It’s pretty much academic at this point that Manny Pacquiao doesn’t have a chance of outsmarting Floyd Mayweather Jr no matter what strategy that his trainer Freddie Roach tries to come up with.
Roach was a limited fighter during his pro career, and the ideas that he has for Pacquiao to defeat Mayweather on May 2nd are pretty much focused on Pacquiao throwing a lot of punches and putting a lot of pressure on him.
These thoughts are echoed by Robert Garcia, the trainer for Marcos Maidana. Garcia thinks that Pacquiao has a good chance of beating Mayweather if he can pressure him like Maidana did in his first fight against Mayweather in May of 2014.
Garcia naturally assumes that a pressuring style will give Mayweather problems, because Maidana had some success against Mayweather in their first fight. But the problem with this theory is that Mayweather purposefully decided to stand and trade with Maidana because he wanted to make the fight exciting for the boxing fans.
Mayweather was on the ropes for the first four rounds of their first fight, and Maidana was able to use his 165 pound weight to land a lot of heavy shots. However, Mayweather got off the ropes in the 5th round, he was able to out-box Maidana the rest of the way in the center of the ring. In their rematch last September, Mayweather moved constantly and was able to win a fairly lopsided decision.
“I think, just like Maidana did the first time, put all that pressure. Stay on him, don’t give him any time to breathe, that’s the only way,”Garcia said via esnewsreporting.com. “We were close, we almost pulled it off. That’s the only way, what else? Or somebody smarter than him, but there’s nobody out there smarter than him right now.”
Garcia’s advice would be good for Pacquiao if Mayweather were to fight with his back against the ropes, or in a stationary position in the center of the round. Unfortunately, it’s not probable to expect Mayweather to fight like that, because he’s learned his lesson from his two fights against Maidana, and he’s not going to repeat that against the smaller Pacquiao.
You can make a strong argument that the Maidana that fought Mayweather the first time around is a better fighter than Pacquiao is now. Maidana came into the fight as a super middleweight against Mayweather in weighing 165 pounds, and he’s strong and he had a big weight advantage of 15 pounds.
Maidana also was giving up just three inches in reach to Mayweather. In contract, Pacquiao will likely weigh around 145 when he gets in the ring against Mayweather, and he’ll be giving up six inches in reach. That’s a half a foot in reach. Pacquiao won’t have the bulk to use against Mayweather the way Maidana did.
“Manny has the style because he throws a lot of punches. He’s just going to throw hundreds of punches compared to Mayweather one or two here and there,” Garcia said. “I think Manny being aggressive, throwing a lot of punches, he could do it.”
Pacquiao won’t have success against Mayweather because he’s not going to stay perfectly still so that Pacquiao can throw all those shots. Pacquiao needs a Joshua Clottey type of opponent for him to be able to get his shots off in bunches.
Clottey stood with his back against the ropes like a humble sparring partner when he fought Pacquiao in 2010. He didn’t move around the ring, and he made it easy for Pacquiao. Mayweather isn’t going to do that on May 2nd.
Pacquiao has a lot of artillery, but unless Mayweather stands perfectly still for him, he’s going to be too short to unload any of those shots. Pacquiao has bulked up in moving to the welterweight division, but he’s still a flyweight in size and reach. He’s not going to be able to hit the taller, longer armed Mayweather in this fight because his reach will be too limited.
Garcia’s fight plan would work against a smaller, slower or non-thinking fighter with limited talent and thinking ability, but he’s going to be in with a taller, arguably smarter, and a longer armed fighter in Mayweather. This means that Pacquiao is not going to be able to land his shots, because Mayweather won’t let him get in close enough to land.
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