Mayweather-Pacquiao from a judge point of view

By Yan D - 03/05/2015 - Comments

floyd002By Yan D: I think everything as been said about the mega fight. Fan from each sides believe their own fighter has the necessary tools to defeat their opponent. Manny Pacquiao’s fans all strongly believe in a KO that will humble the “monster” that is Floyd Mayweather Jr. Mayweather’s fans on the other end believe Manny will be easy work for the Money man, both sides have a right to their opinion and I respect that, but none of them are looking at this from the right point of view.

First of all this fight won’t end by a KO. Sorry to disappoint, but the most likely scenario is a 12 round fight, so the judges are gonna be responsible for crowing a winner. People can say what they want about Pacman getting older, facing bigger opponents but the fact remain that his “power” is not what it use to be, combine that with the iron chin and will of Floyd and I can’t see this fight ending with a Manny KO. The same goes for Floyd, he will surely tag Manny with some mean straight right and uppercut, but Floyd doesn’t plant his feet anymore when throwing huge shot the way Marquez did when he stopped Pacman in their 4th fight, combine that with the fact Floyd hands break easily, I can’t see Money stopping Manny.

So then let’s look at what the judges will be looking for in the bout. Professional Fights are judge by four factors 1) effective aggressiveness 2) clean punching 3) defense 4) ring generalship, so let’s look who has the upper hand in the judge’s eye.

1) Effective aggressiveness: A boxer demonstrates this trait when he consistently and successfully moves forward in a controlled manner.

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This is clearly the best advantage Pacquiao has in the judge’s eye. I think it is easy to guess that Manny will be the aggressor, he has too. He won’t win fighting backward or by trying to box against one of the best “boxer” of all time (I am talking skill wise). Mayweather has good footwork, but what truly makes it great is his rhythm. Floyd never takes the same step twice when he moves which makes it very hard to adapt. Another thing he does better then anyone is keeping the distance. He has an uncanny ability to hold is opponent on some kind of invisible leash, but Manny has amazing footwork, probably his only true advantage against Floyd (Floyd is bigger, taller, speed about the same, power about the same also Manny just punches more, Ring IQ favors Floyd). He will be able to disrupt Floyd’s movement and win point with his aggression, which is why I believe Floyd will have to stop moving around round 4 and completely change his game plan (good thing he his the best at adapting on the fly) and start walking Manny down (at least he will try, not sure it will work) during the middle round, which could help Manny a lot. But still, I see Manny winning the aggression game and he truly has to, if he really wants any chance at victory.
Advantage Manny.

2) Clean punching: “Clean” punches are punches that land on the face/side of the head and the front/side of the torso.

This one is tricky because we have no clue how many punches each fighters gonna land, but if we go on numbers alone, it is hard not to give the edge to Mayweather. He is after all the most accurate puncher in the world with one of the best defense ever. Manny does land a lot of punches but he has to throw a lot more to get there. This isn’t amateur boxing where each punch scores a point. This is Pro boxing where accuracy and hard shots landed are more important. This is why we often see a fighter win a fight even if he was out-landed by his opponent. You can’t only look at the total punch output this is not how it works, that’s why compubox is only a tool to help see how a fight is going and not actually a reference for the judges. 1 good clean straight right that rock a fighter’s head is gonna score more point then 3 weak jab (Canelo vs Trout is a good example), just like a few clean jabs are gonna score more point then a 2-3-4 hits combo that only graze the opponent, or hit the shoulders and elbows. Also any hit that lands on the back of the head is not a clean hit and judge don’t count them even if compubox does. No matter how you slice it it is hard not to give the edge to Money based on his accuracy and defense, but since Manny always find some way to defy the odds and is an awesome offensive fighter, I’ll give them a draw.
Advantage none.

3) Defense: Boxers that skillfully incorporate defensive maneuvers receive credit in this area.

This is so underestimated by casual fan but defense is as important as offense in a boxing match and can score even more point which is why some boxers like Pep, Whitaker, B-Hops, Rigondeaux, Ward can win round without throwing a lot of punches. It is also a great way to manage your stamina in a fight. Brawlers don’t have a choice, they need to keep punching because they aren’t defensive geniuses which is why so many of them seems to lack stamina, it is a lot harder on stamina to punch and miss then to dodge punches. The name of the game is “hit and don’t get hit” after all. So do I really need to explain why Mayweather wins this part?? Arguably one of the best defense of all-time, and when you manage to actually land a good one on him, he will make you pay, but you won’t ever catch him again with the same shot, which is why Mosley couldn’t finish the job, why Zab lost every round after his unofficial flash knockdown, good fighters land 1 or 2 great shots at Mayweather for the whole 12 rounds and this is all fans seem to remember, sorry but this doesn’t win you any boxing match, evading all the other punches does, especially when you land crisp counters in between. This section goes to Money hands down.
Advantage Floyd.

4) Ring generalship: The judges favor the fighter who controls the pace and style of the bout.

Again this is easy picking. Floyd has arguably the greatest boxing mind the sports has ever seen. His ring IQ is simply off the charts and not even the hardcore Manny fans can dispute this. You can’t impose your style on Floyd, lots of fighters have tried and they all eventually failed. It might works for a few rounds, but once Floyd finds his timing (And he will), he never loses control of a fight, except maybe for few moments when he takes a breather in the ring. Floyd ability to adapt in a fight is second to none, and again ever the haters can’t deny this. Floyd has one pace and it is his own, the only fighters who manage to take Floyd into deep waters by imposing their style on him were outweighing him by double digits (Castillo 1, Chop Chop Corley, De la Hoya, Cotto, Maidana 1) and with the exception of Castillo 1 (Floyd basically fought with 1 hand for most of the fight with a torn rotator cuff), he adapted to the fighter and made them pay for the second half of the fight “en route” to a decision (and please DLH never came close to winning that match same for Maidana). Manny is relentless in a ring, he might look good against Rios or Algeri, imposing his style on them, but what will he do when he starts to miss shots and eats counters?? We saw how Marquez, Morales, even Bradley found some way to slow down Pacquiao, making the pace of the fight slower then what Pacman would want, so I think Mayweather is gonna find a way to slow Manny down, it could be by smothering him like he did with DLH or simply by clinching like he did for Maidana, movement won’t work against Pacquiao so Floyd is gonna have to use his strength and size. For the first time since Marquez in 2009, Floyd will be the bigger man in the ring and in no way can Manny disrupt Floyd’s pace unless he catches him with a huge shot and even then we all know how that turned out for Mosley, Zab or Maidana, Floyd will show his versatility in this fight like he never did before.
Advantage Floyd.

Of course this is boxing, and we could spent all day arguing about who beats who, anything can happen. Both fighters have a shot, personally I see this a 60/40 fight in favor of Money, but Pacquiao is one hell of a fighter and could shock the world and I wouldn’t be surprised, but when analyzing how a bout is being judged, I have no choice but to go for a Floyd’s win by decision based on what judges will be looking for in this fight.

Good day to all, and can’t wait for may 2nd but there is still plenty of good fights coming our way before that.



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