By Leigh K. Seto: Las Vegas made a news release this week that determined Manny Pacquiao would be a 3 to 1 underdog to Floyd Mayweather Jr. Most experts would agree that this line it warranted. Mayweather has the boxing skills to be considered one of greatest of all times.
Mayweather’s defense could be compared with a defensive specialist like Hall of Fame fighter Pernell Whitaker. However, not matching his defense with his offense like Roy Jones Jr. and Sugar Ray Leonard may be the key to why Pacquiao will be the first to beat him.
Mayweather Jr. has proven in the ring to be the best pound for pound fighter in the world today. As he nears the 50 win total without a loss even those who do not support him can argue that he hasn’t been one of the best of this era. What he is missing from his resume is a defining win against an equal adversary. Maybe there is no equal? But even casual fans of the sweet science know that Pacquiao has earned his spot among the greats and also one of the few Boxers left that actually have the experience and skill set to rival Mayweather. But how can Pacquiao beat what has been unbeaten?
The first and obvious elephant in the room when it comes to the weakness in Floyd’s armor is his age. The greats of the past seemed to all max out their fighting life by age 36. Joe Lewis was knocked out by Rocky Marciano, Roy Jones Jr was knocked out by Antonio Tarver, and Oscar De La Hoya was stopped by Pacquiao. Fighters like Bernard Hopkins and Archie Moore are the exception and not the rule. Floyd is 39 years old and father time ALWAYS wins.
Secondly, to beat Floyd is high punching output. I saw an interview with a young Evander Holyfield where he described his introduction to the sweet science and a one month sparring session with James “Quick” Tillis. If you haven’t seen a “Quick” Tillis fight go to youtube. For those of you that remember him it was probably from a Mike Tyson highlight and being the first fighter to take “Iron Mike” to a decision. Well, young Evander spent the first 2 weeks fighting Tillis and losing badly and getting his Gold medal back handed to him by a slick veteran fighter. But Evander was able to make an adjustment and dominated Tillis during the last 2 weeks of sparring. What did he do differently? He threw more punches in his combinations. Evander said three and four punch combinations did not work against Tillis. So he started throwing 5-7 punch combinations. He figured out that Tillis could slip/or block the first set of punches in a combination, but not the latter punches. Pacauiao is high output fighter who throws 50-60 punches a round. In the recent fights Floyd has had against Marcos Maidana and Miguel Cotto, their small successes came from high output punching. Like Tillis, Floyd is impossible to pot shot, but can be hit at the end of long combinations. This will be key to Manny having success.
Then, there is Floyd’s recent lack of power. Fighters could never produce high output punching and rushing in against Roy Jones Jr. or Sugar Ray Leonard because of their power. That power led Leonard from lightweight to light heavyweight champion and Roy Jones Jr. the ability to go from light middleweight to heavyweight champion. This is why Floyd can’t move up weight classes. Floyd’s lack of power will help Manny tremendously. Some will argue however that Pacquiao has also had a lack of power in recent fights. I agree he hasn’t had one of his signature stoppages against his recent foe, but Chris Algieri, Brandon Rios, Tim Bradley, Juan Manuel Marquez and Shane Mosley were all hurt and wobbled in their fights against Manny. Why is Floyd’s lack of power and Manny’s existing power important? Because if you are going to be a high punching output fighter to beat Mayweather you will have to fight inside in stretches of the fight. The fact that Mayweather can’t hurt Manny means that Manny can take more risks without worrying about Floyd’s power.
Next step to beating Floyd Mayweather is experience. In 3 of his last 4 fights Pacquiao has fought skilled boxers. Algieri, Bradley and Marquez are considered the top 10 jr welterweight “boxers” in the sport. Bradley and Algieri have lightly regarded power, but are respected Boxers. Fighting quick fighters will help Manny with his timing the speed Floyd will bring. This experience will prevent Floyd from dazzling Manny with his hand speed. Floyd will rely on his ring generalship, counter punching ability which mostly means his defense. The problem I found with Floyd is that his recent opponents like Maidana, Cotto, Victor Ortiz, and Saul “Canelo” Alvarez are all one dimensional fighters. Slow, forward moving, flat footed fighters. None of these fights will help Floyd at all to prepare for Pacquiao. I saw Manny fight at Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas, Nevada in 2008 and his footwork is unmatched. He’s just as quick with his feet as he is with his hands, Mayweather has never fought anybody like him. Fighting flatfooted fighters to get ready for Pacquiao is equivalent to 4 years of inactivity.
And Finally, Pacquiao is Lefty. In baseball, you can throw a slow 85 mph fast ball and be in the big leagues. Why? Because the ball coming from the left hand is unorthodox, basically it just looks different. Mayweather has fought over 100 fights including his amateur career and probably faced only 4 really good left handed fighters. What it means is fighting a lefty will be uncomfortable for him. Oscar De La Hoya and Robert “The Ghost” Guerrero were lefties that he faced. Mayweather was able to beat both guys, but Oscar was not a natural lefty and “The Ghost” lacks the quickness and power of Pacquiao to be considered his equal. Oscar De La Hoya, however, fought a close decision with Floyd that many observers believe he actually won. Another lefty Floyd fought was Zab Judah and next to Oscar it was Floyd’s second most difficult fight. Maybe he has side stepped Manny all these years because he doesn’t like the idea of fighting another lefty. Breaking down Floyd’s excellent defense he uses his lead shoulder to slip the right hand, which is why right handed fighters never land their overhand right and right cross against Floyd. However, the right hand as a lead jab, like Oscar used as a lefty was very successful and a right hook to the body will be open all day. Floyd also tucks his chin underneath his right hand to block left hooks. Against right handed fighters this neutralizes their second most dangerous punch. But, as a lefty, Manny will have better success landing a straight left and left to the body.
I’m a realist and what I mean by that is I would not bet a cent against Mayweather. Betting against Floyd is a bad investment. He doesn’t lose, he doesn’t know how to lose. But if you don’t see Pacquiao as a worthy foe then you are naive. Pacquiao has beaten Hall of Fame fighters since he was a Blonde headed fireball that exploded on our T.V. screens. He has beaten a long list of Hall of Fame fighters named Erik Morales, Marco Antonio Barrera, De La Hoya, Cotto, Mosley, Ricky Hatton and Antonio Margarito. When Mayweather decides to fight Manny it will be the only guy next to Oscar De La Hoya that can equal him in accolades. If you don’t understand how good Pacquiao, rest assure that Mayweather does.
I have long disagreed that Floyd is afraid of him though. Boxers are Gladiators, and Floyd has fought over 100 times as an amateur and professional. Not to mention sparring partners and 30 years’ experience. He had a gun put in his face at 4 years old. He is not a coward he is the best boxer the Welterweight division has seen since Whitaker. But Pacquiao is dangerous to Floyd’s untarnished record. Factor in Floyds age, add Manny’s being lefty with his high punch output and quickness. Mayweather may find himself is a real dogfight that he just hasn’t prepared for.
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