By Scott Gilfoid: WBO 160lb strap holder Andy Lee thinks #1 WBC Martin Murray’s best chance of success this Saturday night is if he plays possum for the first six rounds of the fight against WBA Super World middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin (31-0, 28 KOs) in their fight on February 21st at the Salle des Étoiles, Monte Carlo, Monaco.

Lee believes that Murray can use his size and strength to come on in the second half of the fight to possibly score an upset over the Kazakhstan fighter. So in other words, Lee wants Murray to hide behind his clam-shell high guard and just look to block shots for the first six rounds against Golovkin, and then hope Murray isn’t too punch drunk in the last six rounds to come on and get the win.

Obviously, the problem with Lee’s advice is that Murray will likely wind up riddled to pieces by Golovkin is he tries to hide behind his clam-shell guard for the first six rounds. Murray is too stationary, too easy to hit to the body, and too conservative in terms of his work rate to be able to get to Golovkin in the second half of the fight.

I mean, the only thing that Murray will accomplish by playing possum in the first six rounds is him falling behind badly in the fight and then finding himself in a situation where he’ll need to win the last six rounds just to salvage a draw out of the fight. That obviously isn’t going to happen, because no one can win six consecutive rounds against a talent like Golovkin.

“I can see Murray doing that [just covering up with his clam-shell guard for the first six rounds] for the first half of the fight and then hoping to come on strong at the end,” Lee said via thesweetscience.com. “Then he can use his bigger size and strength. I think that would be Martin’s best approach; don’t try to win the first few rounds, just get through them without taking much punishment and land when you can. He has to hope to find the cracks in the second half of the fight,” Lee said.

That sounds nice in theory what Lee is saying, but the problem is that if Murray just covers up behind his high guard, he’s going to get nailed to the body with vicious shots from Golovkin and I don’t see Murray being able to stay on his feet for long. I know Murray prides himself on his ability to take head shots, but that’s not going to help him any if Golovkin targets his body during the first six rounds.

Murray can have the hardest head in the middleweight division, but if he gets to the body enough times or in the right place by Golovkin, he’s going to sink for the 10 count. Hiding behind his guard for six rounds is going to lead to Murray taking a real beating in this fight, and I think he knows that, or at least he should know it.

If Murray does decide to fight Golovkin the same way he fought Sergio Martinez and Felix Sturm in the past by hiding behind his clam-shell guard for the entire fight, then Golovkin is going to treat him like a sparring partner and obliterate him.

Even if Murray spends the first six rounds trying not to get hit to the head by Golovkin, he’s still going to get nailed frequently due to Golovkin being an expert and hooking his shots around the guard. Murray will no doubt be able to block the punches that come straight down the middle from Golovkin, but he’ll be as helpless as a baby in trying to stop punches that come around the sides.