An Analytical Study: Where Does Pacquiao Stand?

By Antonia Bufalino - 01/13/2015 - Comments

pac78676By Antonia Bufalino: Manny Pacquiao has lost his speed and power. His aggression is gone. His stamina is gone. He’s old. He’s a has-been. He’s only a shadow of what he used to be.

These are the words Manny Pacquiao has become accustomed to hearing since 2012. No doubt he hungers to prove these statements wrong. What does it take though? Does it take winning over a Top P4P, iron-chinned Timothy Bradley? Does it mean displaying his power against a technical boxer, Chris Algieri? Or, does it take beating Floyd Mayweather, to prove he is still here and very much alive?

To figure out where Pacquiao stands is why I have been studying his round-by-round efficiency and if it has declined substantially over the past few years.

Two fights I have compared were his November fight with Chris Algieri and his 2010 fight with Shane Mosley. Why I chose Shane Mosley was for a few reasons. First, this was just before people starting claiming Pacquiao was starting to slip. I also needed a fight that could be relatively compared to his most recent one. Algieri ran from Pacquiao all night. So, choosing Cotto, Marquez, or Margarito who actually engaged with him would have been more of a skew to my analysis. Though Mosley did engage with Pacquiao much more than Algieri, he became much more hesitant after he was knocked down, making it the most comparable fight I could find.

For this breakdown, I’ll show you the amount of punches thrown, landed, and connect rate for each round. This way, we can not only see if today’s Pacquiao is having a harder time connecting with his opponents(maybe by reduced hand speed, slower legs), but if he is also throwing significantly less punches(decreasing stamina). Like I said, Algieri’s excessive movement around the ring will skew this slightly, but just keep that in mind throughout the study.

So, here are the keys.

A = Pacquiao in Algieri Fight (2014)

M = Pacquiao in Mosley Fight (2011)

Easy enough, right? Here we go.

Rd 1
A: 11/39, 28%
M: 8/37, 22%

Rd 2
A: 12/51, 24%
M: 18/ 51, 35%

Rd 3
A: 18/54, 33%
M 18/54, 33%

Rd 4
A: 24/66, 36%
M: 21/56, 38%

Rd 5
A: 12/53, 23%
M: 13/52 25%

Rd 6
A: 18/50, 36%
M: 16/55, 29%

Rd 7
A: 13/48, 27%
M: 18/57, 32%

Rd 8
A: 17/52, 27%
M: 25/ 78, 32%

Rd 9
A: 45/72, 62%
M: 17/61, 28%

Rd 10
A: 20/48, 42%
M: 25/80, 31%

Rd 11
A: 21/63, 33%
M: 27/77, 35%

Rd 12
A: 18/73, 25%
M: 18/69, 26%

Okay, let’s break this down.

In rds 1-6, 2014 Pacquiao threw 313 punches. In rds 1-6, 2011 Pacquiao threw 305. So, for the first half of the fight, present day Pacquiao landed 95, and 2011 Pacquiao landed 94. Today’s Pacquiao out-landed the younger version by 1 punch for the first 6 rounds. That’s a 13% connect rate in the Algieri fight for the first 6 rounds, and a 30% connect rate for Pacquiao in the Mosley fight for the first 6 rounds. Well dang, 2014 Pacquiao threw slightly more punches but landed at a really low percentage. Pacquiao has some adjusting to do in the Algieri fight. Does he do it? Well, let’s see.

Rds 7-12, 2014 Pacquiao threw 356 punches. This means the 2014 Pacquiao threw 51 MORE punches in the latter half of the Chris Algieri fight! So as the fight goes on, he is increasing his work rate and punch output.

But, let’s look at 2011 Pacquiao too. Rounds 7-12, 2011 Pacquiao threw 422 punches. He increased his punch output even more, throwing 66 more punches than the 2014 Pacquiao did in the latter half of the fights.

Here’s the interesting part though. Even though 2011 Pacquiao threw 66 more punches in the latter half of the fight, 2014 Pacquiao still out-landed him!!! 2011 Pacquiao had around a 30% connect percentage, and the 2014 Pacquiao had around a 40% connect percentage- and this was for the later rds 7-12. Why did today’s Pacquiao make such an improvement? Because, this version of Pacquiao is a lot smarter than we give him credit for, and his ability to make adjustments in the November fight were ‘flawless,’ as Algieri described.

This current day Pacquiao not only out-landed the younger Pacquiao in the later rounds when he should have been fading, but he also did it against a runner! Mosley engaged with Pacquiao at moments in the second half of the fight. Algieri was on his roller skates forcing Pacquiao to work significantly harder to land his punches. And still, Pacquiao out-landed the younger Pacquiao in rds 7-12! This not only shows he still has his stamina but also ring IQ that we never saw from the wild, careless tornado he used to be.

So, the conclusion of this study showed me the following:

Today’s Pacquiao is still able to increase his work rate and punch output while also becoming more efficient, even if he has to work harder to land against a running opponent. Out-landing a younger Pacquiao who threw 66 more punches in the later half of the fight(7-12), and against an opponent who was running, shows an increased use of tactical thinking.

So, is the the exact same Pacquiao? No, I don’t think so. However, the extent of Pacquiao’s slippage is exaggerated, and whatever Pacquiao has lost when it comes to athletic gifts, he has replaced with intelligence.

 



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