My Two Cents: Hopkins vs Kovalev

By Jay McIntyre - 11/03/2014 - Comments

1-DBCG1114by Jay McIntyre: The struggle as old as time – age vs youth – is about to be settled in Atlantic City on November 8th. Statistically a fighter’s prime years are his early thirties where he is blessed with that perfect mixture of youth and wisdom. Sergey Kovalev is at this phyiscal and mental summit in his career. But as the years and the body wear on, the mind is called upon more and more to find a way to persevere. For, make no mistake, every fighter only has so many fights in him. How many fights that happens to be comes down to the nature of the fights and the nature of the fighter. When one looks at Bernard Hopkins, a 49 year old prize fighter who has lived and seen it all, one must wonder: how many fights does he have left, or is he on borrowed time? His capacity to scorn Father Time seems decidedly “alien”.

Bernard “The Alien” Hopkins

At the age of 49, Bernard Hopkins (55-6-2-2, 32 KO’s) is attempting to break the record for being the oldest boxer to ever win a major world title. He has done it before when he defeated Jean Pascal in 2011 at the age of 46 (surpassing the record established by the 45 year old George Foreman in 1994). However, each time his next fight is announced, people ask: “How old is this guy?”. The short answer: he’s old enough to have been boxing across four decades.

Interestingly enough, the very criticisms leveled against him nearly a decade ago, are still being made today. Perhaps this is justifiable. Many felt that since Antonio Tarver, Kelly Pavlik, and Jean Pascal were all on impressive win streaks and in the prime of their lives, they would all make Hopkins feel every inch of his age. Of course the naysayers were dead wrong, and aside from losses to Joe Calzaghe and Chad Dawson (both split decisions), Hopkins hasn’t tasted defeat in since 2005.

It would behoove us, however, to understand how Bernard Hopkins was able to defeat youth in all its many forms. His capacity to fight so far into the twilight years of his (or any) career is not due to his remarkable stamina, power or natural talent – in fact he is pretty average in all those respects. Simply put, it’s his discipline and shrewdness. His discipline outside the ring has led to a near monastic life style, while his shrewdness inside the ring has allowed him to deny his opponents the ability to do what they do best. While they grow increasingly frustrated and make an increasing number of mistakes, he continues to pick at and potshot his opponents over the course of the fight. He is, in effect, “human sandpaper”. He chafes and irritates his opponents into making mistakes and gradually wears them down with a combination of careful stratagem and discipline.

When Hopkins tries to unify the belts on November 8th he will need to jab, clinch and turn Kovalev at every chance he can get. These three things will have the cumulative effect of opening other punching opportunities for him, while stymying the hopes of Kovalev.

Clinching

One thing Hopkins is willing to do at the expense of the attending crowd’s amusement is tie up his opponent. He does this for a variety of reasons but at the end of it all, it keeps them from hitting him. It’s a pretty shrewd tactic because often you will see him jab in, or lead with a straight right hand, and then effect a clinch immediately. This tendency to “punch and clutch” allows him to score points and deny his opponent that chance to score his own. When the referee separates them – because Hopkins will usually hold on for dear life rather than trade shots with a stronger puncher –  it’s basically like hitting the “reset” button, and it allows him to find a way to do it again.

In some cases, Hopkins won’t even throw a punch prior to effecting a clinch and will simply tie up for superior positioning. In the following example against Tavoris Cloud he does just that, and look where he ends up: with control of the centre of the ring.

Jab

Hopkins has a very reliable jab and it has been battle-tested against opposition to which Kovalev’s resume simply pales in comparison. In particular, Hopkins has a very fast and unsuspecting body jab. While the body jab is not a punch that often gets much attention, it certainly has the potential to be a vital instrument for Hopkins when coupled with the jab to the head. Kovalev stays balanced and his hard punches are actually pretty measured – never wasting his energy – but his defense isn’t all that spectacular. His right hand for example has a habit of straying, particularly when he punches with his left hand. Hopkins – being the faster puncher – will jab high, and jab often. When Kovalev seeks to adjust to this pesky jabbing, Hopkins should look to fire his jab to the gut. Kovalev doesn’t fight stupidly so he won’t tire himself out, but those spearing shots to the body will have a gradual, wearing effect.

Lateral Movement

Hopkins is the lighter of the two and much quicker with his feet and he will need to use that speed to stay out of Kovalev’s way. Given Kovalev’s desire to bury his opponents under a heap of punches along the ropes, this is pretty much a no-brainer.

In circling back and forth – to the left and right – Hopkins forces his opponent to turn to meet him. This will be essential to Hopkins success. If a fighter moves, this forces his opponent to respond and it gives the temporary advantages to the boxer that has moved (wisely) first. As a brief comparison, think back to the time you got your ass handed to you in chess and the other guy looked bored while he humbled you – that’s controlling the initiative, and that’s what movement does for a boxer.

One thing that Nathan Cleverly’s four round beating, and Gabriel Campillo’s three round demolition showed everyone is that standing still with a willingness to punch, or circling around with a willful devotion to not punch will achieve nothing. But if Hopkins can perform a twelve round drive by shooting, he may have some real success.

Cracks in the Armour

Hopkins’ four defeats in the past ten years have a few things in common. They have all come by way of close decision. His opponents were also all at least slightly faster than Hopkins, particularly with their hand speed. The other important thing they had in common was excellent boxing skills. But each of those four opponents had a vastly different style from one another. Chad Dawson was a good southpaw. Joe Calzaghe was a relentless swarmer, and Jermain Taylor was a well-rounded technician that outboxed Hopkins. With their respective skills they were able to impose their rhythm while Bernard found it difficult to get into his own groove.

The other trend behind Bernard Hopkins’ losses is the compubox stats which reveal that his recent conquerors (the past decade) have all out-jabbed him. Bear in mind that the jab is a unique punch in that it’s usefulness does not always come from being able to land it. Oftentimes, it serves as a means to establish or break rhythm, to distract the opponent, or merely to find range. Knowing its multi-faceted use, consider that the following statistics reveal that even a missed jab is probably serving some purpose.

Bernard Hopkins vs Jermain Taylor I (2005): Hopkins landed 18/109 to Taylor’s 36/254
Bernard Hopkins vs Jermain Taylor II (2005): Hopkins landed 29/131 to Taylor’s 64/209
Bernard Hopkins vs Joe Calzaghe (2008): Hopkins landed 11/93 to Calzaghe’s 45/224
Bernard Hopkins vs Chad Dawson (2012): Hopkins landed 24/124 to Dawson’s 25/168

How does all of the above carry over when we look at his impending fight against Sergey Kovalev? Well, Kovalev is a composed pressure fighter with a grasp of the fundamentals from his many days as an amateur boxer. This, coupled with his obvious power can cause problems for “The Alien” that he has not seen before. Pascal managed to floor Hopkins a couple of times (one may have been a punch landed behind the head, it’s hard to tell, sometimes Bernard scratches the back of his head after some close calls) and he lacks the poise of Kovalev – imagine what “The Krusher” could do. Kovalev’s persistence, composure and his certainty in his power will make him eager to drag Hopkins into a firefight. The one catch though, is that Kovalev’s jab is slower, shorter, and less educated than Hopkins’. Scoring with it may be harder than merely using it as a yard stick to unleash those howitzers in his gloves.

Sergey “The Krusher” Kovalev

The most important thing Sergey Kovalev (25-0-1, 23 KO’s)  has going for him when he steps through the ropes isn’t his youth – though he certainly is much younger than Hopkins. I would also be so bold as to say that it’s not his power – although that certainly can’t be ignored either. The game-changer for Kovalev will be his unshakable demeanor. Lots of younger, stronger punchers have fought and lost to “The Alien”. However, one thing that Bernard Hopkins’ past conquerors have been able to do is maintain their mental composure despite his pre-fight mind games, and in ring antics. When Hopkins boldly proclaimed that he would “never let a white boy beat [him]. Never”, Calzaghe responded by overwhelming the quasi-racist with a Harry Greb style volume of punches. If Sergey Kovalev can keep his self-control, then he will be able to play his game, and not Hopkins’. To win, much of Kovalev’s gameplan should involve pressuring, combination punching, and drawing the counter punch if he wants to defeat Bernard Hopkins.

Pressure

Max Kellerman was recently quoted as saying that “Kovalev has to attack Hopkins”, but this is no surprise. Since when has Kovalev ever been on, or looked great fighting off of, his back foot? He will certainly be moving forward, and he most certainly will be bringing fire and brimstone with him. How can he not? The point here is that he not apply pressure too recklessly. He needs to constanly cut off Hopkins’ angles of escape and be close enough to threaten, but not so close that Hopkins can grab and spin away from him.

The jab will be useful to Kovalev here as an instrument of measurement so that he can continually probe his distance to and the reactions of Hopkins. He will have to be careful though as his jab is both slower and shorter than Hopkins, who is a far more astute jabber, so Kovalev cannot simply jab and plod (something he has been allowed to get away with in the past). Given Hopkins tendency to slip inside and clinch or jab back, Kovalev should be waiting to deploy a right hand counter, or an uppercut if Hopkins chooses to close the gap.

Even though Kovalev may not land cleanly on Hopkins for portions of the rounds, he can control the aggression and use his volume of punches to bank some of the rounds in his favour. When Hopkins lost to Jermain Taylor, it was largely Taylor’s composure and unwillingness to overextend himself which contributed to Hopkins’ inactivity. Forcing Hopkins backwards and punching him towards the ropes will help him win rounds and perhaps even force a reaction from Hopkins.

Combination Punching

Just when you think Kovalev will get overeager and foresake any semblance of form, he manages to keep it together and this balance allows him to adjust to his opponent and keep power in both hands. Kovalev has the sort of killer instinct that almost reminds me of Joe Louis (but I won’t make many comparisons beyond that).

Kovalev doesn’t punch himself out looking for the highlight reel win. Instead, he picks at whatever openings present themselves, and if the knockout isn’t forthcoming, he will bide his time until a later opportunity. Some fighters react to dazing their opponent with a rush of frenetic – near anxious – energy which leaves them sloppy and tired; Kovalev looks like he has been expecting it the whole time but doesn’t care if it happens anyway.

If Kovalev can trap Hopkins along the ropes, or catch him as he closes the distance to clinch, he will want to invest in some serious combination punching. He won’t have many opportunities because Hopkins is notoriously difficult to hit, so when he does have a chance to hit anything on the arms or in the scoring area of the body, he should. Punching the arms would be beneficial to Kovalev because, even though it won’t give him points, it will tire out and weaken Hopkins’ ability to fight back and defend himself. Hopkins isn’t a very hard counter puncher, so Kovalev should punch at those arms if Hopkins gives him nothing else – at the very least it will wear him out down the stretch.

Lastly, if there is ever a time that Hopkins will choose to be standing in front of Kovalev, it will be ever so briefly before, during and after he seeks to clinch. Using that brief window, Kovalev will want to try and land as fiercely and often as he can.

Draw the Counter

This isn’t really something that gets talked about when people look at Kovalev, but in this case it may warrant some consideration. Why I think that this may be his time to exercise this skill lies in the fact that Hopkins will potshot and try to get out of the way (you will only see him combination punch in this fight when he is at a significant tactical advantage, or when – in the unlikely event – he has hurt Kovalev). Since a boxer is often at his most exposed when punching, Kovalev may be able to exploit some form of defensive gap by drawing a counter from Hopkins. If Kovalev can give Hopkins a reason to throw, it will allow him to time Hopkins’ punch, and then he may be able to catch the cagey old man before he can flee to safety.

Cracks in the Armour

For all of Kovalev’s boxing pedigree, power and patience, he does have some weaknesses that have yet to be fully exploited. The primary reason behind this mainly lies in the quality of his opposition. Most of Kovalev’s opponents fall into the trap of either sitting on his line of attack,  and hoping to counter and land the cleaner punches, or to get on their bikes and move around the ring without effecting much offense. The problem with the first strategy is that they are trading broadsides against a fighter with heavier weapons, and the problem with the second strategy is that they allow Kovalev a free and uncontested reign over both the ring and pace of the fight. I wrote in an earlier article that Kovalev will lose to a great boxer, not a great puncher and I believe this because the two most effective ways to deal with Kovalev’s offense is to turn him and stutter his rhythm with sharp (not necessarily hard) punching. He has shown how prone he is to the jabbing of his opponent, particularly when they get off his line of attack once they have landed.

His defense is reliant on the placement of his arms and his counter punching, but not too much in the way of movement. If his opponent stands in front of him, those counters can feel an artillery strike – and that’s great for Kovalev. But when, in all his professional career has he fought a boxer that has been able to deny his combinations, keep him turning, and beat him to the punch? Never were those things present in an opponent all at once (or, at the very least, for much more than a few seconds).

Prediction

Bernard Hopkins will win a close unanimous decision. I believe this will be the end result mostly because Hopkins has is very good at frustrating the rhythm of his opponent. Hopkins has a more storied resume and has been forced to adjust to more difficult opposition than Kovalev. This may not seem like a fair thing to say about Kovalev – after all, he simply knocks down the guys they put in front of him – but at the end of the day, I think Hopkins will simply have the better game plan. “The Alien” has established a tendency to expose young, up-and-coming fighters. The one difference, however, between all of Bernard’s defeated foes in the past decade and Sergey Kovalev is that he is a boxer puncher that is just as shrewd with his boxing as he is severe with his punching. Kovalev won’t overexpose himself, get angry, or give chase recklessly. It won’t be an easy fight for either man, but stylistically, Hopkins has just enough of the right stuff to pull it off.

Read more articles and analysis at A Neutral Corner: a-neutral-corner.blogspot.ca
Follow me on Twitter: @ANC_Boxing

 



Comments are closed.