By G. Cooper: Carl “The Jackal” Frampton fights Kiko Martinez for the second time this weekend, seven days before Mayweather-Maidana II, and a week after the UFC’s Dillashaw-Barao II, so it seems fair to call the cusp of football 2014 the season of the rematch.
Or seemed fair, until Renan Barao passed out while trying to make weight, and was hospitalized. His withdrawal, following the July withdrawal of Dereck “Dellboy” Chisora from Fury-Chisora II after fracturing his hand in his final sparring session, has the season of the rematch feeling more like the season of the cancellation. At least Fury-Chisora II is rescheduled for November 22.
Let’s hope that no last minute disaster scratches Frampton-Martinez II. I’ve been anticipating this fight for a few months, and in the last few days betting interest in the bout has picked up. Frampton had been a (-485) favorite for months, but dipped to (-450) for a day or so, before shooting up to (-550).
Frampton was favored in the first fight, and won by a ninth round KO. In the interim, Martinez won the IBF Super Bantamweight Championship, and defended it twice, both times against former champions. Martinez was impressive in these fights, relentlessly pushing forward and insisting that his opponents slug it out with him. Kiko hits hard, and in each case his pressure was too much for his opponents.
He fought the first fight against Frampton the same way as well, but kept walking into jab after lighting jab. Frampton showed terrific footwork and was equally comfortable throwing the jab while moving forward or backward, or standing and peppering Martinez with flurries far too quick for him to handle.
After easily outpointing Martinez for the first five rounds, Frampton spend most of the next three rounds standing and trading blows with the heavy-handed Spaniard. While the announcer’s card had Frampton losing these rounds,* he showed a nice chin, and that he is capable of fighting more than one style. If his intent was to soften Martinez up, he succeeded, knocking him out in the 9th.
Frampton demonstrated that as long as he is content to use his footwork and speedy jab, he can win any round he wants, as Martinez simply cannot keep up with his speed. Frampton gave up rounds later in the fight, apparently because he saw staying in the pocket was a path to the eventual knock-out.
Frampton’s ambition may be Kiko’s best chance, as going for the KO gives Martinez more chances to hit him, and possibly finish the fight the other way. Frampton sensibly fought more defensively while in close, and while this helped him avoid getting hurt, it helped Martinez win rounds, as Kiko was more active in close. (Continually moving forward, Martinez was also active while Frampton was sticking and moving, he was just too slow to hit him.)
The two biggest dangers to Frampton are that Martinez catches him with a knock-out punch, or that he thinks he is further ahead than the judges do, and costs himself too many rounds while going for the knock-out himself. He has shown he can take a punch, but that danger never really goes away.
Most fights that go the distance have judges differing by at least two rounds on the scorecards, so a strategic miscalculation is a real possibility. I really think Frampton can win any round he wants, as long as he is content to stay outside and box, but I am sure he will be more ambitious than this, and that could prove his undoing.
Otherwise, a Martinez win would have to come from the Spaniard getting faster or stronger, or possibly by changing his style. Watching his last three fights, I see no stylistic change, and no more speed. Martinez seems content to always fight the same way, always moving forward, applying pressure, and forcing his opponent to slug it out. It keeps working, as his opponents have lacked Frampton’s footwork, and have lacked his hand speed. As long as your opponents can’t handle your style, why change? Is Martinez stronger? At one of their promotional events, he certainly seemed to want to convince Frampton of this, flexing and showing off muscles layered of muscles. If this kind of display helps you rate his puncher’s chance at greater than 4/1, you’re welcome to it.**
The last three fighters Martinez beat have all held titles, but Frampton has them all outclassed. This fight is his for the taking. While my primary interest in this fight is to profit from it, I would also like to see Frampton gain some worldwide recognition, and this belt should be a step towards that. I think most Americans don’t know who he is, and we are missing out on a terrific young fighter, though hopefully not for long. I couldn’t stand another cancelled fight.
*I had Martinez winning the 8th, and thought the 6th and 7th were close, but that’s sort of my point–we all see these things a bit differently from one another.
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