My Two Cents: Alvarez vs. Lara

By Jay McIntyre: This article is an abbreviated one, to see the full version with illustrations and discussion please visit my blog: http://a-neutral-corner.blogspot.ca/2014/07/my-two-cents-alvarez-vs-lara.html
Follow me on Twitter: @JayMcintyre83

A fight like this just makes sense. The number one and number two fighters in the light middleweight division are fighting for what is essentially pride. There are no major world titles. There are no guarantees afterward.

There is just a powerful need for both men to determine what they are worth. This truly is a fight for the fans, because when Saul “Canelo” Alvarez and Erislandy Lara step through the ropes against one another, two fighters at their peak will be trading leather. This is perhaps the most important fight at light middleweight (or super welterweight, depending on who you ask) and it will take place – appropriately enough – at the bastion of boxing in Las Vegas: the MGM Grand Garden on July 12th. Lara said just about everything short of insinuating that he slept with Alvarez’s mom in an effort to goad him into this fight. Imagine that: it worked – much to the chagrin of Oscar De La Hoya, his promoter, who told him to not take it. While Lara was able to talk his way into this fight, but he will need to use more than words to frustrate the dangerous and hard-hitting Alvarez.
Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (43-1, 31 KO’s)

Praise: power in both hands, good combination punching, good head movement and balance

Concern: still some question marks around his stamina, takes time off during rounds, ponderous jab

There’s no mistaking a promotional flagship when you see one and Saul Alvarez is such a figure for Golden Boy Promotions. To be brief: believe the hype. His lone defeat is to Floyd Mayweather Jr. and that is nothing to sneer at. He is, in many ways, a complete package when it comes to a marketability: humility, power, technique, aggression (albeit controlled), a strong fan base, and a long career ahead of him given his young age of 23. What he lacks – like so many fighters these days – are career defining fights. Thus far he has beaten the men he was expected to beat and he lost to the man he was expected to lose to. This fight is a significant one for him because it has the potential to be that career defining fight that so many prizefighters yearn for when building a legacy. In order to build that legacy, however, Canelo will need to be firing on all cylinders and stick to what he does best.

Recipe for Success

In building a recipe for success I always tend to look for the following: what a fighter is good at, what a fighter is not good at, and what they need to do to maximize the former, while minimizing the latter. It sounds pretty obvious but usually the annoying fact that “styles make fights” thwarts me as I harvest my data. Anyway, I digress, and for Canelo to win against Lara – a prototypical southpaw, steeped in amateur experience – he will need to do the following:

1. Attack by Drawing

Lara is a pretty savvy counter-puncher, and he is also really good at timing his opponents as they close the gap to attack. The worst way to go about fighting a counter-puncher is to try and ‘beat them to the punch’. It won’t work. It’s a fool’s errand. Don’t even try it. The better way is to tempt them or threaten them into throwing a punch so that your own punch can counter their mistake.

Hence the term ‘attack by drawing’, which Bruce Lee used to describe the art of compelling the opponent to attack (however you see fit), so that you can come back with your own aggression while they are momentarily exposed. Canelo’s jab, which I have been skeptical about in the past does at least serve the purpose of backing up his foe (if they don’t effectively counter it outright as Mayweather and Trout did) and such a punch has been used as a part of his overall attempt at pressuring and lining up his opponent.

It is worth noting that Lara is a southpaw and a southpaw’s liver is on the side of his body that is closer to his opponent. If the southpaw’s opponent is a capable body puncher (which Canelo is) then his jab must be augmented with the right ingredients (angles, timing, speed) or else he will be in for a painful night of straight rights and left hooks to the short ribs.

2. Apply pressure

Another stratagem which would benefit Canelo is to pressure Lara in a calculated and measured manner. This might sound like a vague, sweeping statement meant to convey the obvious so allow me to elaborate. Pressure fighting is as much psychological as it is physical. Physically, a pressure fighter needs to be close enough to threaten and/or cause damage to the opponent he is stalking, but the pressure fighter must not give chase too recklessly (or he will eat a counter), or back off too much and give his opponent room to breathe. It is a balancing act indeed as too much or too little can make your pressure meaningless. There is a psychological element as well. Fighting is about rhythm and if the opponent cannot establish his range, distance, or settle into his groove because he is being moved about the ring then the initiative lays largely in the hands of the aggressor who can then dictate the rhythm and pace of the fight.

When Canelo fought Austin Trout (the closest facsimile to Erislandy Lara in his resume of wins) in April of 2013, he was satisfactory in his ability to cut off the ring. His biggest problem was the reach of Trout and closing the gap against a southpaw boxer without getting hit. He struggled on both counts and was tagged by jabs and straights in the early going of the fight before he made some adjustments and Trout became so weary of Canelo’s power that he threw his left with far less frequency.

3. Combination punching

The two criticisms I have about Canelo’s punching are his punching speed and his tendency (diminishing lately) to over-commit to his shots. His best punching always seems to be against opponents that either stand right in front of him, or simply back up on a straight line (and thus remain on his line of attack). While I do see slight improvements in Canelo’s boxing ability each time he steps through the ropes the one thing that always has been a crucial facet to his game is his ability to put together very effective combinations. This is something that his opponents have a hard time preparing for because his punches are quite powerful and his opponents often find themselves becoming tentative or over-committing to their defense in order to minimize the damage from these blows. This, in and of itself, can give Canelo the initiative and such was the case in his fight against Austin Trout (after the first couple of rounds it looked like Trout was having a field day, and then his punches grew more reluctant and he didn’t let his hands go as often after eating some serious leather from Canelo). It was also evident when he fought against Alfredo “El Perro” Angulo. “El Perro” means the “The Dog” because of his tendency to come back after brutal rounds and always maul his opponent. When Canelo fought Angulo, “The Dog” was swiftly tamed because Angulo was getting strafed by just about everything Canelo threw and he knew that walking into those punches would hurt even more.

Putting all of this together, if Canelo can effectively pressure Lara into throwing first, then he can counter those shots and/or get inside to land his vaunted body blows and arcing power punches to his opponent’s head.

Cause for Concern:

Canelo’s jab needs work. It is an incredibly mercurial punch since it either lands like a right hand or whiffs aimlessly out of range at nothing. He pushes it out, rather than flicking it at his opponent, but he does at least time it well. Part of this is a product of his opposition. Steeped among the list of conquests is not necessarily a list of fighters that needed taming with a reliable jab.

Canelo seems more prone to react to his opponent’s rhythm than to create opportunities where he can disrupt them. I know this may sound absurd, but in watching his fights against Shane Mosley, Austin Trout and Floyd Mayweather Jr., Alvarez showed a hidden but discouraging tendency to let his opponent dictate the pace while he countered slowly. His power is certainly a game changer, and he has a keen sense of timing, but a fresh opponent will usually take the first couple of rounds against him.

Much like Juan Manuel Marquez, Canelo is a counter-fighter that relies on timing and combinations. This makes the two men very unique, but it also allows pot-shotting snipers to have free reign if they are allowed to roam around and are not brought to heel.

Canelo always operates at his best when his opponents are standing in front of him. Floyd Mayweather knew this which is why he used his movement to prevent Canelo from landing anything meaningful. Lara moves rather well, and though he does indeed languish, this movement will frustrate Canelo when it is employed. Lara’s speed and movement – if executed properly – will indeed create problems.

Erislandy Lara (19-1-2, 12 KO’s)

< u>Praise: slick movement, precise punching, good stamina and technical ability

Concern: a tendency to linger unnecessarily and give his opponent opportunity, ability to fight on the inside is one-dimensional

Erislandy Lara might just be one of the most unnoticed talents in boxing these days. Boxers like Lara and his fellow Cuban, Guillermo Rigondeaux, have all the talent and skill one could ask for in boxing, but do not necessarily fight with a crowd pleasing style. While the old adage about boxing is that it is the art of “hitting and not getting hit,” that does little to slake the thirst of the many bloodthirsty fans. For whatever reason this sound logic means little when fans ask for their fighters to “just bleed”. Lara, ironically, is a victim of his own talent.

His opponent by contrast has been a much coveted prospect who has received considerable accolades for his unbridled power. Perhaps this is why Lara has felt the need to build interest in this fight through ‘trash talk’ and making controversial statements. In looking at these statements one can read the subtext: he feels jilted and believes he is better than his opponent, who has received far more acclaim. This could also just be pure salesmanship, knowing that when opportunity knocks, you rob it blind. None of this really matters when both men step through the ropes. What does matter is how each man readies himself for July 12th. Still though, Lara must certainly feel the pressure to perform after having said what he has said.

Recipe for Success

The blueprint for Lara to win is pretty straightforward as his style of fighting is usually predicated on the same principles: movement, distance, and timing.

1. The Southpaw Left

Lara will want to only give up as much of the ring as he absolutely has to while circling around the perimeter of the ring. With a reach of 75 inches and a preference to fight at a comfortable range, Lara will want to keep Canelo on the end of his jabs and straight lefts. It is his left hand that will be his greatest asset. Most orthodox fighters know this, so confusing them becomes a prerogative when landing the power shots. Lara is the sort of fighter who knows how to use the full range on his punches and will undoubtedly seek to keep Canelo on the end of his jabs and 1-2 combinations while constantly moving around.

2. Constant Movement

Lara needs to get on his bike and ride for pretty much the whole fight. Canelo is too strong and dangerous a combination puncher to stand on his line of attack for anything longer than a split-second. Ending up in a corner against a hard hitting combination puncher like Canelo would be akin to suicide, so corners = big trouble. Rather than try to joust Canelo like so many of his previous opponents have done, Lara will shoot and move sideways. Constant lateral movement will force Canelo to pivot or turn to face him and this will give Lara the fraction of a second he needs to set up his pot-shots.

Boxers with a deep amateur resume are polished technicians. There aren’t too many instances which stand in contrivance to this. Their understanding of distance, timing and angles is quite astute, and they often can find a great deal of success at the professional level if they can adapt to the jungles of professional fighting. Lara has adapted and been quite effective at moving with subtle, clever intentions.

3. Set ‘Traps’

Last, but not least, Lara will want to set traps for Canelo. In boxing setting a trap for your opponent basically means making them walk into something they aren’t expecting. It’s a pretty vague term in some ways, but it implies that you are creating an opportunity for yourself.

It’s almost pre-ordained that Canelo will take the lead while Lara will be his ‘huckleberry’, so creating moments to clobber Canelo as he moves in will be an obvious stratagem for the cagey Cuban. So, how has Lara ‘set traps’ in the past, and what might they look like on July 12th? Well, there are a number of ways, but here is one example. One trap that Lara has been known to employ is to keep his lead hand low and crouch forward, thereby presenting his head as an obvious target. In truth, if you look at the distance between the lead foot of each man, he is not in any real trouble, but his opponent, sensing an opportunity will take the bait.

When you watch the fight this Saturday (if you feel so inclined, no pressure), then try to see what Lara does as far as controlling distance and giving Canelo small ‘openings’ which Lara will use as opportunities for his sharp counters. If Lara gets any room to breathe on Saturday night, you will able to appreciate the little things he does to get his opponent to come to him, but also keep himself at a safe distance.

Cause for Concern

Lara is a very good boxer, but far from a complete one (who is, really?). He flirts with disaster and languishes along the ropes (or along his opponent’s line of attack), thinking his defense is confusing enough to thwart his attackers. His fight against Alfredo Angulo, however, showed us that his inside game is pretty average. As I stated previously, part of what makes Canelo’s combination punching so dangerous is the use angles and levels at which he throws his shots. Angulo was able to throw a couple punches to the body as a set up for his vaunted left hook and while Lara was thinking ‘body’, he got decked by a left hook to the head. This happened twice (in the 4th and 9th round). If Lara loses focus for a second, he will find himself in troubled waters.

Fun Facts

The fact that these two men have two common opponents would suggest that some obvious conclusions can be made as to who might be the clear victor on July 12th. After poring over the footage, that is apparently not the case. While Alfredo Angulo and Austin Trout have fought both men, the confusion sets in when we look at how they fared. For example, one might deduce that since Trout frustrated Canelo on several occasions, but was in turn outclassed by Lara, then Lara will have a pretty straightforward go against Canelo. The problem here is that Lara fought his fight and made Trout assume the role of aggressor – a role which looked awkward and ungainly for him. Also, while Angulo floored Lara twice and gave him some headaches throughout their fight which Lara managed to win in the 10th round, Angulo was in turn savagely beaten by Canelo in a very one-sided affair. Perhaps Angulo’s tentativeness was born from his stoppage loss to Angulo? Who can tell?

I did, however, manage to glean these points from those fights:

1. Regardless of how much a boxer knows about Canelo’s power, they don’t really know it until they fight him. Both Trout and Angulo showed a tendency to change/wilt (respectively) from these punches.

2. Lara is a smooth boxer but backs straight up far more than he ought to when responding to his opponent’s leads (this is more of an issue when he doesn’t counter as he still stays on his opponent’s line of attack).

3. Canelo starts slow but does make modifications as the fight wears on. Essentially his lack of activity lets his opponent’s bank rounds against him.

4. The Angulo that fought Lara was not the Angulo that showed up against Canelo.

5. Lara sticks to his game plan, always, and suckers his opponents into making mistakes.

Prediction

Expect Saul “Canelo” Alvarez to pick up a unanimous decision over Erislandy Lara. This fight will be an interesting one especially when the judges are compiling their scores. While Lara has a steady, but relatively low output throughout the rounds, Canelo tends to fight in bursts to conserve energy and to try to steal rounds. The cleaner punching will be of absolute importance as these will be the punches that sway the judges. That being said, I think Lara will linger just a bit too long in front of Canelo on enough occasions to get whacked by something vicious and these shots will be quite meaningful down the stretch. Although speed kills, power is also quite decisive. Canelo can eat a punch and land a harder one, if Lara isn’t quick enough to get out of the way. I also believe that Canelo is a more complete boxer than Lara. The one thing that clearly defines each man though is that what Lara does, he does damn well, while Canelo is better at more things, but not necessarily a master of all – or even a good number – of them.

As far as the proverbial crossroads go, this fight fits the bill for both men who stand at something of a juncture in their careers. Will Canelo become a major PPV star, eagerly waiting to fill the void of veterans like Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather who are admittedly getting a bit long in the tooth? Or, will Lara’s technical prowess carry the day and catapult him into greater exposure and more big money fights? A loss for either man is more like three, while a win – though vital – will invariably carry them slowly, but incrementally forward along the ladder to stardom.