By Bob Smith: Obviously, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (44-1-1, 31 KOs) is a very skilled and talented boxer who has had an impressive string of wins, and just barely did enough to outpoint Trout and Lara. His only loss is to Floyd Mayweather Jr, but really who can fault him for that, and after all, he is still learning and is only 24 years old.
Canelo is also a naturally big junior middleweight, who rehydrates to the mid-160s or even the low 170s on fight night, and has not only tremendous power, very skillful combinations, and in addition a decent jab and good inside game. Kirkland, by contract, is a typical brawler, who goes non-stop in attack mode after round 1, and is relatively easy to hit. So how could a fight between Canelo and Kirkland be a toss up? Should a contest between them not be a clear Canelo victory?
In my opinion, both yes and no. If Canelo boxes Kirkland as skillfully as Carlos Molina did, it will be an easy unanimous victory for Canelo. The problem is that while Canelo is a skillful boxer, he is not nearly as skillful as Molina, and even now Canelo has yet to rise to his true potential as a boxer, while Molina has achievements that far exceed his physical gifts. I don’t know that Canelo will have the patience to fight a “boring” fight by using his jab to keep Kirkland at a distance and plastering his face with combinations and uppercuts if he tries to come inside. He may do this for a few rounds then gas out, or may just tire of this kind of fight and go toe to toe with Kirkland at some point.
And this is where he would find himself in quite a bit of trouble. Put simply, Kirkland is a beast in the ring. He is way underrated due to his legal issues, the flash knockout when he left his usual trainer Anne Wolfe, and due to his at times weak defense. In his fights against Alfredo Angulo and Glen Tapia, who both tried to go toe to toe with him, he threw 70-80 power punches per round, and both foes took enormous punishment before being knocked out in 6 rounds. But it was not the amount of punches so much as the relentless pressure that was so difficult for his opponents to handle, and I think Canelo, who is more of a boxer-puncher, would have a lot of trouble with this pressure as well.
Canelo looks best against relatively slow, thuggish and plodding punchers, with decent to good power, such as Angulo. He looks worst against skillful tactical fighters who make effective use of the ring, or even run, as did Lara. But Canelo, who takes frequent breaks, who likes to load up on his punches and then relax for a bit, has never faced the relentless, swarming pressure of James Kirkland. For instance, in his most recent bout against undefeated prospect Glen Tapia, according to compubox, ” Kirkland was an absolute power punching machine, landing an avg. of 54 power shots per round- FOUR TIMES THE 154-LB AVG.. Mandingo’s 73 power shots landed in round four is a CompuBox 154-lb record.” This was only six months ago, and he trains like a beast as well – the unorthodox but very intense training methods of Anne Wolfe have proven to be very beneficial for him in the ring.
What would a Canelo vs Kirkland fight look like? Perhaps Canelo would dominate the first few rounds, and land his jab well and fire off a few successful combinations, but after the feeling out period of the first few rounds, I see Canelo having some problems in an all-out war, which is what a James Kirkland fight almost inevitably turns into at some point. Will Kirkland be the first person to knock Canelo down? He certainly has a better chance than Trout, Mayweather, Angulo, or Lara. So, while it would be foolish not to pick as skillful and experienced a fighter as Canelo, and though I did favor him against Angulo and Trout (though not against Mayweather), I would not be surprised at all to see at TKO or KO victory for Kirkland if they fight. Equally, I would not be surprised to see a Canelo KO or TKO or a Canelo unanimous decicison. But a fight between them will be an exciting match, and if and when it turns to war, really anything can happen.
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