By Dan Ambrose: Max Kellerman of HBO is giving Miguel Cotto (38-4, 31 KO’s) a good chance of beating WBC middleweight champion Sergio Martinez (51-2-2, 28 KO’s) on Saturday night if Martinez is physically deteriorated from old age and injuries. Kellerman feels that Cotto has failed each time he’s stepped up against good world class opposition in the past, and that the only time he succeeded was against Shane Mosley.
“This would be Cotto’s best win of his career. He’s never beaten an elite fighter except once with Shane Mosley,” Kellerman said to ESPN. “He’s going to need to concentrate on his body in the early rounds. With Freddie Roach now as his trainer, it looks like he’s becoming the kind of fighter he once was earlier in his career. I also think it’s going to take a little help from Sergio. Sergio Martinez is physically diminished. He may be a half step slower. Certainly he’s had enough injuries to diminish him. If Sergio’s not 100% himself, if he’s a diminished version of himself and doesn’t have the mobility he once had, Cotto has a good shot to win. Cotto’s best chance for a knockout or knockdown is a left hook to the body.”
Cotto has failed when he’s stepped it up in the past, and he’ll very likely fail in this fight unless Sergio’s knee gives him problems. Sergio’s knee problems are Cotto’s best chance at winning the fight, especially now that the New York State Athletic Commission won’t let Sergio where his knee brace on his surgically repaired knee. It must be a new rule that they created about knee braces, because Yuri Foreman wore a knee brace in his fight against Cotto four years ago and no one said anything about it.
If Martinez is unable to move like he needs to, he’s going to stand in his tracks and unload everything he has on Cotto. With the kind of power that Martinez has, I’m not sure that Cotto will be able to deal with him in a one on one battle. Cotto has fallen apart each time he’s faced someone good with power in the past. Manny Pacquiao and Antonio Margarito blew him out. Margarito looked to be in the process of getting to Cotto in their rematch in 2011 when the referee suddenly halted the fight after the 9th.
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