So far in 2014, the boxing pay-per-view advantage appears to be with HBO. HBO might have dodged a bullet by not making a counteroffer to keep Floyd Mayweather Jr. from going to Showtime. Mayweather marketed himself towards the Mexican fan base who wants to see him lose against one of their countrymen. If Golden Boy does not have a Mexican champion to offer Mayweather, the only other option is fight a superstar like in the past Miguel Cotto or Shane Mosley to achieve high pay-per-view numbers.
Fortunately, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez was a boxing star and a powerful paper champion, but Golden Boy was forced to use him due to the poor pay-per-view numbers Mayweather had against Robert Guerrero. Even with no credible wins, Canelo was able to draw in many Mexican fans as for the first 39 fights and 7 years of his professional career were strategically based in Mexico. As for Guerrero, an unofficial statement made by head of Showtime Sports Stephen Espinoza claimed that they felt comfortable with one million pay-per-view buys and it will take weeks to add up all the numbers, but no exact figure was ever released. Now over two weeks after the Maidana, there are still no numbers.
Regardless how competitive the Mayweather vs. Marcos Maidana fight was, Maidana was an unknown boxer to most casual fans and was still a huge underdog going into the fight. Interestingly, Mayweather has created a dilemma with his undercards. In the lead up to the Maidana fight, most people were interested in the undercard selection rather than the fight itself. He is now expected to deliver on his card and as expensive as the most recent undercard was, three one one-sided fights will not justify.
As for Manny Pacquiao, fighting a rematch against Tim Bradley to justify the previously controversial loss against Bradley was guaranteed to be fewer than one million buys especially since his road to the rematch included a knock out loss to Juan Manuel Marquez and fighting a light welterweight Brandon Rios who was also coming off a loss in a Asian market that had no demand for the fight. If a Mayweather-Maidana II or Pacquaio-Marquez V happened latter this year, both fights have the potential of generating about the same amount of pay-per-view buys, but HBO can potentially create a better overall strategy.
There is no doubt HBO’s Cotto vs. Sergio Martinez so far is going to be the biggest boxing pay-per-view event this year and no undercard is required. The outcome of the fight will be very interesting. If the favored Martinez wins, it is almost guaranteed that Pacquiao will fight him. Martinez has already stated he was willing to fight Cotto at a 156 catch weight and still has one more contracted fight with HBO. As the bigger star, Pacquiao will capitalize on that statement and Bob Arum will likely make sure his fighter gets all the possible advantages now that he has resigned with Top Rank. Pacquiao has already made the statement he is willing to fight the winner of that fight and this will then easily become the biggest boxing pay-per-view event which Showtime cannot match even with Floyd on their side. If Cotto wins, he has the most to gain from all of this. Both Cotto and Pac are trained by Freddie Roach, but it most likely Cotto will get another trainer for that fight to happen. From a money and legacy perspective, both Mayweather and Pacquiao will jump at the chance to fight someone they defeated in a championship fight in a weight class neither man has fought in. Both are in need of higher pay-per-view numbers and Cotto would absolutely deliver in the long term. Unknown are the full contract details between Showtime and Mayweather, but I can guarantee Showtime’s interests are on the financial aspects and not keeping Floyd undefeated. Naturally, there are contract obligations Floyd has to meet and the corporate pressures will force him to take riskier fights if it means more money.
Mayweather has already mentioned that he will fight September 13, but HBO can easily stick a Cotto-Pac or a Martinez-Pac on September 6 which will create a bigger demand than any Mayweather vs. Golden Boy fighter will generate including Maidana. That will easily force under one million pay-per-view buys for Floyd. As mentioned, Cotto has the most to gain from this if he wins as a free agent he can jump from Showtime and HBO. Pacquiao will be at disadvantage if Cotto wins, the catch weight will be in Cotto’s favor this time. Pacquiao has never weighed more than 148 pounds at weigh-in for any one of his fights and to fight for 160 pound belt he will have to weigh at least 155 pounds if Cotto gives him that opportunity. Cotto will not be a drained 145 pound fighter like he was in their first encounter. The fact is Pac’s declining pay-per-view numbers compared to the numbers expected with the Cotto-Martinez will generate this year will increase Cotto’s negotiating powers in a Pac fight. Adding to the fact Pac’s recent performances are steadily on the decline and Arum’s willingness to accept anything Cotto asks for knowing he can easily fight Floyd or Canelo can create advantages for Cotto that will help him redeem his loss against Pac. This will be an extremely risky fight for Pacquaio and an opportunity for Cotto to skyrocket once again.
Mayweather will also have a huge issue if a Pac-Cotto fight happens this year. In order to meet his contract obligations (whatever they are), it is most likely Showtime will want the winner to fight Mayweather. Pacquiao would have claimed a division Mayweather has yet to reach, and if Mayweather’s pay-per-view numbers are on a decline too, Pac and Cotto will have more negotiating power especially if Cotto wins and has two over one million pay-per-view buy events in 2014. Mayweather has been fighting allot more recently, and has weighed well under 150 pounds in all his fights with Showtime (including Canelo where he stated he walked into the ring at 146), he did not look too impressive against Maidana, and Cotto gave Mayweather a competitive fight. Cotto owes neither Pacquiao nor Mayweather any favors. They will need him more unless they decide to fight each other or continue to have rematches that will not generate huge numbers. Martinez as a victor will have to agree to whatever Pac wants, but Cotto as a victor, Pac will have to agree with whatever Cotto asks for. If Cotto were to defeat Pac, the demand for a Mayweather fight will go through the roof. Cotto can force Floyd to meet on his terms at middleweight because Cotto’s pay-per-view numbers will be more relevant and Showtime’s pressure to make the fight happen. Overall, I view all the fights mentioned as 50/50 fights now, but Cotto has the opportunity to capitalize on the feud between Mayweather/Golden Boy and Top Rank. This year, HBO pay-per-view boxing will be the clear winner without Floyd Money Mayweather.
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