by Peter Broderick: It’s difficult to believe that nearly 6 months have elapsed since George Groves shocked the world by flooring Carl Froch in round one of their much anticipated first clash. The four time world champion had only been dropped once previously and although the fight was stopped controversially in the 9th round, It was one of the most exciting fights in recent history; what should have been a four round blow-out by the defending champion was turned into a grueling war, when Groves decided to ignore the script and meet Froch in the center of the ring and beat him at his own game.
This Saturday the contest will finally come to its belated conclusion in what will be one of the biggest fights in British and world history when both fighters will meet one more time in front of 80,000 people in Wembley Stadium, London.
Groves’ step up.
When the first fight was announced Groves was clearly the faster fighter and had excellent technique which he had displayed against all of his previous opponents, few of whom were allowed to hang around until the final bell, but the gulf in class between these opponents and Carl Froch, who only had a single unavenged defeat, was immense and it was difficult to see how well Groves could perform against an opponent at the top level. However, I always had the feeling that Groves belonged at this level, in fact I wrote an article on this site in 2012 entitled ‘George Groves: World Champion in 2013’ which described what I thought were his best attributes and why he could be champion, I thought he was capable of beating any super-middleweight in the world except for Andre Ward back then and I think the same now. I thought Groves would beat Froch the first time but I was wrong. Still, I think the same this time, I think it’ll be more conclusive this time and I will explain why.
Controversial Stoppage.
I predicted Groves to win their first outing and I thought the stoppage in the 9th round was early, however, at the point of the stoppage I felt it was highly like that Froch would knock Groves out, the reason being that Groves was making mistakes both offensively and defensively, these are mistakes that a fresh, energetic Groves never makes, he’s got the best jab in the division and has lightning fast hands for someone who walks around at about 175lbs, he has extremely good reactions also which allow him to keep his hands low to save energy in a similar manner to Sergio Martinez or Joe Calzaghe. But when Groves threw everything he had at Froch for 9 rounds and he still hadn’t gotten rid of him he got very tired. Unluckily for Groves he was in the ring with a guy who’s renowned for having a great chin and a huge amount of heart.
It’s true that Groves had dominated the fight up until the stoppage and it’s true that Froch had minimal success throughout, but that small bit of success was a potential turning point, Groves was hurt, a hurt he could have spared himself by simply swallowing his pride and taking a knee. I don’t think Froch would definitely have knocked him out, but on the other hand I don’t think Groves would have had things all his own way until the final bell either, but anyone who saw Amir Khan beat Marcos Maidana or Sergio Martinez beat Julio Chavez Jr will know that being hurt once doesn’t mean you’re beaten, especially when you’ve been controlling a fight. At the time of the stoppage, in my opinion, it was about 60/40 in favour of Groves to win, which isn’t such a huge slice in his favour considering how well he’d dominated the fight to that point.
Prediction.
The reason I’m backing Groves again this time is because what I’ve seen in the first fight reassures me in my belief that Groves is faster, stronger, and more agile, has better footwork and is much better technically than Froch. Froch on the other hand has a granite chin and a determination that lets him survive what 90% of fighters couldn’t. But while these are valuable traits and not to be underestimated, I think Groves’ superior boxing abilities will win him the fight if he fights smart. By fight smart I mean that if he manages to catch Froch cold like he did in the first fight he needs to commit to getting rid of him instead of letting him limp through the fight, because if Groves throws the kitchen sink at him again, over 9 rounds, and then starts to run out of steam late on we’ll be watching a repeat of the last fight.
His best chance is to fight on the back foot to an extent, only trade when he needs to, forget about pleasing the crowd and instead, steal rounds, save energy for late on and then counter when Froch is desperate if the opportunity presents itself or else simply limp over the line to a decision win. Ironically, I actually think this is what Froch will be hoping for as this will present Froch with the chance to cut the ring off, forcing Groves into a corner and then hammering him to the body to take his speed away. But you can’t hit what you can’t catch and I think Groves with his younger legs will be too much for Froch on this occasion and I think Groves will win by a clear unanimous decision. Whoever wins, it’ll be a great fight and both fighters deserve credit for being brave enough to face each other again after the damage they both took in their previous encounter.
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