Pacquiao vs. Bradley II: Speculations and Predictions

By Jay McIntyre: Why should you watch the rematch between Manny Pacquiao (55-5-2, 38 KO’s) and Timothy Bradley (31-0-0-1, 12 KO’s)? The short answer: why not? To elaborate, this fight becomes something of a cross-roads (as many do) for both men. When we consider the longevity and dominance of Manny Pacquiao’s career, against the flawless record of Timothy Bradley – who still appears to be surging force in the welterweight ranks – we must give ourselves a moment to reflect.

To see two men both talented in their own way, both poised to move forward with their respective careers, and when both are still quite relevant, is truly a moment to appreciate. There are awful mismatches, painful decisions, and random acts of skulduggery in the sport of boxing, but let us be thankful that tomorrow night we get to see a fight among relative equals. If you are interested to see how Pacquaio stacks up against legitimate talent then this will be your litmus test. On the other hand, if you want to see if Bradley can make lightning strike twice, then you certainly can’t miss tomorrow night. Either way, this rematch is expected to be one of the highlights of this year’s boxing schedule.

To bring yourself up to speed as to what each man is capable of doing please peruse my previous analyses of both men:

Manny Pacquiao:

http://a-neutral-corner.blogspot.ca/2014/03/my-two-cents-part-one-meditations-on.html

Timothy Bradley:

http://a-neutral-corner.blogspot.ca/2014/04/my-two-cents-part-two-desert-storm.html

Bringing it all together

Manny Pacquiao did more things right in their first fight than Timothy Bradley. However, the few things Timothy Bradley did well, he did them often enough to convince two of the three people that mattered most. Here are a few of the finer things that each man did throughout their first encounter…

Manny Pacquiao:

• landing power punches
• head movement
• outside control of lead foot
• winning exchanges in the pocket
• using the jab as a set up

While Pacquiao outstruck Bradley, he did not ‘out throw’ him, and this may have swayed the judges. Furthermore, Pacquiao did take time off from the middle rounds onward and although he was never in any serious jeopardy, it goes without saying that the judges probably awarded the ring generalship and effective aggression to Bradley.

My Speculation

Leading up to the fight Pacquiao seemed to be in his typical understated form. Pacquiao doesn’t usually say much in order to hype up his impending fights and perhaps it is because of this void of silence that Bradley feels that he must take up the mantle of the vocal opponent. Even during the staredown at the weigh-in Bradley persisted with his strategy of talking at Pacquiao while Pacquiao simply smiled in response. I believe that this is a wise effort on the part of Bradley to make Pacquiao overly aggressive as it is a common truth in boxing that when I fighter forgets his brain, he forgets his feet. This

Pacquiao came into this fight at 145 lbs while Bradley weight 145.5 lbs. and while half a pound is not that much, it was clear that Bradley sported then more muscular frame than the Filipino. Is Bradley interested in the force inherent with muscularity in an effort to knock out Pacquiao? Perhaps. If this is indeed the case, he may find that as a double-edged sword. Pacquaio for his own part looked slim and lean and perhaps he is hoping to derive his power from his speed – which is rather characteristic of him.

Teddy Atlas may have recently predicted that Bradley will win because Pacquaio has too many internal and external pressures swirling around him. I always think there is a lot of wisdom in what Atlas says, he can read fighters and size them up pretty well. Despite his mixed results with predictions he knows what he is talking about – one can easily argue that Mike Tyson’s technical acumen and dedication was at its finest under Atlas’ tutelage, and he also navigated an erratic Michael Moorer to heavyweight gold in the 1990’s. Be that as it may, I am not wholly convinced that Pacquiao spends his life looking through the rearview mirror at his defeats. He also managed to stick to a dedicated game plan against Brandon Rios while his homeland was being battered by Typhoon Haiyan, and if that’s not a distraction when boxing, I’m not sure what is. It also gave him the confidence to test his chin against a harder puncher than Bradley.

Prediction

Manny Pacquiao via unanimous decision

If Manny Pacquiao adheres to a consistently airtight game plan he has all the tools to defeat Bradley. If, however, his stamina begins to wane and he fails to maintain the consistency which led him to victories over the likes of Miguel Cotto, then he will ultimately risk losing the fight to a judges verdict. This is not to take anything away from Bradley, who has clearly shown that he can hang with the best, but in my eyes, this is Pacquiao’s fight to lose. As with all things, looking into a crystal ball to determine the future can be specious at best, but we look at what the data tells us and make inferences according to that information. Sometimes though, the deeds of others can become something of a curve ball in our lives that we fail to predict. To invoke the past, consider this: when middleweight anti-hero Harry Greb fought defensive specialist Tiger Flowers on August 19th, 1926 he lost a rematch that was even more controversial than his first fight with Flowers. The reason? The judges felt that they did not want to be accused of favouring Greb by ‘righting’ an initial wrong. The lesson? There’s a fine line between being self-aware and being self-conscious. Let’s hope that, no matter how the fight plays out and no matter who wins, we see some excitement not marred by the stupidity of others.

Follow me on Twitter @JayMcintyre83
Visit my blog: a-neutral-corner.blogspot.ca