By Bob Smith: Late last year, on 10/6/2013, noted boxing expert Bob Smith published an article on Boxing News 24 titled “Who wins: Cotto vs. Alvarez?”
Here is the link:
http://www.boxingnews24.com/2013/10/who-wins-cotto-vs-alvarez/
In it, he argued that by the standard of how each of them did against Floyd Mayweather Jr., he would favor Cotto in a contest between them due to the superior defense of Cotto. He rightly pointed out that Canelo only landed 1 punch per round more than Cotto on average against Mayweather (117 landed to 105 landed), but Cotto held Mayweather to a 26% (!) connect rate whereas his connect rate against Alvarez was 46%.
He offered Canelo the following sage advice: “I would advise Canelo to take another fight or two before he attempts to take on Cotto, ideally against a semi-skilled brawler or against Carlos Molina. If he fights Molina first, then he can determine the conditions of a fight with Cotto and that just might be enough for him to pull off the victory, as he did with Trout.”
Alfred Angulo was that semi-skilled brawler and Canelo really shined against him. Angulo does have power it is true, but his lack of speed and defense allowed Canelo to showcase his own power, blistering combinations, and ring IQ. This fight was both a real challenge and an important confidence builder for Canelo.
The question then for Cotto is: should he even take the Canelo fight this year? He already has a fight with Sergio Martinez scheduled, and Bob Smith does not give him much of a chance:
http://www.boxingnews24.com/2014/02/2014-the-year-of-sergio-martinez/
Mr. Smith even argued that Cotto “lacks the power to hurt Martinez, the speed to bother him, or the defensive skill to adapt to the unorthodox style of Martinez.” after of course noting that Cotto is a Hall of Fame level fighter. Given the prediction of Mr. Smith, it might not be wise for Cotto to take on Canelo after a defeat in which he did not fight competitively.
I think that while Cotto taking on Sergio Martinez is at the same time a legacy fight and a chance for a big paycheck, Cotto will not be able to resist taking on Canelo after a Sergio Martinez loss, perhaps with a fight or two in between, that is, if Canelo will have a fight with him. But at that point, with all of the wars that Cotto has been through, and after having had a thorough beating from Sergio Martinez, a much diminished Cotto will not be able to compete effectively with Alvarez. Though Cotto will frustrate Alvarez with his jab, with his flurries and with his effective defense, Canelo will clearly control the fight and likely win a UD.
In fact, the hatred and envy Canelo received after a really impressive victory against a game Angulo is a surer sign of his superstar status and quality then all of the rave reviews he received before the inevitable Mayweather loss. Canelo has a bright future, and should be an exciting match up against the rest of the junior middleweight division (save for Floyd), and perhaps the middleweight division in the future. He is a step or two above everyone else in the division, and that includes the Charlos, Molina, Lara, Kirkland, Andrade, or anyone else.
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