Maidana V Mayweather: Assessing Maidana’s chances

By B.G.B - 03/24/2014 - Comments

mayweatherBy B.G.B: Straight to the point, it’s obvious that WBA welterweight champions Marcos Maidana (35, 31 KO’s) is a massive underdog going into the biggest fight of his life against pound for pound King Floyd Mayweather Jr (45-0, 26 KO’s) on May 3rd at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada. Mayweather has superior hand speed, footwork, accuracy, defense, height and reach. The only attribute Maidana can and will rely on is his superior power, but how far will power take him?

Maidana can be and has been out-boxed in the past by Devon Alexander the former IBF welterweight champion. He also has losses to Amir Khan and Andriy Kotelnik. However, both those fights were closely contested that saw Marcos having some significant success. He very nearly knocked Khan out in the 10th round in an action packed fight which saw Khan edge out a victory. Some argue that Maidana should have been awarded the victory against Kotelnik, although I personally saw that as a close fight that could have gone either way. In retrospect to these losses, it can really be argued that Maidana has only truly been out-boxed by Alexander, a much underrated fighter himself. So, what can we gather from an analysis of Maidana’s previous loses in comparison to Mayweather?

Alexander is perhaps the only man in boxing to have had a relatively easy night against Maidana. Every other opponent he has faced has felt the power of the heavy handed Argentine. The blue print was made by Alexander, not Kahn or Kotelnik, and it would seem typical that Marcos was not given a re-match by either of them. Alexander, however, worked Maidana out, used excellent boxing skills and hand speed, and possess an underrated work rate. Work rate against a fighter like Maidana is absolutely essential and Alexander showcased that. Now, although Mayweather undoubtedly possess the boxing skills required to defeat Marcos, he does not throw, on average, as many punches as Alexander per round. Mayweather actually averages around 38 punches per round, in comparison to Alexander’s 75, a significant difference. Low work rate against Maidana, and you end up taking an exhausting beating like Adrien Broner. Amir Khan, a fighter that throws on average over 80 punches per round, still could not keep Marcos away for the entirety of the fight.

Focusing on Maidana’s boxing it’s clear that he is flat footed, lacks hand speed and is not particularly difficult to hit. However his power is enough to threaten any fighter that is not at the top level of his performance. He throws unorthodox, looping shots and although at times looks slightly wild, he still manages to impose himself on world level fighters. Taking this into account, is it so farfetched to suggest he will not land a shot on Mayweather? Is it living in dream land to suggest Maidana will not get a single chance to put pressure on Mayweather? The answer is no, it is not. This is boxing and power punchers can defy the odds.

Taking everything mentioned into consideration my prediction for the fight remains the same. I absolutely expect Mayweather to win this fight. Mayweather has defeated brilliant pressure fighters in the past, a prime and undefeated Ricky Hatton, a confident and conditioned Miguel Cotto are two victories that stand out. Other tough fighters such as Arturo Gatti and Diego Corrales are examples of toughness not being enough. However, my point is that Maidana does have a chance. He looks to be in his prime at 30 years old, he’s a world champion coming off the biggest win of his career. Yes he was easily out-boxed by a very skilled boxer in Alexander, a fighter that is not as good as the pound for pound king, but perhaps youth and work rate saw Alexander threw. Mayweather is not Alexander. He is not young and does not throw as many punches. Even the greats all have their bogyman, why can’t Marcos be Mayweathers?



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