Froch vs Groves II – What’s Going to Happen Differently?

By Michael Byrne - 02/13/2014 - Comments

froch0567By Michael Byrne: So the Carl Froch – George Groves rematch has been announced for 31st May, and it’s time to start wondering what will be different a second time round. Groves surprised everyone last time out. It doesn’t matter if you’re George Groves’s biggest fan, it doesn’t even matter if you’re Geroge Groves himself; you WERE surprised when Froch hit the canvas in the first round.

Yes, we all knew Groves has power, and some of us understood he has the timing and movement to be able to find Froch’s chin consistently. But absolutely no one could have predicted Froch hitting the mat in the first round and getting up on shaky legs.

Froch got to the top of the game by taking Jean Pascal’s undefeated record, and kept himself there with ten more back-to-back title fights, and he relied above all on his granite chin to do it. However, Groves had him down once and hurt very often, before a brief resurgence in the ninth from Froch seen referee Howard John Foster make one of the worst calls we’ve seen in a long time. We’ll never know what would have happened in that first fight, but we do now have a rematch. However, things are different this time round.

Arguments for Froch: It seems that Froch underestimated Groves first time out. Maybe because he is arrogant and overconfident, or maybe because there was just no way of knowing quite how good Groves would be. Groves has lost his surprise factor, and Froch will be ready this time. Although the stoppage was absolutely ludicrous, Froch was finally having success in the ninth round. This suggests two things: Froch is more dangerous than Groves in the later rounds, and/or Froch was adapting to Groves. Looking at Groves vs Degale, Groves definitely has a high-pace, 12-round engine, which suggests Froch was gaining some ability to take Groves’s shots, to time them, and to fight back. If nothing else, Froch is a truly determined warrior with a solid, solid chin.

 

Arguments for Groves: His fight with De Gale was widely viewed in the UK and was a 50-50 fight, but the Froch fight was so much bigger. Groves had never seen anything like that before and your first occasion of such magnitude can be difficult to deal with. Groves seemed to do well with it: he dropped Froch and still remained calm and rooted to his game plan, but perhaps we can expect even more composure this time. Experience always helps. Also, Froch took a dangerous amount of flush right hands to the chin and kept battling. Whilst this could have had the effect of demoralising Groves, it didn’t. However, we don’t yet know what physical effect it might have had on Froch. Froch is 36 and has been in war after war, and this could well have been one too many for him. It certainly can’t have helped Froch. Both men are now explicitly aware that Groves can both outbox and hurt Froch; Groves will delight in this and wreak further havoc in the pre-fight build-up. Froch’s confidence in the last build-up looked suspect, and on one occasion he genuinely did look close to tears. This time round, the large portion of Froch’s argument (‘You’ve never fought anyone’, ‘You’re immature’, ‘I’m going to flatten you’) has subsided, and all he really has now are his belts which he doesn’t necessarily deserve, and he will doubtless be shouting something like, ‘I beat you last time and I will beat you again’, even everyone knows he didn’t really beat him.

The argument for Groves seems in some way stronger, but it’s so hard to call. Even though Froch knows what he is dealing with this time, I think we can still expect the early rounds to sway in Groves’s favour. Of course, Froch could come out and jump on Groves like he did with Bute, but after seeing Groves’s power and timing on his backhand that seems unlikely. Look for Froch to come on strong in the later rounds. I can see it being very close, a late stoppage or possibly a split/majority decision, maybe even a draw. How unsatisfying a draw would be!

Final thought: this should be an absolute thriller. If I have to choose, it’s a very hard-earned points win for St George. Excited to see if Eddie Hearn can put together a deserving undercard for this.



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