Return of the Pac?: Why Pacquiao will return to form against Brandon “Bam-Bam” Rios

By Boxing News - 11/23/2013 - Comments

pac76544By James Harrison: Our most recent memory of Manny Pacquiao (54-5-2, 38 KO) in the ring is of a face-down and unconscious fighter– frozen at the hands of arch-rival, Juan Manuel Marquez. There are experts and fans equally paralyzed in this moment that give him little chance of a return to “greatness” because of it.

However, there is evidence suggesting that Pacquiao is not as bad-off as many think. A stylistic analysis explains why we’ve seen such contrast in recent bouts and why he’ll be victorious against Brandon Rios (31-1-1, 23 KO) on Saturday.

Pacquiao was not able to knock out Joshua Clottey, Shane Mosley or Timothy Bradley. These three men avoided being stopped by defending or “sticking and moving”, instead of trying to match him during dangerous exchanges.

2010. Clottey remained tentative throughout his fight with Pacquiao, standing center-ring and blocking punches. His refusal to engage frustrated an indefatigable Pacquiao, who failed to provoke him by playfully slapping him on both sides of his head. Leather repeatedly met leather, to the rhythm of HBO-announcer Jim Lampley’s “bang!” sound effects, as Pacquiao cruised to an ugly unanimous decision. About a year later, we’d see a similar scenario.

2011. Shane Mosley (at 39 years old) fought Manny Pacquiao fresh off a loss in which he solidified his power by stunning Floyd Mayweather Jr. twice. He showed confidence in that power until he was dropped hard in the third, and immediately went in to survival mode. Pacquiao again urged his opponent to push the action as Mosley became quite content with hugging this one out. The crowd booed as Pacquiao beat a defensive-minded opponent, forming a pattern that would be repeated.

2012. Timothy Bradley showed his now signature defense, craftiness and heart by scoring enough for many to award him the first two rounds. Pacquiao gradually began to take over the fight. Bradley’s inability to hurt Pacquiao kept him defensive and constantly moving away from his opponent. The footwork, head movement and use of angles were enough to survive; but not win the controversial split decision he was awarded in the eyes of many.

In these three cases, avoiding dangerous exchanges helped ensure survival. The movement and defense took away opportunities for the “Pac-Man” to score and finish big.

Pacquiao typically is at his best when matched against opponents that are very aggressive. In contrast to the styles of the pugilist mentioned above, the fighters mentioned below gave him that window of opportunity.

2009. Manny faced off against Ricky Hatton who was 45-1 at the time. Despite the addition of Floyd Mayweather Sr. as a defensive tutor, Hatton showed little regard for protecting himself. He did not heed the warning that came in the form of an early knockdown (in round one). Determined to “slug it out”, he advanced Pacquiao unilaterally, until he was knocked out in the second. This consequence for lack of defense and lateral movement would befall another opponent a year later.

2010. Pacquiao fought Antonio Margarito. With little emphasis on angles or movement, Margarito’s strategy would rely on working the body early, staying in front of his opponent and cashing in on an opponent’s limited mobility late. Aside from landing one big body-shot, Margarito spent the length of the bout stalking Pacquiao head-on to no avail. This stalking caused him to get hit frequently, until he lost by TKO, suffering a broken orbital bone.

Both of these fighters used little defense or head movement. Their pugnacious commitment to go toe-to-toe was no match for the powerful southpaw. And Brandon Rios has these same habits.

Rios has made a career out of standing and trading. Rios went 1-1 against Mike Alvarado in two hard-fought displays of power and will. He was rocked hard and often in both. Rios played the stalker in his win over Richard Abril, proving his willingness to eat shots in exchange for landing his own.

Rios’s slight advantages in height and reach will be nullified because of his tendency to fight in close. Rios’s aggressiveness will ensure a high accuracy rate from Pacquiao. And Pacquiao will likely be the stronger puncher, given his demolition of tougher opposition.

Pacquiao won’t have to deal with the problem of adequate rest that was previously documented in HBO’s 24/7 because Macau, China (the location where the bout will take place) occupies the same time zone as his home in the Philippines. And if silencing the critics wasn’t enough motivation, Pacquiao has promised to fight for the recent flood victims in his country.

Pacquiao said “my aggressiveness and my killer instinct is there”, during a L.A. press conference in reference to his last bout. This seems reasonable after gauging Pacquiao’s performances stylistically rather than chronologically. The younger Rios now seems to be an underdog, fighting for Mexican-American heritage against a man nicknamed the “Mexicutioner.”

Follow the author on twitter @Rob_Van_Ham



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